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Global Volcanic Hazard And Risk full book low res, Otro de Vulcanología. Universidad Nacional Andrés Bello

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Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk

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Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk

Approximately 800 million people live within 100 km of active volcanoes worldwide, and with ever-growing populations, the likelihood of volcanic emergencies is increasing. Volcanic eruptions can cause extreme societal and economic disruption through loss of life and livelihoods, and damage to critical infrastructure. Originally prepared for the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, this is

the first comprehensive assessment of global volcanic hazard and risk, drawing on a wide range of international expertise. It presents the state of the art in our understanding of global volcanic activity, as well as a thorough introduction to volcanology, accessible to a broad audience. It also looks at our assessment and management capabilities, and considers the preparedness of the global scientific community and government agencies to manage volcanic hazards and risk. Volcanic hazard profiles and local case studies are provided online for all countries with

active volcanoes, with invaluable information on volcanic hazard and risk at the local, national and global scale. Particular attention is paid to volcanic ash, the most frequent and wide-ranging volcanic hazard. The first global ash fall hazard map is presented along with a discussion of the characteristics and impacts associated with volcanic ash fall. Of interest to all those concerned with reducing the impact of natural hazards and disas-

ter risk reduction, including government officials, the private sector, students, researchers and professional scientists, this book is a key resource for the disaster risk reduction community and for those interested in volcanology and natural hazards. A non-technical summary report is also included for policy makers and general interest readers. This title is also available as Open Access via www.cambridge.org/volcano.

Dr Susan Loughlin is the Head of Volcanology at the British Geological Survey (BGS) and joint leader of the Global Volcano Model (GVM). Her research interests include volcanic processes, hazards and risk, communication, social and environmental impacts of eruptions and the interaction of scientists and decision makers. Dr. Loughlin spent several years at Montserrat Volcano Observatory and was Director for two years. She has provided advice to governments and communities during volcanic unrest and eruptions (e.g. Montserrat and Iceland/UK) and provided scientific evidence for longer-term planning.

Professor Steve Sparks is a volcanologist at the University of Bristol and joint leader of the Global Volcano Model (GVM). With expertise in many aspects of volcanology, he is the most highly cited scientist in this field. His interests include volcanic hazards and risk, the physics of volcanic eruptions and fluid dynamics of hazardous flows. Professor Sparks

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has provided advice to governments during ongoing and developing volcanic emergencies in Montserrat and Iceland.

Dr Sarah Brown is a researcher in volcanology at the University of Bristol. Her interests lie in physical volcanology with an emphasis on the assessment of hazard and risk. Dr. Brown works on combining and developing volcanological datasets including the Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruptions database (LaMEVE) to investigate the global eruption record with an aim towards developing a better understanding of volcanic risk.

Dr Susanna Jenkins is a volcanologist at the University of Bristol. Her research focuses on the assessment of hazards and risks associated with explosive volcanism. Dr Jenkins has worked with research, government and civil protection agencies, particularly in south-east Asia and the Lesser Antilles, in quantifying the risk from future eruptions and assessing the impact of recent damaging eruptions.

Dr Charlotte Vye-Brown is a volcanologist at the British Geological Survey (BGS). She applies a multi-disciplinary approach of field studies, geochemistry and remote sensing to her research. Her interests include volcanic geology, formation of continental flood basalts, lava flow emplacement, rift volcanism and communication of science to support planning and response to volcanic activity.

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Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk

Edited by

SUSAN C. LOUGHLIN British Geological Survey, Edinburgh, UK

STEVE SPARKS University of Bristol, UK

SARAH K. BROWN University of Bristol, UK

SUSANNA F. JENKINS University of Bristol, UK

CHARLOTTE VYE-BROWN British Geological Survey, Edinburgh, UK

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University Printing House, Cambridge CB2 8BS, United Kingdom

Cambridge University Press is part of the University of Cambridge.

It furthers the University’s mission by disseminating knowledge in the pursuit of education, learning and research at the highest international levels of excellence.

www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9781107111752

© Susan C. Loughlin, Steve Sparks, Sarah K. Brown, Susanna F. Jenkins and Charlotte Vye-Brown 2015

This work is in copyright. It is subject to statutory exceptions and to the provisions of relevant licensing agreements; with the exception of the Creative Commons version

the link for which is provided below, no reproduction of any part of this work may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press.

An online version of this work is published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316276273 under a Creative Commons Open Access license CC-BY-NC-ND 3.0 which permits re-use, distribution and reproduction in any medium for non-commercial purposes providing appropriate credit to the original

work is given. You may not distribute derivative works without permission. To view a copy of this license, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0.

All versions of this work may contain content reproduced under license from third parties. Permission to reproduce this third-party content must be obtained from these third-parties directly.

When citing this work, please include a reference to the DOI 10.1017/CBO9781316276273.

First published 2015

A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library

Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication data Global volcanic hazards and risk / edited by Susan C. Loughlin, British Geological Survey, Edinburgh, UK,

Steve Sparks, University of Bristol, UK, Sarah K. Brown, University of Bristol, UK, Susanna F. Jenkins, University of Bristol, UK.

pages cm Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN 978-1-107-11175-2 (Hardback : alk. paper) 1. Volcanic hazard analysis. 2. Volcanoes. I. Loughlin, Susan C., editor. II. Sparks, R. S. J. (Robert

Stephen John), 1949– editor. III. Brown, Sarah K., editor. IV. Jenkins, Susanna F., editor. QE527.6.G56 2015

363.34′95–dc23 2015011193 ISBN 978-1-107-11175-2 Hardback

Additional resources for this publication at www.cambridge.org/volcano

Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication,

and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.

