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Soci252 – Chapter 1 – Stats Start Here

François Nielsen

University of North Carolina Chapel Hill

January 10, 2012

Chapter 1 – Stats Start Here

É Stats Starts Here

Stats Starts Here

É Statistics gets no respect, and

É Statistics courses are not necessarily chosen as fun electives, but

É Statistics can be fun! Learning to think clearly with data will open your eyes to seeing the world more clearly . . .

Stats Starts Here

É Statistics gets no respect, and É Statistics courses are not necessarily chosen as fun electives,

but

É Statistics can be fun! Learning to think clearly with data will open your eyes to seeing the world more clearly . . .

Stats Starts Here

É Statistics gets no respect, and É Statistics courses are not necessarily chosen as fun electives,

but É Statistics can be fun! Learning to think clearly with data will

open your eyes to seeing the world more clearly . . .

What Is (Are?) Statistics?

É *Statistics *(the discipline) is a way of reasoning, along with
collection of tools and methods, designed to help us
understand the world.

É *Statistics *(plural) are particular calculations made from data.
É *Data *are values with a context.

What Is (Are?) Statistics?

É *Statistics *(the discipline) is a way of reasoning, along with
collection of tools and methods, designed to help us
understand the world.

É *Statistics *(plural) are particular calculations made from data.

É *Data *are values with a context.

What Is (Are?) Statistics?

É *Statistics *(the discipline) is a way of reasoning, along with
collection of tools and methods, designed to help us
understand the world.

É *Statistics *(plural) are particular calculations made from data.
É *Data *are values with a context.

What is Statistics Really About?

É Statistics is about variation.

É All measurements are imperfect, since there is variation that we cannot see.

É Statistics helps us to understand the real, imperfect world in which we live.

What is Statistics Really About?

É Statistics is about variation. É All measurements are imperfect, since there is variation that

we cannot see.

É Statistics helps us to understand the real, imperfect world in which we live.

What is Statistics Really About?

É Statistics is about variation. É All measurements are imperfect, since there is variation that

we cannot see. É Statistics helps us to understand the real, imperfect world in

which we live.

What is Statistics Really About? Plots of O-Ring Damage by Launch Temperature

What is Statistics Really About?

É The Challenger accident on 28 Jan 1986 (previous slide) was a tragic example of failure of statistical analysis.

É Using data from previous launches, engineers had plotted
data on damage to o-rings against temperature at launch time
including only cases with non-negligible damage.
É The plot showed no association
É When *all cases are included *the plot shows a clear association:

lower temperature→ greater damage É Had they seen the plot with all cases included they might

have postponed the launch, avoiding the accident

Think, Show, Tell

É There are three simple steps to doing Statistics right:

É first. Know where you’re headed and why.

É is about the mechanics of calculating statistics and making graphical displays, which are important (but are not the most important part of Statistics).

É what you’ve learned. You must explain your results so that someone else can understand your conclusions.

Think, Show, Tell

É There are three simple steps to doing Statistics right:

É first. Know where you’re headed and why.

É is about the mechanics of calculating statistics and making graphical displays, which are important (but are not the most important part of Statistics).

É what you’ve learned. You must explain your results so that someone else can understand your conclusions.

Think, Show, Tell

É There are three simple steps to doing Statistics right:

É first. Know where you’re headed and why.

É is about the mechanics of calculating statistics and making graphical displays, which are important (but are not the most important part of Statistics).

É what you’ve learned. You must explain your results so that someone else can understand your conclusions.

Think, Show, Tell

É There are three simple steps to doing Statistics right:

É first. Know where you’re headed and why.

In Summary

É Statistics can be (and is) fun!

É Statistics gives us a way to work with the variability in the world around us.

É We are embarking on an exciting journey of learning Statistics . . .

In Summary

É Statistics can be (and is) fun! É Statistics gives us a way to work with the variability in the

world around us.

É We are embarking on an exciting journey of learning Statistics . . .

In Summary

É Statistics can be (and is) fun! É Statistics gives us a way to work with the variability in the

world around us. É We are embarking on an exciting journey of learning Statistics

. . .