Appendix Discounting Formulae and Tables, Study notes of Finance

The analyst needs to know the discount rate and the number of years (see Table 9A.2, where the annuity factor for. 10 years at a discount rate of 5 per cent ...

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Appendix Discounting
Formulae and
Tables
The general discounting formula,
as
noted in the introductory
chapter,
is:
present value = net benefit0 + net benefit1 (D1) +
...
. . . net benefitn
(Dn)
where the net benefit terms are the result of adding together
negative and positive terms in the income stream and D1
•••
Dn
are discount factors:
11(1
+ rY
...
11(1
+
rt
for years 1 to n.
Software exists to handle present value calculations without the
analyst having to work through tables
of
discount factors, but
there are obvious intellectual benefits in understanding what
is
at
issue in any particular discounting problem. Consequently it
is
worthwhile showing how the basic formula may be manipulated to
perform simple calculations. Where the time stream contains a
constantly recurring annual net benefit term (or where either the
cost
or
benefit stream has a constant annual datum) there
is
a
useful formula which can be employed. The basic
PV
formula
is:
PV
=
NB
[11(1
+
rY
+
11(1
+
r)
2 +
...
11(1
+
rt]
(1)
where
NB
represents
NB
0,
NB
1
•••
NB
0, the annually recurring
net benefit term.
If
we multiply (1) by
(1
+
r)
we obtain:
PV
(1
+
r)
=
NB
[(1
+ r)/(1 +
r)
+
(1
+ r)/(1 +
r)
2
+
(1
+ r)/(1 +
r)
3 +
...
(1
+ r)/(1 +
r)n]
(2)
which may be simplified to:
PV
(1
+
r)
=
NB
[1
+
11(1
+
r)
+
11(1
+
r)
2
+
...
1/(1 + rt-1] (3)
274
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Appendix Discounting

Formulae and

Tables

The general discounting formula, as noted in the introductory

chapter, is:

present value = net benefit 0 + net benefit 1 (D 1) + ...

... net benefitn (Dn)

where the net benefit terms are the result of adding together

negative and positive terms in the income stream and D 1 ••• Dn

are discount factors: 11(1 + rY ... 11(1 + rt for years 1 to n.

Software exists to handle present value calculations without the

analyst having to work through tables of discount factors, but

there are obvious intellectual benefits in understanding what is^ at

issue in any particular discounting problem. Consequently it is

worthwhile showing how the basic formula may be manipulated to

perform simple calculations. Where the time stream contains a

constantly recurring annual net benefit term (or where either the

cost or benefit stream has a constant annual datum) there is a

useful formula which can be employed. The basic PV formula is:

PV = NB [11(1 + rY + 11(1 + r) 2 + ... 11(1 + rt] (1)

where NB represents NB0 , NB 1 ••• NB0 , the annually recurring

net benefit term. If we multiply (1) by (1 + r) we obtain:

PV (1 + r) = NB [(1 + r)/(1 + r) + (1 + r)/(1 + r) 2

+ (1 + r)/(1 + r) 3 + ... (1 + r)/(1 + r)n] (2)

which may be simplified to:

PV (1 + r) = NB [1 + 11(1 + r) + 11(1 + r) 2

+ ... 1/(1 + rt-^1 ] (3)

Now, if we subtract equation (1) from equation (3) we obtain:

PV (1+ r) - PV = NB [1- 1/(1 +r)n]

PV + PVr - PV = NB [1- 1/(1 + r)n]

PVr = NB [1- 1/(1 + r)n]

PV = NB [(1 - Dn)lr] (4)

Thus, if we know the net benefit term, the number of years in the

time stream, and the discount rate, then (4)can be evaluated. For

example, with NB = 10, n = 10, and r = 5 per cent (^) we have:

PV = 10 [(1 - 0.6139)/0.5] = 10 X 7.722 = 77.

The [bracketed] term in (4)iscalled an annuity factor, and tables

of such factors may be consulted without having to go through the

steps shown here. The analyst needs to know the discount rate and

the number of years (see Table 9A.2, where the annuity factor for

10 years at a discount rate of 5 per cent is seen to be 7.722).

The usefulness of the annuity formula is not yet exhausted,

however. Let us imagine that, instead of knowing the constant

annual term, NB, and wishing to calculate the present value, PV,

we know the PV and wish to find the constantly recurring annual

net benefit term. That problem is, evidently, the inverse of the

problem we have just solved. In ( 4) we used known data on the

right-hand side to calculate unknown data on the left-hand side;

now we want to solve for NB, which is easy enough:

PV = NB [(1 - Dn)/r] (4)

PV/[(1 - Dn)lr] = NB = PV x [r/(1 - Dn] (5)

Tables of the [bracketed] terms [r/(1 - Dn], called 'equivalent

annual value' (EA V) factors, have also been compiled - see

Appendix Table A3. They are clearly of use where two or more

options have different lives. In this case the analyst computes the

PVs and then finds the EAVs corresponding to those PVs in order

to compare all options on an equal footing.