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v

Contents

List of contributors viii Foreword x Preface xii Acknowledgements xiv

1 An introduction to global volcanic hazard and risk 1 S.C. Loughlin, C. Vye-Brown, R.S.J. Sparks, S.K. Brown, J. Barclay, E. Calder,

E. Cottrell, G. Jolly, J-C. Komorowski, C. Mandeville, C. Newhall, J. Palma, S. Potter and G. Valentine

Appendix: Summaries of Chapters 4-26 and Supplementary Case Studies 1-3 41

2 Global volcanic hazard and risk 81 S.K. Brown, S.C. Loughlin, R.S.J. Sparks, C. Vye-Brown, J. Barclay, E. Calder,

E. Cottrell, G. Jolly, J-C. Komorowski, C. Mandeville, C. Newhall, J. Palma, S. Potter and G. Valentine

3 Volcanic ash fall hazard and risk 173 S.F. Jenkins, T.M. Wilson, C. Magill, V. Miller, C. Stewart, R. Blong,

W. Marzocchi, M. Boulton, C. Bonadonna and A. Costa

Appendix A: Global average recurrence intervals Online

4 Populations around Holocene volcanoes and development of a Population Exposure Index

223

S.K. Brown, M.R. Auker and R.S.J. Sparks

5 An integrated approach to Determining Volcanic Risk in Auckland, New Zealand: the multi-disciplinary DEVORA project

233

N.I. Deligne, J.M. Lindsay and E. Smid

6 Tephra fall hazard for the Neapolitan area 239 W. Marzocchi, J. Selva, A. Costa, L. Sandri, R. Tonini and G. Macedonio

7 Eruptions and lahars of Mount Pinatubo, 1991-2000 249 C.G. Newhall and R. Solidum

8 Improving crisis decision-making at times of uncertain volcanic unrest (Guadeloupe, 1976)

255

J-C. Komorowski, T. Hincks, R.S.J. Sparks, W. Aspinall And CASAVA ANR Project Consortium

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9 Forecasting the November 2010 eruption of Merapi, Indonesia 263 J. Pallister and Surono

10 The importance of communication in hazard zone areas: case study during and after 2010 Merapi eruption, Indonesia

267

S. Andreastuti, J. Subandriyo, S. Sumarti and D. Sayudi

11 Nyiragongo (Democratic Republic of Congo), January 2002: a major eruption in the midst of a complex humanitarian emergency

273

J-C. Komorowski and K. Karume

12 Volcanic ash fall impacts 281 T.M. Wilson, S.F. Jenkins and C. Stewart

13 Health impacts of volcanic eruptions 289 C.J. Horwell, P.J. Baxter and R. Kamanyire

14 Volcanoes and the aviation industry 295 P.W. Webley

15 The role of volcano observatories in risk reduction 299 G. Jolly

16 Developing effective communication tools for volcanic hazards in New Zealand, using social science

305

G. Leonard and S. Potter

17 Volcano monitoring from space 311 M. Poland

18 Volcanic unrest and short-term forecasting capacity 317 J. Gottsmann

19 Global monitoring capacity: development of the Global Volcano Research and Monitoring Institutions Database and analysis of monitoring in Latin America

323

N. Ortiz Guerrero, S.K. Brown, H. Delgado Granados and C. Lombana Criollo

20 Volcanic hazard maps 335 E. Calder, K. Wagner And S.E. Ogburn

21 Risk assessment case history: the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat 343 W. Aspinall And G. Wadge

22 Development of a new global Volcanic Hazard Index (VHI) 349 M.R. Auker, R.S.J. Sparks, S.F. Jenkins, W. Aspinall, S.K. Brown, N.I. Deligne,

G. Jolly, S.C. Loughlin, W. Marzocchi, C.G. Newhall and J.L. Palma

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23 Global distribution of volcanic threat 359 S.K. Brown, R.S.J. Sparks and S.F. Jenkins

24 Scientific communication of uncertainty during volcanic emergencies 371 J. Marti

25 Volcano Disaster Assistance Program: Preventing volcanic crises from becoming disasters and advancing science diplomacy

379

J. Pallister

26 Communities coping with uncertainty and reducing their risk: the collaborative monitoring and management of volcanic activity with the vigías of Tungurahua

385

J. Stone, J.Barclay, P. Ramon, P. Mothes and STREVA Index 389 Appendix B: Country and regional profiles of volcanic hazard and risk

S.K. Brown, R.S.J. Sparks, K.Mee, C. Vye-Brown, E.Ilyinskaya, S.F. Jenkins, S.C. Loughlin, et al.*

Online†

* The contributors to this report are listed separately within Appendix B. † See www.cambridge.org/volcano for Appendix B which comprises a short discussion of the global distribution of volcanic hazard and risk and individual profiles of volcanism for all countries and regions with volcanic activity within the last 10,000 years.

