bhffffffffffffffffffffffff, Formulas and forms for Mathematics. Aston University
weishen-lee
weishen-lee

bhffffffffffffffffffffffff, Formulas and forms for Mathematics. Aston University

13 pages
118Number of visits
Description
bfffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffff
20 points
Download points needed to download
this document
Download the document
Preview3 pages / 13
This is only a preview
3 shown on 13 pages
Download the document
This is only a preview
3 shown on 13 pages
Download the document
This is only a preview
3 shown on 13 pages
Download the document
This is only a preview
3 shown on 13 pages
Download the document
Introduction to Macroeconomics

Introduction to Macroeconomics Course overview

(c) 2007- 2014 Gary R. Evans. May be used for educational purposes only without permission of the author.

Gary R. Evans [email protected]

or [email protected] hmc edu . . • http://www2.hmc.edu

/~evans/hmcgre html.

• Parsons 1261 Tu/Th 1:00 – 2:30 & appt .

• Specialties • policy • entrepreneurship • finance

• Twitter: PITraders

Remember ...

• Reading assignments and exam dates are found at h // 2 h d / / 53 h lttp: www . mc.e u ~evans e cc. tm

• High-quality pdfs of these slides are at htt // 2 h d / / 53l htp: www . mc.e u ~evans e s. m

• If looking for material for any of my classes, always go back to source http://www2.hmc.edu/~evans/hmcgre.html

• I don’t use Sakai for this class

Macroeconomics ( i li d l d )rev ew out ne an ca en ar

1. Reading and reviewing  t t ll li.. no ex s, a on ne  .. all slides posted online prior to the lecture, 1-slide and

2-slide pp 2. Exams and grades  .. 3 exams, equally weighted, new material only  .. grades on generous distribution  .. no homework

3 Policy.  .. attendance not required, but this is a lecture course  .. no videos or recordings without permission  .. P/NC etc. review the rules!

T i l i tiyp ca macroeconom c ques ons:

• What caused the recent recession? • What causes inflation or deflation? • What determines interest rates? • Why do exchange rates fluctuate? • What causes unemployment? • What is our government and Federal

Reserve System doing?

Don’t Worry Be Happy (DWBH) Now sit back and relax and listen – don’t take notes. The next few slides are from the 2013 lectures, and they are not current. You will see them again as the semester proceeds but up to date! ,

This is meant to be a teaser – a little overview of where we will be going.

Real GDP Growth: 1960-2012Q3

6

8

Average:

How do the components compare?

4

3.10%

2

0

2012 Q1 Q3: 2 0% 1 3% 3 1%

4

-2 - . , . , .

Below 0.0% for 2 consecutive quarters is a recession. -

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts

CPI Inflation Rate: 1960-2012 Average: 4%

14

16 Annual % change

Double-digit Acceptable level (about

10

12

hyperinflation2.5%)

6

8 Green line: BC troughs

2

4

-2

0

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

CPI for urban consumers, U.S. city average, all items,NSA. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rate 1960-2012, annual, % of civilian workforce

12

8

10

Mean: 6.09%

6

4

Red represents the trough of business

2

cycles. In recent cycles, unemployment lags the cycle by a few months.

0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

$ /Yen (¥) Exchange Rate Monthly data , Jan 2000 – February 2013

130

140 Shown here is the ¥ price of the $, interpreted as “one $ costs 93 ¥” and written as $/¥. This convention is inverted from the manner in which the ₤ and € are conventionally quoted.

110

120 Mar 26, 2013 $/¥ = 94.500

100

implies ¥/$ = $0.010582

This was 238 in 1985

80

90 .

60

70 This value falling (when $ is in the numerator) is regarded as a “depreciating” or “weaker” dollar. Imported goods from Japan cost more and our exports to Japan cost less.

Source: Federal Reserve System G5/H10 data Foreign Exchange Rates

U.S. Government Budget Surpluses and Deficits

200

400 1969 - 2012

$ Billions

-200

0 Surpluses

-600

-400 Deficits

-1,000

-800

-1,400

-1,200

Ford Bush IIClintonBush IReaganCarterNixon Obama

-1,600 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

Source: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2014, Historical Tables, Table 1.1

Excess Reserves of Depository Institutions ( thl billi $ 1959 M h 2013)

1,600

1,800 mon y, ons , – arc

1,200

1,400 QE1, QE2 and QE3 have "monetized” the budget deficit.

800

1,000

400

600 The celebrated Greenspan salvation ...

i f

200 The old scale: 20

sav ng us rom catastrophe after the 2000 crash and 9/11.

0 1959-01 1969-01 1979-01 1989-01 1999-01 2009-01

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Bank, H.3 Statistical Release

Topical Issues early 2014

• What will be the effect of tapering QE3? What ill interest rates do in 2014?• w

• Will deflation actually become a problem? Will th i t ?• e recess on re urn

• Is the budget deficit going to shrink (enough)? • What is the long-run cost of current govt. policy? • What is the future of Social Security and Medicare? • What are the global dimensions of this – is Europe or

emerging nations going to fall and drag us down? • Will there be an exchange-rate war this year?

no comments were posted
This is only a preview
3 shown on 13 pages
Download the document