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This Bachelor Thesis mainly focuses on explaining how presidential hegemony has affected the extent of democratic backsliding in Nicaragua, Costa Rica and El Salvador in the last decades
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Institut für Politische Wissenschaft Bachelor Thesis Gabriel Gonzalez Cruz Glossary Introduction
Institut für Politische Wissenschaft Bachelor Thesis Gabriel Gonzalez Cruz The research gap that this study covers arises from the contemporary study regarding the establishment of presidential hegemony in Latin American countries by Perez- Liñán et al. from 2019, “Presidential Hegemony and Democratic Backsliding in Latin America “, and of democratic backsliding by Nancy Bermeo from 2016 “On Democratic Backsliding”. As mentioned previously, the study of path dependence regarding the long-term development of Central America by James Mahoney from 2001, “Path-Dependent Explanations of Regime Change: Central America in Comparative Perspective”, also served as inspiration for identifying the need for a study which uses path dependence to contextualize the establishment of presidential hegemony in the 21st^ Century in Latin America. However, none of these studies have tried to explain in detail how executive aggrandizement multidimensionally influences democratic backsliding (thus the choice of the 5 previously mentioned causal sub-mechanisms). Therefore, this thesis seeks to integrate the knowledge from these three studies into its theoretical framework, but also attempts to close the knowledge gap regarding contemporary presidential hegemony through a multidimensional causal analysis of the most essential mechanisms that led to democratic backsliding in these three cases. “Presidential Hegemony and Democratic Backsliding in Latin America” by Perez- Liñán et al. provides an important base for this study’s theoretical framework, given that it proved the dire effects of presidential hegemony on democratic backsliding in over 18 countries in Latin America. It also provided the concept of presidential hegemony: This term refers to the executive’s ability to control other institutions, particularly the legislative and the judiciary in the case of their study (Perez- Liñán et al. 2019: 3). Bermeo’s study, “On Democratic Backsliding”, also provided two essential concepts for this thesis. The author describes in her study the concept of democratic backsliding as the state-led debilitation or elimination of any of the political institutions that sustain an existing democracy (Bermeo 2016: 5) and also the concept of executive aggrandizement, which encompasses the gradual and contemporary ways in which elected executives erode democracy by limiting the ability of the opposition to challenge them (Bermeo 2016: 10). Another important concept for this study is the definition of path dependence by James Mahoney, which relates to the choices of key actors during historical juncture moments. These lead to the formation of institutions which perpetuate the specific values encaptured during their foundation (J. Mahoney 2001, S. 111). The method of analysis in this case will be mostly qualitative and seeks to thoroughly illustrate the causal mechanism between presidential hegemony and democratic backsliding to its
Institut für Politische Wissenschaft Bachelor Thesis Gabriel Gonzalez Cruz core, firstly through a systematic analysis and process tracing of the 5 different sub-mechanisms of executive aggrandizement and how they specifically affected democratic backsliding in each case. Secondly, through a comparison of the empirical results from each individual case, in order to identify the relevance of each individual mechanism for the establishment of presidential hegemony and ultimately its influence on the democratic backsliding process. Furthermore, empirical indicators such as the Liberal Democracy Index from V-DEM, but also concrete facts from Bertelsmann Transformation Index country summaries will be implemented to analyze the process of democratic backsliding in each case and also to compare the development of the three countries with one another in the contemplated time continuum. The conclusion of this study will seek to present the reported findings in understandable concepts and ultimately maximize control over alternative explanations for the democratic backsliding process in each case. The case selection in itself strove for representative variation, given when beholding a spectrum from liberal democracy to hardline autocracy, one could place Costa Rica at the high democratic end of the spectrum, El Salvador in the middle between an autocratic and democratic regime, and finally Nicaragua in the low autocratic regime end of the spectrum. The 3 cases selected thus encompass the entire spectrum between a successful democracy and a hardline autocracy, which serves to identify how presidential hegemony can easily establish itself in different contexts or also be greatly limited in others.