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Contributors

Andreastuti, S. Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation, Indonesia Aspinall, W. University of Bristol, UK Auker, M.R. University of Bristol, UK Baptie, B. British Geological Survey, UK Barclay, J. University of East Anglia, UK Baxter, P.J. University of Cambridge, UK Biggs, J. University of Bristol, UK Blong, R. Aon Benfield, Australia Bonadonna, C. University of Geneva, Switzerland Boulton, M. University of Bristol, UK Brown, S.K. University of Bristol, UK Calder, E. University of Edinburgh, UK Costa, A. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy Cottrell, E. Smithsonian Institution, USA Crosweller, H.S. University of Bristol, UK Daud, S. Civil Contingencies Secretariat, Cabinet Office, UK Delgado-Granados, H. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México Deligne, N.I. GNS Science, New Zealand Felton, C. Civil Contingencies Secretariat, Cabinet Office, UK Gilbert, J.S. Lancaster University, UK Gottsmann, J. University of Bristol, UK Hincks, T. University of Bristol, UK Hobbs, L.K. Lancaster University, UK Horwell, C.J. Durham University, UK Ilyinskaya, E. British Geological Survey, UK Jenkins, S.F. University of Bristol, UK Jolly, G. GNS Science, New Zealand Kamanyire, R. Public Health England, UK Karume, K. Goma Volcano Observatory, Democratic Republic of Congo Kilburn, C. University College London, UK Komorowski, J-C. Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, France Lane, S.J. Lancaster University, UK Leonard, G. GNS Science, New Zealand Lindsay, J.M. University of Auckland, New Zealand Lombana-Criollo, C. Universidad Mariana, Colombia Loughlin, S.C. British Geological Survey, UK Macedonio, G. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy Magill, C.R. Macquarie University, Australia Mandeville, C. US Geological Survey, USA Marti, J. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Spain Marzocchi, W. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy Mee, K. British Geological Survey, UK Miller, V. Geoscience Australia, Australia Mothes, P. Instituto Geofísico Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Ecuador Newhall, C. Earth Observatory of Singapore, Singapore

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Oddsson, B. Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management, Iceland Ogburn, S.E. University at Buffalo, USA Ortiz Guerrero, N. Universidad Mariana, Colombia; Universidad Nacional Autónoma de

México, México Pallister, J. Volcano Disaster Assistance Program, US Geological Survey, USA Palma, J. University of Concepcion, Chile Poland, M. Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, US Geological Survey, USA Potter, S. GNS Science, New Zealand Pritchard, M. Cornell University, USA Ramon, P. Instituo Geofísico EPN, Ecuador Sandri, L. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy Sayudi, D. Geological Agency of Indonesia, Indonesia Selva, J. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy Smid, E. University of Auckland, New Zealand Solidum, R.U. Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, Philippines Sparks, R.S.J. University of Bristol, UK Stewart, C. Massey University, New Zealand Stone, J. University of East Anglia, UK Subandriyo, J. Geological Agency of Indonesia, Indonesia Sumarti, S. Geological Agency of Indonesia, Indonesia Surono Geological Agency of Indonesia, Indonesia Tonini, R. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy Valentine, G. University at Buffalo, USA Vye-Brown, C. British Geological Survey, UK Wadge, G. University of Reading, UK Wagner, K. University at Buffalo, USA Webley, P. University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA Wilson, T.M. University of Canterbury, New Zealand

The editors would also like to thank Nick Barnard and Sue Mahony for their help in preparing the index for this volume.

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Foreword

This contribution from the Global Volcano Model Network (GVM) and the International Association for Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior (IAVCEI), on the status of global volcanic hazards and risk assessment capability for the United Nations Office for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) Global Assessment Report for Risk Reduction 2015 (GAR15 Report) is an extremely timely and important reminder that there is still a huge amount of work to be done. GVM is a collaborative international initiative, involving multiple research and government institutions, in collaboration with IAVCEI, and has as its mandate “to create a sustainable, accessible information platform on volcanic hazard and risk”. This task would be difficult for any learned association or institution by itself, and has required funding and logistic support from multiple international sources.

Over 130 scientists from 86 institutions in nearly 50 countries worldwide have contributed to this work, representing a remarkable collaborative effort of the

volcanological community. The World Organisation of Volcano Observatories (WOVO) is a key Commission of IAVCEI and has contributed to profiles of volcanism for the 95 countries or territories with active volcanoes.

This book provides a state-of-the-art assessment of the preparedness of the global scientific community and government agencies to manage volcano hazards and risks globally. It demonstrates alarmingly that adequate information to make informed hazard and threat assessment exists for only 328 (about 20%) of the Earth’s 1,551 “active” volcanoes that are known to have erupted during the Holocene (<10,000 years). The situation is even more concerning when considering that there are many dormant volcanoes that have not erupted in the Holocene, but could still erupt.

This situation clearly indicates that much more needs to be done by governments worldwide to improve both the monitoring capabilities for all the known active volcanoes, and as importantly, undertake detailed investigations of the geological histories of all known active and dormant volcanoes.

Monitoring provides only a modern snapshot of the level of activity or unrest of volcanoes, which is crucial to assessing if volcanic eruption is imminent. Seismic and geodetic networks are core to such monitoring, as is gas sampling and analysis. Development of modern airborne and ground-based remote sensing technologies and data sets are now also enhancing our abilities to assess unrest at volcanoes.

However, even if an eruption is imminent, without a database on the eruption history, the frequency and magnitude of eruptions, and the previous eruption styles of a volcano, trying to predict the most likely hazards and their magnitude, becomes poorly constrained guesswork. Understanding the geological history of volcanoes is one of the most important tools in modern

Ray Cas President, International Association for Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior (IAVCEI) October 2014.

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volcano hazard and risk assessment. Understanding the previous behaviour of a volcano requires a programme of careful geological mapping, providing data on the dispersal patterns and stratigraphic occurrence of the spectrum of deposit types and their magnitude. Together with knowledge of the geochemistry and geochemical evolution, and a well-constrained geochronological framework of events, factually-based hazard and risk assessment is only then possible.

Sadly it seems that such basic and essential geological knowledge is lacking for almost 80% of the world’s active volcanoes! Is this a function of inadequate funding, or an assumption that geological and stratigraphic fieldwork is old fashioned and no longer relevant, or both? This requires urgent attention.

