AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA, Formulas and forms for Finance. All India Institute of Medical Sciences
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abhijeet-shah

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA, Formulas and forms for Finance. All India Institute of Medical Sciences

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Financial Summary (Consolidated)

Year Ending March (Rs mn)

3Q FY18

3Q FY17

YoY (%)

2Q FY18

QoQ (%)

FY17 FY18 E

FY19 E

FY20E

Net Sales 12,962 14,109 (8.1) 11,227 15.4 58,459 55,907 61,123 62,561 EBITDA 6,304 7,435 (15.2) 5,724 10.1 30,483 25,762 29,665 29,703 APAT 2,074 1,842 12.6 2,347 (11.6) 7,004 8,718 9,438 8,432 Diluted EPS (Rs) 5.9 5.2 12.6 6.7 (11.6) 19.9 24.8 26.9 24.0 P/E (x) 11.0 8.8 8.2 9.1 EV / EBITDA (x) 6.7 8.1 7.6 8.0 RoE (%) 13.9 15.6 15.0 12.1

Consolidated Quarterly Financial

Particulars (Rs mn) 3Q FY18

3Q FY17

YoY (%)

2Q FY18

QoQ (%)

9M FY18

9M FY17

YoY (%)

Net Sales 12,962 14,109 (8.1) 11,227 15.4 43,119 42,188 2.2 Material Expenses 4,996 5,318 (6.1) 4,456 12.1 18,477 16,219 13.9 Employee Expenses 810 670 20.9 644 25.9 2,026 1,912 6.0 Other Operating Expenses 852 686 24.2 403 111.4 2,411 1,793 34.5 EBITDA 6,304 7,435 (15.2) 5,724 10.1 20,205 22,264 (9.2) Depreciation 1,212 1,803 (32.8) 1,260 (3.8) 4,288 6,284 (31.8) EBIT 5,092 5,632 (9.6) 4,464 14.1 15,917 15,980 (0.4) Other Income 454 298 52.1 1,465 (69.0) 2,455 942 160.6 Interest Cost 2,366 3,389 (30.2) 2,356 0.4 7,577 10,067 (24.7) PBT 3,180 2,541 25.1 3,573 (11.0) 10,795 6,855 57.5 Tax 1,106 699 58.2 1,225 (9.7) 3,996 1,774 125.3 APAT 2,074 1,842 12.6 2,347 (11.6) 6,799 5,081 33.8

Margin Analysis

3Q FY18

3Q FY17

YoY (bps)

2QF Y18

QoQ (bps)

9M FY18

9M FY17

YoY (bps)

Material Expenses % Net Sales 38. 5

37. 7

85 39. 7

(115) 42. 9

38. 4

441

Employee Expenses % Net Sales 6.2 4.7 150 5. 7

52 4.7 4.5 17

Other Operating Expenses % Net Sales

6.6 4.9 171 3. 6

298 5.6 4.3 134

EBITDA Margin (%) 48. 6

52. 7

(406) 51. 0

(235) 46. 9

52. 8

(591)

Tax Rate (%) 34. 8

27. 5

727 34. 3

48 37. 0

25. 9

1,114

APAT Margin (%) 16. 0

13. 1

294 20. 9

(491) 15. 8

12. 0

372

Income Statement (Consolidated)

Year ending March (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Net Revenues 51,279 58,459 55,907 61,123 62,561 Growth (%) 33.3 14.0 (4.4) 9.3 2.4 Material Expenses 20,538 22,867 25,184 25,978 26,883 Employee Expenses 2,465 2,726 2,469 2,713 2,993 Other Operating Expenses 1,673 2,384 2,493 2,767 2,982 EBIDTA 26,603 30,483 25,762 29,665 29,703 EBIDTA Margin (%) 51.9 52.1 46.1 48.5 47.5 EBIDTA Growth (%) 20.3 14.6 (15.5) 15.2 0.1 Depreciation 8,533 8,548 5,231 5,754 6,330 EBIT 18,069 21,935 20,531 23,911 23,374 Other Income (Incl EO items) 1,272 1,232 2,587 2,897 3,245 Interest 10,639 13,327 11,595 13,334 14,534 PBT 8,702 9,839 11,522 13,474 12,084 Tax 2,306 2,685 2,881 4,042 3,625 RPAT 6,395 7,154 8,642 9,432 8,459 Minority Interest/Share of associates