Institut für Politische Wissenschaft Bachelor Thesis Gabriel Gonzalez Cruz III. Hypotheses H1a : The higher the influence of the presidential hegemony over the legislative and judiciary, the less institutional checks and balances (horizontal accountability) will be found. H1b : The less effective checks and balances are found, the higher the degree of democratic backsliding will be found in the country. H2a : The larger the influence of presidential hegemony over law enforcement agencies and military, the more repression through the use of force against regime opposition will be found. H2b : The larger the repression through the use of force against regime opposition, the higher the degree of democratic backsliding will be found in the country. H3a: The higher the obstruction of free media by the executive, the less vertical and diagonal accountability will be found. H3b : The less vertical and diagonal accountability demanded from executive, the higher the degree of democratic backsliding will be found in the country. H4a : The higher the amount of constitutional and electoral systems alterations by the executive, the easier it will become for the executive to establish and legitimize its hegemony through institutional means. H4b: The easier it becomes for the executive it to consolidate and legitimize its hegemony through institutional means, the higher the amount of democratic backsliding will be found in the country. H5a: The greater the amount of unhindered corruption scandals, the greater the arsenal of illegal influential mechanisms of the executive will become. H5b : The greater the arsenal of influential illegal mechanisms of the executive, the higher the amount of democratic backsliding will be found in the country.
Institut für Politische Wissenschaft Bachelor Thesis Gabriel Gonzalez Cruz IV. Operationalization A. Executive Aggrandizement
(Figure 1: Own Illustration) **Presidential Hegemony Obstruction of opposition in the legislative (direct
Institut für Politische Wissenschaft Bachelor Thesis Gabriel Gonzalez Cruz
Democratic Backsliding (Figure 3: Own Illustration) Presidential Hegemony Limitation of free media agencies Limitation of freedom of speech Lack of varied media landscape Missing information regarding human rights violations Distortion of executive’s performance (Propaganda) Lack of vertical accountability
Institut für Politische Wissenschaft Bachelor Thesis Gabriel Gonzalez Cruz
(Figure 4: Own Illustration) Presidential Hegemony Constitutional alterations Changes to the electoral system Facilitation of long-term executive ruling by same leader Facilitation of electoral victories
Institut für Politische Wissenschaft Bachelor Thesis Gabriel Gonzalez Cruz B. Democratic Backsliding The operationalization of democratic backsliding is based on the criteria from the study by Pelke and Croissant from 2021 for measuring autocratization episodes: “Conteptualizing and Measuring Autocratization Episodes”. According to this study, autocratization episodes are best measured using V-DEM’s Electoral Democracy Index or Liberal Democracy Index. The start of an episode occurs when there is a decline in one of the indexes which has a threshold of 0.1 ≥ (10% decline on scale of 0-1). The end of an episode is marked by a stagnation of democratic quality of 4 years or when there is an annual increase by ≥ 0.02 points. The extent of democratic backsliding will also be categorized into one of three concepts (Lührmann and Lindberg 2019: 1096): i. Democratic recession: gradual decline in the democratic quality within a democratic regime ii. Democratic breakdown: the collapse of democratic regime towards an authoritarian regime iii. Autocratic consolidation (or autocratic hardening): erosion of democratic qualities within autocracies
Institut für Politische Wissenschaft Bachelor Thesis Gabriel Gonzalez Cruz VI. Empirical Investigation of each Individual Case A. Analysis of 5 Causal Sub-mechanisms in El Salvador The democratizing episode failed in El Salvador during the 20th Century, which led to the establishment of military authoritarianism. The armed forces were closely tied to the government, and their sole aim was to defeat guerrilla groups in the country which posed a threat to their regime. By 1978 security forces roamed the country and thereafter the civil war began in 1980, lasting until
Institut für Politische Wissenschaft Bachelor Thesis Gabriel Gonzalez Cruz for its citizens, which definitely contributes to democratic backsliding in the country through a limitation of civilian liberties. However, it is also of utmost importance to analyze how the media and free speech were also limited in this case to understand the full spectrum of presidential hegemony and repression in El Salvador since Bukele’s rise to power. The executive in El Salvador has definitely repressed the free media in the last years, thus hindering the constitutional right of freedom of speech. Based on the study “How Democracies Die” by Levitsky and Ziblatt from 2018, executive aggrandizement can also take place through a limitation of free media and freedom of speech by the executive. According to the RFS Index of Reporters without Borders, El Salvador was