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A collection of probability problems from a university-level mathematics course. The problems cover various topics such as blackjack, the history of probability theory, drawing socks from a drawer, and poker hands. Students are asked to calculate probabilities using concepts such as conditional probability and the geometric pmf.
Typology: Assignments
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Reading assignment: Last subsection of 1.5; sections 1.6-2.2 (pages 39-49 of Chapter 1 and pages 1-9 of Chapter 2); accompanying practice problems with solutions to be distributed in class.
Problem 1. In blackjack, the objective is to get as close as possible to 21 without going over 21. The cards are valued as follows:
Suppose we use a 52-card deck.
(a) We draw two cards at random from a full deck. What is the probability to get a blackjack (i.e., a total of 21)?
(b) Suppose we started with a full deck and drew the 9 of clubs and the 9 of diamonds. What is the conditional probability that, if we draw another card, we bust (i.e., go over 21)? What is the conditional probability that this third card we draw will be a 3?
(c) Suppose we started with a full deck and drew a 7 of clubs and an 8 of spades. What is the conditional probability that the next card leads to a bust?
(d) Suppose we started with a full deck and drew a 5 of hearts and a 10 of clubs. What is the conditional probability that the next card leads to a bust?
Problem 2. An important milestone in the development of the theory of probability was the exchange of letters between Blaise Pascal (1623-1662) and Pierre Fermat (1601-1665), two French mathemati- cians. One motivation for these letters were problems proposed to Pascal by his friend Chevalier de M´er´e, in particular the one described in Problem 35 of Chapter 1. Another of de M´er´e’s problems is Problem 51, and here is yet another one.
De M´er´e bet that at least one 6 would appear during a total of four rolls of a fair six-sided die. From past experience, he knew that he was more successful than not with this game of chance. Tired of his approach, he decided to change the game. He bet that a double 6 would appear at least once during twenty-four rolls of two dice. Soon he realized that his old approach to the game resulted in more money. Please help him figure out why his new approach was not as profitable. (Hint. First, count the total number of outcomes of the first game. How many of them result in no 6’s?)
Problem 3. A drawer contains red socks and black socks. When two socks are drawn at random, the probability that both are red is 1/2. What is the smallest possible number of socks in the drawer?
Problem 4. Companies A, B, C, D, and E each send three delegates to a conference. A committee of four delegates, selected by a lot, is formed. Determine the probability that:
(a) Company A is not represented on the committee.
(b) Company A has exactly one representative on the committee.
(c) Neither company A nor company E is represented on the committee.
Problem 5. The Jones family household includes Mr. and Mrs. Jones, four children, two cats and three dogs. Every six hours there is a Jones family stroll. The rules for a Jones family stroll are: Exactly five beings (people + dogs + cats) go on each stroll. Each stroll must include at least one parent and at least one pet. There can never be a dog and a cat on the same stroll unless both parents go. All acceptable stroll groupings are equally likely.
Given that exactly one parent went on the 6pm stroll, what is the probability that Rover, the oldest dog, also went?
Problem 6. A poker hand consists of five cards. The different possible hands are:
Suppose we draw five cards at random from a deck of 52 cards.
(a) What is the probability to get four of a kind?
(b) What is the probability to get a full house?
(c) What is the probability to get three of a kind? (Hint. Keep in mind that a hand like 10-10-10- K-K is not three of a kind: it is a full house. Similarly, 10-10-10-10-K is not three of a kind, but four of a kind.)
(d) What is the probability to get a straight flush?