4 (1) (77) (6) 27

EO Items 155 150 0 0 0 APAT 6,236 7,004 8,718 9,438 8,432 APAT Growth (%) 14.9 12.3 24.5 8.2 (10.7) Adjusted EPS (Rs/sh) 17.7 19.9 24.8 26.9 24.0 EPS Growth (%) 14.9 12.3 24.5 8.2 (10.7)

Cash Flow (Consolidated)

Year ending March (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Reported PBT 8,702 9,839 11,522 13,474 12,084 Non-operating & EO items (869) (548) (2,510) (2,897) (3,272) Interest expenses 10,639 13,327 11,595 13,334 14,534 Depreciation 8,533 8,548 5,231 5,754 6,330 Working Capital Change (482) 4,032 56,610 873 727 Tax Paid (3,125) (3,106) (2,881) (4,042) (3,625) OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a )

23,398 32,093 79,568 26,496 26,778

Capex (31,591) (27,790) (72,995) (30,026) (27,113) Free cash flow (FCF) (8,193) 4,303 6,573 (3,530) (335) Investments 151 (2,192) 2,587 2,897 3,245 INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b )

(31,440) (29,982) (70,409) (27,129) (23,868)

Share capital Issuance - - - - -

Debt Issuance 23,601 16,339 12,156 12,645 12,645 Interest expenses (14,355) (17,509) (11,595) (13,334) (14,534) Dividend (2,538) (846) (2,023) (2,190) (1,956) FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c )

6,709 (2,016) (1,461) (2,878) (3,845)

NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) (1,333) 94 7,698 (3,511) (935) EO Items, Others 12,244 10,218 - - - Closing Cash & Equivalents 15,008 13,077 20,775 17,264 16,329

Efficiency Analysis

Particulars FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 ROCE 17.38 16.33 13.50 14.55 15.19 ROE / RONW 17.36 17.10 12.89 12.45 13.18 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) measures a company’s profitability from its overall operations by calculating the return generated on the total capital invested in the business (i.e. equity + debt). Return on Equity (ROE) or Return on Net Worth (RONW) measures the amount of profit which the company generates on money invested by the equity shareholders. In short, ROE draws attention to the return generated by the shareholders on their investment in the business. Together these ratios can be used in comparing the profitability of the company with other companies in the same industry.

Valuation Analysis

Consolidated Particulars FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 Total Income from Operations (Rs. Cr.) 3,687.25 3,731.89 3,847.48 5,130.23 5,845.94 Growth (%) 17.78 % 1.21 % 3.10 % 33.34 % 13.95 % PAT (Rs. Cr.) 556.67 459.13 542.35 636.27 715.42 Growth (%) 12.23 % (17.52 %) 18.00 % 17.32 % 12.44 % Earnings Per Share – Basic (Rs. ) 16.75 13.81 16.32 18.09 20.36 Earning Per Share – Diluted (Rs. ) 16.75 13.81 16.32 18.09 20.36 Price to Earnings 6.78 14.02 15.12 12.84 11.00

Outlook And Valuation

Target Price of Rs 274/sh implies 25.1% upside

■ We have value BOT projects on DCF basis with 12.5- 14% WACC. We arrive at Rs 117/sh valuation for the IRB’s BOT portfolio.

■ We have valued EPC standalone at 4x Dec-19E EV/EBIDTA. This is 50% discount to peers as IRB largely executes captive BOT orders and in an event of slowdown in BOT project awards, IRB may get negatively impacted.

We maintain BUY with TP of Rs 274/share. We peg (1) BOT projects at Rs 117/ share, (2) EPC business at Rs 123/share (4x Dec-19E EV/EBIDTA), (3) InvIT stake at Rs 25/sh and (4) Real estate at Rs 10/sh.

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