placed as 115th in 2023 when compared in a global scale. Several journalists have been threatened by Bukele after criticizing his government, have been portrayed as „enemies of the people“ and also have been criminalized for covering gang arrests during the whole implementation of his „Mano dura“ politics. There have even been reports about the executive sending police raids to the offices of independent media outlets in El Salvador. Since the pandemic, the executive discredits criticism from the free media by saying that they are aligned with the opposition and has also withheld information from the free press on purpose. The executive even began their own daily newspaper and news program called „El Salvador“, which dedicates itself to creating and spreading propaganda and attacking the opposition. This use of propaganda has led to a biased distortion of the executive’s performance. In this case the lack of a varied media landscape and also intimidation tactics from the executive rule against objective outlets rules out diagonal and horizontal accountability, thus making it easier for the executive to establish its presidential hegemony. Without having to be accountable to its citizens or the media, and also by starting their own media campaign, the executive in El Salvador has been able to create their own political discourse and implement a populist rhetoric to frame any type of opposition as an enemy of the people. Additionally, it is relevant to understand the role of the Supreme Court since Bukele’s rise to power in order to analyze if important changes to the constitution or to the electoral system were achieved. Based on the study “How Democracies Die” by Levitsky and Ziblatt from 2018, executive aggrandizement can take place through alterations to the constitution and electoral system through legal channels. In the case of El Salvador Bukele could not successfully bypass the supreme court to change the constitution, given that the Supreme Court justices in El Salvador get elected for cycles
Institut für Politische Wissenschaft Bachelor Thesis Gabriel Gonzalez Cruz of 9 years and his party did not have any justices in the Court at the time of his election (BTI Country Report El Salvador 2022: 11). A 2/3 majority in parliament is also required to elect the new justices. Furthermore, even if he did get reelected at the end of his presidential term, there are still 4 justices (The Supreme Court has 5 justices in total) that will remain until 2027 which belong to opposition parties (ARENA and FMLN) that could act as a counterweight to Bukele’s presidential hegemony. The Court also condemned his measures to arrest people for breaking the curfew during the pandemic as unconstitutional. In this case the judiciary did indeed manage to limit the executive. However, democratic institutions are only as strong as the will of leaders and people to actually represent them (BTI Country Report El Salvador 2022: 13). This statement relates to the sub-causal mechanism of executive influence over the constitution and electoral system. It implies that if a president has a strong bond to the military and state forces, it becomes extremely difficult to enforce checks and balances by the legislative and judiciary (whose decisions have already been dismissed by Bukele several times). This fact makes it clear that even if the executive cannot directly change the constitution or electoral system, he/she can still choose to disregard it if he has access to the force monopoly through unconstitutional action. Treisman defines corruption in his study “The Causes of Corruption” as the misuse of public office for private gains. This definition relates to executive aggrandizement through an expansion of control through informal/unconstitutional measures. El Salvador scored 38 point out of 100 in the Corruption Perception Index in 2021, thus alluding to a high amount of corruption in the country during Bukele’s term. In this case Bukele has definitely acquired a degree of political immunity from checks and balances through his monopoly of state force, which also facilitates a bypass of the legal framework in El Salvador and has led ultimately to increased democratic backsliding in recent years. Liberal Democracy Index in El Salvador (1990 until 2022)
Institut für Politische Wissenschaft Bachelor Thesis Gabriel Gonzalez Cruz B. Analysis of 5 Causal Sub-mechanisms in Costa Rica In Costa Rica the democratization episode during the 20th Century was indeed successful. Costa Rica has been a progressive democratic regime since 1949 (J. Mahoney 2001: 128). Its army was abolished by the president, Figueres Ferrer, during the transition to democracy after the end of the civil war. The public funds for the military were reinvested into education and universal healthcare, which led to the creation of a functioning social welfare system, the long-term establishment of a democratic political culture and thus to a strong limitation (effective institutions, checks and balances) of presidential hegemony throughout the second half of the 20th Century. The establishment of a liberal democracy in Costa Rica is of utmost contextual importance for this study, given that it