Undertaking geological mapping of volcanoes need no longer be tedious and require covering every square metre of a volcano. Modern remote sensing databases such as Aster, radiometrics, aeromagnetics, LiDAR, etc, offer fast, smart ways of producing first-order maps of volcanoes, that can then be ground-truthed in strategic areas to confirm apparent stratigraphic superposition relationships, evaluate deposit types, collect samples for geochemistry and geochronology, and efficiently produce an assessment of the geological history, eruption styles, deposit types, eruption magnitudes, hazards and risks.

Having compiled a geological database through collaboration with the Smithsonian Institute’s Global Volcano Program (GVP), GVM has introduced a Volcano Hazard Index (VHI) for each volcano for which there is an adequate geological record. This important new innovation begins to provide an overview of the range of possible hazards for a particular volcano, the likelihood of specific hazards occurring, and their magnitude, based on the previous history of the volcano. I am pleased to note that just this year to emphasise the importance of understanding the geology of volcanoes, Secretary-General of IAVCEI, Joan Marti, organised an international workshop on the theme of “The geology of volcanoes” on the volcanic island of Madeira. A proposal to form a new IAVCEI Research Commission on this theme is now being prepared.

In addition, measures of the populace exposed to volcanic hazards are introduced to better understand the volcanic threat. A significant statistic of the report is that 800 million people live within 100 km of active volcanoes, 226 live million within 30 km and 29 million live within 10 km. This again highlights the importance of developing a better understanding of volcanic hazards and their impact.

The report also briefly addresses the potential economic impacts of volcanic events, which as global populations increase are just likely to rise. The 2010 Eyja jallajökull eruption in Iceland was a startling wake-up call on this.

In summary, the GAR15 Report on Global Volcanic Hazards and Risks is a stark reminder that there is still a huge amount of work to be done in understanding the hazards and risks of the world’s volcanoes. Major investments are required not only in acquiring and deploying more monitoring equipment on more volcanoes, but also for undertaking ongoing geological mapping and fieldwork to improve understanding of hazards and risks on all active volcanoes.

On behalf of IAVCEI, I congratulate GVM and everyone who has contributed to the GAR15 Report, most of whom are members of IAVCEI. The GAR15 Report will provide UNISDR, governments, IAVCEI and its members with much to consider.

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Preface

Volcanic hazards and risk have not been considered in previous global assessments by UNISDR as part of the biennial reports on disaster risk reduction. This book developed as a consequence of Global Volcano Model (GVM) being invited to make such an assessment by UNISDR for its 2015 report. GVM worked in close collaboration with the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior (IAVCEI) to contribute four background papers for the 2015 Global Assessment Report (GAR15) of UNISDR. These background papers contain a lot more information than could be included in GAR15 and can be construed as the evidence on which UN ISDR have been able to include volcanic risk into their report. Although the background papers were placed on the UNISDR website they would have become part of the ephemeral grey literature that increasingly pervades scientific publication. Thus the decision was made to publish the reports together as an open access e-book with the support of UNISDR.

The book represents the efforts of the global volcanological community to provide a synthesis of what we understand about volcanoes, volcanic hazards and the attendant risks. The book owes its existence to the efforts of many scientists from many countries. There are over 130 authors from 47 countries. Members of the World Organisation of Volcano Observatories (WOVO) have been immensely helpful and collaborative in providing information for the country profiles and making sure that the facts are correct. Outside of those who have directly contributed are many thousands of scientists throughout the world who have provided the data and scientific analysis within the peer-reviewed literature to contribute to the collective knowledge, which we have tried to synthesise. There will be shortcomings and omissions in any endeavour of this kind. GVM and IAVCEI have the ambition to carry out future global analyses to reflect advances in knowledge and to address shortcomings and omissions in this inaugural attempt at a global synthesis.

The book is organised and presented in a rather unconventional way, reflecting that it represents four different background papers for the GAR15. Each background paper has a different and complementary purpose and may also attract different readers. We decided not to change the reports in any significant way apart from some minor re-formatting and cross- referencing. The reader will likely notice some repetition between the main chapters, which reflects the logic of the reporting to UNISDR. Chapter 1 is a summary of our findings and key issues designed for a non-technical readership. We hope that a wide range of people within the disaster risk reduction community will find this chapter accessible. Our findings are evidence- based and draw from the scientific literature as well as some new analysis. We also utilise case studies to illustrate the issues or provide a more detailed analysis of certain key topics. Thus Chapter 2 is essentially a much longer version of Chapter 1 containing much more technical detail and the evidence base on which Chapter 1 draws, including references to the peer- reviewed scientific literature and authoritative sources. This chapter is written more for a technical audience or for those who want to understand the science and evidence in more detail. We do not though assume any expertise in geoscience disciplines so the chapter is reaching out to a wide technical audience within the disaster risk reduction (DRR) and natural hazards communities. Chapter 3 is a more specialist study of volcanic ash fall hazard based on the work of the GVM ash hazard task force. Ash hazard has risen to prominence in recent years due to the impacts on aviation and is the volcanic hazard where probabilistic methods have advanced the most. There are 23 case studies, each of which constitutes a short chapter. Brief synopses of these short case studies are included in Chapter 1 for the non-technical readership, with three

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supplementary short case studies. These case studies were chosen to illustrate the wide range of scientific and risk management issues related to volcanoes. Finally there is supplementary material, which consists of profiles of each of the 95 countries and territories with active volcanoes. Most of these profiles were written in collaboration with members of the World Organisation of Volcano Observatories (WOVO). The intention is to update these profiles as new information becomes available and it is anticipated that these updates will be a collaboration between GVM and WOVO members.

