CHAPTER 5 Financial Markets and Institutions Updated: September 20, 2011
The Capital Allocation Process
Stock Markets and Returns
Stock Market Efficiency
The Capital Allocation Process
In a well-functioning economy, capital (credit) flows efficiently from those who supply capital (credit) to those who demand it.
Suppliers of capital (credit) – individuals and institutions with “excess funds.” These groups are saving money and looking for a rate of return on their investment.
Demanders or users of capital (credit) – individuals and institutions who need to raise funds to finance their investment opportunities. These groups are willing to pay a rate of return on the capital they borrow.
How is capital transferred between savers (Sc) and borrowers (Dc)?
Direct transfers – stocks and bonds, securities
Investment banking house - Underwriting
Financial intermediaries – banks and mutual funds
See Figure 5-1, p. 144 Supply and Demand for Credit
What is a market?
A market is a venue where goods and services are exchanged.
A financial market is a place where individuals and organizations wanting to borrow funds/capital (Dc) are brought together with those having a surplus of funds (Sc).
Types of financial markets
Physical assets vs. Financial assets
Money (short) vs. Capital (long)
Primary (proceeds go to firm) vs. Secondary Mkt. for outstanding securities
Spot (cash) vs. Futures
Public (exchange-traded) vs. Private (banks)
Derivatives – Futures and options
Foreign Exchange – Currency
See Table 5-1, p. 148 - 149
The importance of financial markets to economic growth
Well-functioning financial markets facilitate the flow of capital from investors to the users of capital.
Markets provide savers with returns on their money saved/invested, which provides them money in the future.
Markets provide users of capital with the necessary funds to finance their investment projects.
Well-functioning markets promote economic growth.
Economies with well-developed markets perform better than economies with poorly-functioning markets.
What are derivatives? How can they be used to reduce or increase risk?
A derivative security’s value is “derived” from the price of another security (e.g., options and futures).
Can be used to “hedge” or reduce risk. For example, an importer, whose profit falls when the dollar loses value, could purchase currency futures that do well when the dollar weakens.
Also, speculators can use derivatives to bet on the direction of future stock prices, interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity prices. In many cases, these transactions produce high returns if you guess right, but large losses if you guess wrong. Here, derivatives can increase risk.
Types of financial institutions
Commercial banks – Citizens, Chase
Investment banks – Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan
Mutual savings banks – S&Ls
Life insurance companies
Mutual funds – Vanguard, Fidelity
See Table 5-2, p. 153
Physical location stock exchanges vs. Electronic dealer-based markets
Auction market at a physical location (NYSE) vs. Electronic Dealer market (NASDAQ)
NYSE: 3000 companies
NASDAQ: 2000 companies
Differences are narrowing: Daily volume is equal
Stock Market Transactions
Apple Computer decides to issue additional stock with the assistance of its investment banker. An investor purchases some of the newly issued shares. Is this a primary market transaction or a secondary market transaction? Since new shares of stock are being issued, this is a
primary market transaction.
What if instead an investor buys existing shares of Apple stock in the open market – is this a primary or secondary market transaction? Since no new shares are created, this is a secondary
What is an IPO?
An initial public offering (IPO) is where a company issues stock in the public market for the first time (e.g. Google in 2004). See Table 5-3 on p. 159.
“Going public” enables a company’s owners to raise capital from a wide variety of outside investors. Once issued, the stock trades in the secondary market (NYSE, NASDAQ).
Public companies are subject to additional regulations and reporting requirements.
Historical stock market performance, S&P 500 (1968-2004)
Cap Gains Yld. and Div Yield
You buy a stock today for $50
In one year, you receive DIV = $1
Stock sells for $55 in one year
Div Yield (%) = $1 / $50 = 2%
Cap Gain Yield (%) = $5 Gain / $50 = 10%
Total Return = 2% + 10% = 12%
Historical Stock Returns
SP 500 Return (%):
1/22/1968: -94 (PV)
1/22/2007: 1425 (FV)
N = 39
Solve for I = __________
See Measuring the Market p. 164-165
Where can you find a stock quote, and what does one look like?
Stock quotes can be found in a variety of print sources (Wall Street Journal or the local newspaper) and online sources (Yahoo!Finance, CNNMoney, or MSN MoneyCentral).
What is the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)?
Securities are normally in equilibrium and are “fairly priced.”
Investors cannot “beat the market” except through good luck or better information.
Levels of market efficiency Weak-form efficiency
Can’t profit by looking at past trends. A recent decline is no reason to think stocks will go up (or down) in the future. Stocks follow a “random walk.”
Evidence supports weak-form EMH, but “technical analysis” is still used by “chartists.”
All publicly available information is reflected in stock prices, so it doesn’t pay to over-analyze annual reports looking for undervalued stocks.
Largely true, but superior analysts can still profit by finding and using new information.
All information, even inside information, is embedded in stock prices.
Generally considered to be not true-- insiders can gain by trading on the basis of insider information, but that’s illegal.
Conclusions about market efficiency
Empirical studies suggest the stock market is: Highly efficient in the weak form.
Reasonably efficient in the semistrong form.
Not efficient in the strong form. Insiders have made abnormal (and sometimes illegal) profits.
Behavioral finance Incorporates elements of cognitive psychology to
better understand how individuals and markets respond to different situations.
Implications of market efficiency
You hear in the news that a medical research company received FDA approval for one of its products. If the market is semi-strong efficient, can you expect to take advantage of this information by purchasing the stock?
No – if the market is semi-strong efficient, this information will already have been incorporated into the company’s stock price. So, it’s probably too late …
Implications of market efficiency
A small investor has been reading about a “hot” IPO that is scheduled to go public later this week. She wants to buy as many shares as she can get her hands on, and is planning on buying a lot of shares the first day once the stock begins trading. Would you advise her to do this?
Probably not. The long-run track record of hot IPOs is not that great, unless you are able to get in on the ground floor and receive an allocation of shares before the stock begins trading. It is usually hard for small investors to receive shares of hot IPOs before the stock begins trading.