conditioned the extent of presidential hegemony and thus democratic backsliding which has taken place in the country in the 21st Century. Such a long-term political tradition of peace and democracy has ensured effective checks and balances, a limited control of law enforcement by the executive, a guarantee of constitutional rights like freedom of speech for the press, a strong judiciary which protects the constitution, and a limitation of significant changes to the electoral system by the executive since 1949. The obstruction of the executive over the legislative is limited by effective checks and balances in Costa Rica. A clear example of this institutional balance could be witnessed after the PAC^4 party won the presidential election on the 8th of August in 2018, thus making Carlos Alvarado Quesada the new president. Even after winning the presidential election, the PAC party only managed to obtain 10 out of the 57 mandates in the Costa Rican parliament^5. According to the empirical indicators for measuring direct influence of the executive over the legislative (Perez- Liñán et al. 2019), the PAC only had 16.3% of the seats in 2018 and thus a relatively low direct influence over the legislative. On the other hand, the PAC had a coalition with the PUSC^6 (won 9 of the 57 mandates) and the PLN^7 (won 17 of the 57 mandates), which allowed it to have a simple majority in parliament. The coalition of all three parties amounted to 36 out of 57 mandates, which corresponds to 63.2% of the seats (Fischer Weltalmanach 2019: 100). However, one must also take into account that the PLN and the PUSC are quite different in regard to their political agenda and values than the PAC. An indirect influence of the executive over the parliament did not lead to democratic backsliding in this case, because the executive was subdued to negotiations within its (^4) “Partido Accion Ciudadana” translates to Civilan Action Party (^5) Parliament in Costa Rica is called the Legislative Assembly (^6) “Partido Union Social Cristiana” translates to Christian Social Union Party (^7) “Partido Liberacion Nacional” translates to National Liberation Party
Institut für Politische Wissenschaft Bachelor Thesis Gabriel Gonzalez Cruz coalition to reign effectively. In this case the executive was not able to obstruct the opposition in the legislative. Another important dimension of executive aggrandizement in this case is the influence of the executive over the military and security forces in the country, whose absence definitely had an impact on the long-term democratic development in Costa Rica. The influence of the executive over law enforcement agencies and the military is limited in Costa Rica. Costa Rica abolished its army after the Civil War in 1948, reinvested the money from the military sector into the public education sector and also created a universal health insurance for all of its citizens. The abolishment of the army is also anchored in the constitution. The fact that the army was abolished more than 70 years ago makes it extremely difficult for a president or for an opposition party to seize power in alliance with an institutional military force. Traditional coups d’état are practically excluded in this case. Even the contemporary state police normally acts in accordance to the constitution and to serve the citizens, always allowing for demonstrations to take place without repression or police abuse. The police forces in Costa Rica^8 are also not equipped to effectively overthrow any government, as all types of automatic weapons (rifles, handguns, machine guns) are forbidden in the country. Only non-automatic pistols are allowed. The lack of an institutional military has definitely limited executive aggrandizement in this case, as this area also relates to the limitation of free speech and repression of the opposition. Without these key instruments, the executive was subdued in this case to act in accordance with the constitution of the country, not intervening in elections, not repressing demonstrations and not interfering with democratically elected officials. The fact that free press is also present in this case limits the executive aggrandizement of the executive even more, as there is a standard of vertical and diagonal accountability towards the executive. According to the causal sub-mechanism based on „How Democracies Die“ (Levitsky and Ziblatt 2018: 24), executive aggrandizement can also take place through a limitation of free media and freedom of speech by the executive. In Costa Rica an established democratic political culture, as well as a tradition of the protection of constitutional rights have allowed for freedom of expression to exist without being limited by the executive. The media spectrum is also quite proliferous in the country, ranging from private, to state-owned media (including university and religious media). One must acknowledge that journalists in Costa Rica can exercise their profession without being hindered. According to the RFS Index of Reporters without Borders, Costa Rica attained the 23rd place in the global ranking in 2023. An active civil society and effective freedom (^8) „Fuerza Publica“ which translates to public force.