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Acknowledgements

We are indebted to colleagues around the world in the volcanological community who have generated the contemporary understanding of volcanoes on which this book draws. We are very grateful to colleagues and reviewers, including Dave Ramsey, Victoria Avery and Christina Neal of the US Geological Survey, for their valued input and suggestions, which greatly improved this book. Support was provided by the European Research Council and the Natural Environment Research Council of the UK (NERC) through their International Opportunities Fund. We are also thankful for the support provided by the UNISDR for the publication of this work through Cambridge University Press.

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Loughlin, S.C., Vye-Brown, C., Sparks, R.S.J., Brown, S.K., Barclay, J., Calder, E., Cottrell, E., Jolly, G., Komorowski, J-C., Mandeville, C., Newhall, C., Palma, J., Potter, S., Valentine, G. (2015) An introduction to global volcanic hazard and risk. In: S.C. Loughlin, R.S.J. Sparks, S.K. Brown, S.F. Jenkins & C. Vye-Brown (eds) Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Chapter 1

An introduction to global volcanic hazard and risk

S.C. Loughlin, C. Vye-Brown, R.S.J. Sparks, S.K. Brown, J. Barclay, E. Calder, E. Cottrell, G. Jolly, J-C. Komorowski, C. Mandeville, C. Newhall, J. Palma, S. Potter and G. Valentine

with contributions from B. Baptie, J. Biggs, H.S. Crosweller, E. Ilyinskaya, C. Kilburn, K. Mee, M. Pritchard and authors of Chapters 3-26

1.1 Introduction

The aim of this book is provide a broad synopsis of global volcanic hazards and risk with a focus on the impact of eruptions on society and to provide the first comprehensive global assessment of volcanic hazard and risk. The work was originally undertaken by the Global Volcano Model (GVM, http://globalvolcanomodel.org/) in collaboration with the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior (IAVCEI, http://www.iavcei.org/) as a contribution to the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction, 2015 (GAR15), produced by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UN ISDR). The Volcanoes of the World database collated by the Smithsonian Institution (Siebert et al., 2010, Smithsonian, 2014) is regarded as the authoritative source of information on Earth’s volcanism and is the main resource for this study (data cited in this report are from version VOTW4.22).

Chapter 1 provides a short summary of global volcanic hazards and risks intended for a non- technical readership. Chapter 2 provides a more detailed analysis of global volcanic hazards and risks. Chapter 3 focuses on volcanic ash fall hazard and risk. Chapters 4 to 26 provide additional detail and case studies about subjects covered in Chapters 1 and 2. These case studies, along with published literature, provide the evidence base for this work. Summaries of Chapters 4 to 26, and additional case studies 1-3 are provided as an appendix to this chapter.

A complementary report comprising country profiles of volcanism, is provided online in support of this book (Appendix B). The country-by-country analysis of volcanoes, hazards, vulnerabilities and technical coping capacity is provided to give a snapshot of the current state of volcanic risk across the world.

Contents

1.1 Introduction

1.2 Background

1.3 Volcanoes in space and time

1.4 Volcanic hazards and impacts

1.5 Monitoring and forecasting

1.6 Assessing volcanic hazards and risk

1.7 Volcanic emergencies and DRR

1.8 The way forward

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Loughlin et al. 2 1.2 Background

Volcanic eruptions can cause loss of life and livelihoods in exposed communities, damage critical infrastructure, displace populations, disrupt business and add stress to already fragile environments (Blong, 1984). Currently, an estimated 800 million people live within 100 km of a volcano that has the potential to erupt [Chapter 4]. These volcanoes are located in 86 countries and additional overseas territories worldwide [see Appendix B]*.

The total documented loss of life from volcanic eruptions has been modest compared to other natural hazards (~280,000 since 1600 AD, Auker et al., 2013). However, a small number of eruptions are responsible for a large proportion of these fatalities, demonstrating the potential for devastating mass casualties in a single event (Figure 1.1). Importantly, these eruptions are not all large and the impacts are not all proximal to the volcano. For example, the moderate- sized eruption of Nevado del Ruiz, (Colombia) in 1985 triggered lahars (volcanic mudflows), which resulted in the deaths of more than 23,000 people tens of kilometres from the volcano (Voight, 1990).

Figure 1.1 Cumulative number of fatalities directly resulting from volcanic eruptions (Auker et al., 2013). Shown using all 533 fatal volcanic incidents (red line), with the five largest disasters removed (blue line), and with the largest ten disasters removed (purple line). The largest five disasters are: Tambora, Indonesia in 1815 (60,000 fatalities); Krakatau, Indonesia in 1883 (36,417 fatalities); Pelée, Martinique in 1902 (28,800 fatalities); Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia in 1985 (23,187 fatalities); Unzen, Japan in 1792 (14,524 fatalities). The sixth to tenth largest disasters are: Grímsvötn, Iceland, in 1783 (9,350 fatalities); Santa María, Guatemala, in 1902 (8,700 fatalities); Kilauea, Hawaii, in 1790 (5,405 fatalities); Kelut, Indonesia, in 1919 (5,099 fatalities); Tungurahua, Ecuador, in 1640 (5,000 fatalities). Counts are calculated in five-year cohorts. This figure is reproduced as Figure 2.13 in Chapter 2.

* Appendix B (www.cambridge.org/volcano) comprises country profiles of volcanism.

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Background 3 Despite exponential population growth, the number of fatalities per eruption has declined markedly in the last few decades, suggesting that risk reduction measures are working to some extent (Auker et al., 2013). There has been an increase in volcano monitoring and resultant improvements in hazard assessments, early warnings, short-term forecasts, hazard awareness, communication and preparedness around specific volcanoes (Leonard et al., 2008, Solana et al., 2008, Lindsay, 2010, Larson et al., 2010, Roberts et al., 2011, Marzocchi & Bebbington, 2012, Wadge et al., 2014). Many volcano observatories are active in vulnerable communities, helping to build awareness of volcanic hazards and risk. They now have a key role in building resilience and reducing risk. It is conservatively estimated that at least 50,000 lives have been saved over the last century (Auker et al., 2013) probably as a consequence of these developments. Unfortunately, many volcanoes worldwide are either unmonitored or not sufficiently monitored to result in effective risk mitigation and therefore when they re-awaken the losses may be considerable. The inequalities in monitoring capacity worldwide and the lack of basic geological information at some volcanoes is demonstrated in the country and regional profiles of volcanism in Appendix B.

Volcanic eruptions are almost always preceded by ‘unrest’ (Potter et al., 2012, Barberi et al., 1984) including volcanic earthquakes and ground movements which can in themselves be hazardous. Volcanic unrest can allow scientists at volcano observatories to provide early warnings if there is a good monitoring network (Phillipson et al., 2013) [Chapters 15 and 18]. Increasingly, effective monitoring from both the ground and space is enabling volcano observatories to provide good short-term forecasts of the onset of eruptions or changing hazards situations (Sparks, 2003, Segall, 2013; Chapter 17). Such forecasts and early warnings can support timely decision-making and risk mitigation measures by civil authorities (Newhall & Punongbayan, 1996, Lockwood & Hazlett, 2013). For example, nearly 400,000 people were evacuated during the November 2010 eruption of Merapi, Indonesia and it is estimated that 10,000 to 20,000 thousand lives were saved as a result (Surono et al., 2012). Nevertheless, there were 386 fatalities reflecting in part the complex contexts in which individuals receive information and make decisions.

Long-lived or frequent eruptions pose particular challenges for communities and there are good examples of social adaptation in response to these difficult situations (e.g. Sword-Daniels, 2011). For example, the long-lived but intermittent eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano in Montserrat (Lesser Antilles), comprised five phases of lava extrusion between 1995 and 2010 (Wadge et al., 2014). The eruption caused severe social and economic disruption, with 19 fatalities on 25 June 1997(Loughlin et al., 2002), and the subsequent loss of the capital, port and airport. The progressive off-island evacuation of more than 7,500 people (two thirds of the pre-eruption population), left a population of less than 3,000 in 1998 (Clay et al., 1999). A strong cultural identity has helped islanders to cope and a state-of-the-art volcano observatory has become established that continues to support development of new methodologies in hazard and risk assessment [Chapter 21]. Tungurahua in Ecuador has erupted since 1999 and innovative incentives to encourage rapid evacuation have been developed. A system of community ‘vigías’ (watchers) support scientists, civil defence and their communities by observing the volcano and organising evacuations of their communities if necessary (Stone et al., 2014). Some of the farmers at highest risk have been allocated additional fields away from the volcano, providing options for retreat in times of threat and uncertainty [Chapter 26]. The preservation or

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Loughlin et al. 4 rebuilding of livelihoods, critical infrastructure systems and social capital is essential to successful adaptation under these conditions.

The economic impact of volcanic eruptions has recently become more apparent at local, regional and global scales. The 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland caused serious disruption to air traffic in the north Atlantic and Europe as fine volcanic ash in the atmosphere drifted thousands of kilometres from the volcano (Þorkelsson, 2012). The resulting global economic losses from this modest-sized eruption accumulated to about US$ 5 billion (Ragona et al., 2011) as global businesses and supply chains were affected. In the eruption of Merapi, Indonesia in 2010, losses were estimated at US$ 300 million (BNPB., 2011)[Chapters 9 and 10]. Economic losses due to damage of exposed critical infrastructure are unavoidable, but the goal is to minimise them as far as possible through effective long-term planning.

There is often a lack of awareness of volcanic risk both in the proximity of a volcano and further afield, and indeed the risk may not have been assessed at all (Lockwood & Hazlett, 2013). In part this is due to the long duration between eruptions at some volcanoes. Understanding the risks posed by a volcano first requires a thorough understanding of the eruptive history of that volcano, ideally through both geological and historical research (Sparks & Aspinall, 2004). There is still significant uncertainty about the eruption history at many of the world’s volcanoes so understanding of potential future hazards, and their likely frequency and magnitude is limited. For example, before the 2008 eruption of Chaitén volcano, Chile, the few studies available suggested that the last major eruption occurred thousands of years ago and little was known of any historical eruptions. The threat appeared low and so the closest monitoring station operated by the national monitoring institution was more than 200 km away. It was only after the 2008 eruption, which resulted in the rapid evacuation of Chaitén town, that new dating was undertaken showing that in fact Chaitén volcano has been more active than previously thought. Had the research been done first, an eruption may have been anticipated (e.g. Lara et al. 2013).

Although volcanoes do pose risks during unrest and eruption, they also provide benefits to society during their much longer periods of repose (Lane et al., 2003, Kelman & Mather, 2008, Bird et al., 2010, Witter, 2012). Volcanic environments are typically appealing: soils are fertile; elevated topography provides good living and agricultural conditions, especially in the equatorial regions (Small & Naumann, 2001); water resources are commonly plentiful; volcano tourism can provide livelihoods; some volcanoes have geothermal systems that can be exploited (Witter, 2012) and some have religious or spiritual significance. These benefits mean that providing equivalent alternatives if evacuation/resettlement is advised can be challenging.

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Volcanoes in space and time 5

1.3 Volcanoes in space and time

Most active volcanoes (Figure 1.2) occur at the boundaries between tectonic plates (Schmincke, 2004, Cottrell, 2014) where the Earth’s crust is either created in rift zones (where tectonic plates move slowly apart) or destroyed in subduction zones (where plates collide and one is pushed below the other). Most volcanoes along rift zones are deep in the oceans along mid- ocean ridges. Some rift zones extend from the oceans and seas onto land, for example in Iceland and the East African Rift valley. The Pacific ‘ring of fire’ comprises chains of island volcanoes (e.g. Aleutians, Indonesia, Philippines) and continental volcanoes (e.g. in the Andes) that have formed above subduction zones. These volcanoes have the potential to be highly explosive. Other notable subduction zone volcanic chains include the Lesser Antilles in the Caribbean and the South Sandwich Islands in the Southern Atlantic. Some active volcanoes occur in the interiors of tectonic plates above mantle ‘hot spots’, the Hawaiian volcanic chain and Yellowstone in the USA being the best-known examples.

Figure 1.2 Potentially hazardous volcanoes are shown with their maximum recorded Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) – a measure of explosive eruption size. Small eruptions (VEI 0-2) and eruptions of unknown size are shown in purple and dark blue. The warming of the colours and the increase in size of the triangles represents increasing VEI. Volcanoes mostly occur along plate boundaries with a few exceptions. There may be thousands of additional active submarine volcanoes along mid-ocean ridges but they don’t threaten populated areas. Records are for the Holocene (the last ~10,000 years).

There are many different types of volcanoes in each of these settings, some are typical steep- sided cones, some are broad shields, some of the larger caldera volcanoes are almost indistinguishable on the ground and can only be seen clearly from space (Siebert et al., 2010, Cottrell, 2014). Each volcano may demonstrate diverse eruption styles from large explosions that send buoyant plumes of ash high into the atmosphere to flowing lavas. Each eruption

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Loughlin et al. 6 evolves over time, resulting in a variety of different hazards and a wide range of consequent impacts. This variety in behaviours arises because of the complex and non-linear processes involved in the generation and supply of magma to the Earth’s surface (Cashman et al., 2013). The subsequent interaction of erupting magma with surface environments such as water or ice may further alter the characteristics of eruptions and thus their impacts. This great diversity of behaviours and consequent hazards means that each volcano needs to be assessed and monitored individually by a volcano observatory.

Volcanic eruptions are usually measured by magnitude and/or intensity (Pyle, 2015) but neither is easy to measure, particularly for explosive eruptions. The magnitude of an eruption is defined as total erupted mass (kg), while intensity is defined as the rate of eruption, or mass flux (kg per second). In order to compare the size of different types of eruptions, a magnitude scale is commonly used. A widely used alternative to characterise and compare the size of purely explosive eruptions is the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) which comprises a scale from 0 to 8 (Figure 1.3). The VEI is usually based on the volume of material erupted during an explosive eruption (which can be estimated based on fieldwork after an eruption) and also the height of the erupting column of ash (Newhall & Self, 1982). The height of an ash column generated in an explosive eruption can be measured relatively easily and is related to intensity (Mastin et al., 2009, Bonadonna et al., 2012).

In general, there is an increasing probability of fatalities with increasing eruption magnitude, for example, all recorded VEI 6 and 7 eruptions since 1600 AD have caused fatalities (Auker et al., 2013). Five major disasters dominate the historical dataset on fatalities accounting for 58% of all recorded fatalities since 4350 BC (Figure 1.1). The two largest disasters in terms of fatalities were caused by the largest eruptions (Tambora 1850; Krakatau 1883). Nevertheless, small to moderate eruptions can be devastating, the modest eruptions of Nevado del Ruiz (VEI 3) and Mont Pelée (VEI 4) being good examples (Voight, 1990). A statistical analysis of all volcanic incidents (any volcanic event that has caused human fatalities), excluding the five dominant major disasters, highlights the fact that VEI 2-3 eruptions are most likely to cause a fatal volcanic incident of any scale and VEI 3-4 eruptions are most likely to have the highest numbers of fatalities (Auker et al., 2013).

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Volcanoes in space and time 7

Figure 1.3 VEI is best estimated from volume of explosively erupted material but can also be estimated from column height. The typical eruption column heights and number of confirmed Holocene eruptions with an attributed VEI in VOTW4.22 are shown (Siebert et al., 2010).

In total there are 1,551 volcanoes in the Smithsonian Institution database VOTW4.22, of which 866 are known to have erupted in the last 10,000 years (the Holocene). Since 1500 AD, there are 596 volcanoes that are known to have erupted. Only about 30% of the world’s Holocene volcanoes have any published information about eruptions before 1500 AD, while 38% have no records earlier than 1900 AD. Geological, historical and dating records become less complete further back in time. Statistical studies of the available records (Deligne et al., 2010, Furlan, 2010, Brown et al., 2014) suggest that only about 40% of explosive eruptions are known between 1500 and 1900 AD, while only 15% of large Holocene explosive eruptions are known prior to 1 AD.

The record since 1950 is believed to be almost complete with 2,208 eruptions recorded from 347 volcanoes. The average number of eruptions ongoing per year since 1950 is 63, with a

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Loughlin et al. 8 minimum of 46 and maximum of 85 eruptions recorded per year. On average 34 of these are new eruptions beginning each year.

Going further back in time, the Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruptions (LaMEVE) database (Crosweller et al., 2012) lists 3,130 volcanoes that have been active in the last 2.58 million years (Quaternary period), and some of these may well be dormant rather than extinct. Many of these volcanoes remain unstudied and much more information is needed to understand fully the threat posed by all of the world’s volcanoes. There are also thousands of submarine volcanoes, but the great majority of these (with one or two exceptions) do not constitute a major threat.

Estimating the global frequency and magnitude of volcanic eruptions requires this under- recording to be taken into account (Deligne et al., 2010, Furlan, 2010, Brown et al., 2014). Statistical analysis of global data for explosive eruptions (with under-recording accounted for) shows that as eruption magnitude increases, the frequency of eruptions decreases (Table 1.1).

Table 1.1 Global return periods for explosive eruptions of magnitude M (where M = Log10m -7 and m is the mass erupted in kilograms (Pyle, 2015)). The estimates are based on a statistical analysis of data from VOTW4.22 and the Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruptions database (LaMEVE) version 2 (http://www.bgs.ac.uk/vogripa/)(Crosweller et al., 2012). The analysis method takes account of the decrease of event reporting back in time (Deligne et al., 2010). Note that the data are for M ≥ 4.This table is reproduced as Table 2.1 in Chapter 2.

MagnitudeReturn period (years)Uncertainty

(years) ≥4.0 2.5 0.9 ≥4.5 4.1 1.3 ≥5.0 7.8 2.5 ≥5.5 24 5.0 ≥6.0 72 10 ≥6.5 380 18 ≥7.0 2,925 190 ≥7.5 39,500 2,500 ≥8.0 133,350 16,000

Volcanoes that erupt infrequently may surprise nearby populations if monitoring is not in place, and eruptions may be large. For example, Pinatubo, Philippines, (Newhall & Punongbayan, 1996) was dormant for a few hundred years before the large eruption in 1991 [Chapter 7], so populations, civil protection services and government authorities had no previous experience or even expectation of activity at the volcano. Conversely, some volcanoes are frequently active and local communities have learned to adapt to these modest eruptions (e.g. Sakurajima, Japan; Etna, Italy; Tungurahua, Ecuador [Chapter 26]; Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat (Sword- Daniels, 2011)). Very infrequent, extremely large volcanic eruptions (i.e. VEI 7-8+) have the potential for regional and global consequences and yet we have no experience of such events in recent historical time (Self & Blake, 2008). The super-eruptions that took place at Yellowstone (Magnitude M=8 or more) have a very low probability of occurrence in the context of human society (Table 1.1).

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Volcanic hazards 9

1.4 Volcanic hazards and their impacts

Volcanoes produce multiple primary and secondary hazards (Blong, 1984, Papale, 2014) that must each be recognised and assessed in order to mitigate their impacts. Depending upon volcano type, magma composition, eruption style, scale and intensity at any given time, these hazards will have different characteristics and may occur in different combinations at different times. The major volcanic hazards that create risks for communities include those outlined below:

Ballistics.Ballistics (also referred to as volcanic bombs) are rocks ejected on ballistic trajectories by volcanic explosions. In most cases the range of ballistics is a few hundred metres to about two kilometres from the vent, but they can be blasted to distances of more than 5 km in the most powerful explosions. Fatalities, injuries and structural damage result from direct impacts of ballistics, and those which are very hot on impact can start fires.

Volcanic ash and tephra. Explosive eruptions and pyroclastic density currents (see below) produce large quantities of intensely fragmented rock, referred to as tephra. The very finest fragments from 2 mm down to nanoparticles are known as ‘volcanic ash’ and can be produced in huge volumes. The physical and chemical properties of volcanic ash are highly variable and this has implications for impacts on health, environment and critical infrastructure [Chapters 12 and 13], and also for the detection of ash in the atmosphere using remote sensing. Falling volcanic ash may cause darkness and very hazardous driving conditions, while concurrent rainfall leads to raining mud. Even relatively thin ash fall deposits (≥ 1 mm) may threaten public health (Horwell & Baxter, 2006, Carlsen et al., 2012) damage crops and vegetation, disrupt critical infrastructure systems (Spence et al., 2005, Sword-Daniels, 2011, Wilson et al., 2012, Wilson et al., 2014), transport, primary production and other socio-economic activities over potentially very large areas. Ash fall creates major clean-up demands (Blong, 1984) [Chapter 12], which need to be planned for (e.g. the availability of large volumes of water for hosing, trucks and sites to dump ash). The accumulation of ash on roofs can be hazardous especially if it is wet; for example, the collapse of roofs during the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption killed about 300 people [Chapter 7]. Unfortunately, volcanic ash fall can also be persistent during long-lived eruptions, giving crops, the environment and impacted communities limited chance to recover (Cronin & Sharp, 2002). Remobilisation of volcanic ash by wind can continue for many months or even years after an eruption, prolonging exposure (Carlsen et al., 2012, Wilson et al., 2012).

Volcanic explosions inject volcanic ash into the atmosphere and it may be transported by prevailing winds hundreds or even thousands of kilometres away from a volcano. Airborne ash is a major hazard for aviation (Guffanti et al., 2010) [Chapter 14]. For example, eruptions at Galunggung volcano, Indonesia, in 1982 and Redoubt volcano, Alaska, in 1989 caused engine failure of two airliners that encountered the drifting volcanic ash clouds. Forecasting the dispersal of volcanic ash in the atmosphere for civil aviation (Bonadonna et al., 2012) is a major challenge during eruptions and is the role of Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres supported by volcano observatories [Chapter 12].

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