Table A.l Discount factors: 1/(1 +rt D

Table A.2 Annuity factors: (1-Dn)/r =A

Index

Accidents, 64, 99-107,^ 114,^119

Acid rain, 9

Adams,^ J.G.V.,^ 122n

Afforestation,^16

Afroz,A., 199

Agriculture and

Common Agricultural Policy,

conversion/improvement,

191-5, 199,^ 205-

environmental effects, 190-4,

farmgate prices, 196, 201, 205,

fragmentation of holdings, 201

gross margins, 196,^ 201-

self-sufficiency, 196-

shadow prices, 198, 207-

world market prices, 196-

yields, 202

Air pollution, 109, 118-

American depositary receipts,^82

Amersham, 81

Annuality,^16

Antitrust policy, 12

Balance of payments, 162, 197

Beesley, M. & Littlechild, S., 72,

94n

Benefit estimation methods, 9-

Bishop, M. & Kay, J., 86

BLMC, 73, 74, 75, 81

Borrowing rates, 265-

Bowers, J.K., 191,^ 202,^ 211n

Bowers, J.K. & Cheshire, P.,^197

Breast cancer screening, 6~

British Aerospace, 81

British Rail, 110-

British Urban Motorways Project

Team, 110

British Telecom, 81

Broads Authority, 201

Brooks,H.,211n

Brookshire, D.S. eta/., 109

Building costs, 16

Burchell, A. and Weeden,R.,

Busby, R.J .N. & Grayson,A.J.,

165, 169, 171, 172, 185n

Bush, J.W., eta/., 65

Cable & Wireless, 81

Capital constraint, 58

Capital cost (apportionment),

Capital/labour ratio, 22, 23-

Capital, marginal product, 22

Capital requirements, 22, 24, 2~

Cash limits, 16

Central Computer and

Telecommunications Agency,

228, 229, 232-3, 234, 238n

Central Electricity Generating

Board, 126-

Central Health Services Council,

Centre for Agricultural Strategy,

165, 169, 171, 183, 185n

Channel tunnel, 1

Clawson, M., 36n

Clawson, M. & Knetsch, J.C.,

174, 175, 185n

Clover, C., 184

COBA, 99, 116-

Common Agricultural Policy,

186n

Compensation payments, 7, 8

Competitive tendering, 240

Computers and

budgets, 216, 230

clerical savings, 215,226--

cost-effectiveness analysis, 216,

equivalent annual values, 221,

freedoms, 215,^ 216, 219

life spans, 218-19,^225

maintenance costs, 222-

memory capacity, 226, 234

multi-attribute utility analysis,

processing speeds, 218, 234

response times, 226

software, 218, 222-3, 226

time savings, 230-

unintended consequences,^231

value for money, 224

Congestion, road, 6

Consumer surplus, 9, 175

Consumption, 19-20, 22

Consumption, marginal utility of,

2, 7, 26, 36n

Contingent valuation method, 11

Contracting out, 240

Corder,^ C.,^ 215, 226, 227,^230

Corporation tax, 261, 265, 266

Cost-effectiveness analysis, 12

Cost-estimation problems, 12-

Council for the^ Protection^ of

Rural England, 133

Countryside Commission, 185n

Cowsey, D.L. et al., 122n

Curwen, P., 72

Daffern, P.A. & Meakins, B.R.,

137, 211n

Dalvi, M.Q., 103, 105

Dartford Crossing,^240

Decay (of benefits),^27

Defence, 12

Defensive expenditures, 9

Delay case, 36n

De Marco, T., 227

Denne, T., Bown, M.J.D. &

Abel,J.A.,185n

Department of Environment,

Department of Health and Social

Security, 39-

Department of Trade and

Industry, 121

Department of Transport, 99-107,

De Serpa, A.C., 101

Devereux, M., 261

Discount factors, 18

Discount rates, 18, 19-26, 29,

Discounting, 3,6--7,17-30,274--

Dismal science, 1

Displacement (employment), 17

Distribution, 102, 127, 137-8,

Done, K., 94n

Drainage

environmental effects,^ 190-4,

field, 192

internal Drainage Board, 192,

land,^ 190-

land Drainage Act, 1976,^191

Economies of scale, 12,^14

Efficiency of markets, 15

Electricity and

advanced gas cooled reactor,

capacity, 126--9, 148-

decommissioning (nuclear),

demand, 128-33,^149

diversity^ of^ Supply,^ 129,^136

environmental effects, 127,

fuel prices, 128-38, 150-

greenhouse effect, 138, 151

net avoidable cost, 132-

net effective cost, 130-6, 151n

operating performance, 129-35,

151n

planning margin, 133,^148

outputs, 40-1, 62-

Health and Safety Executive, 144

Hedonic pricing, 11, 108-

Helliwell, D.R., 176, 178

Henry, C., 203

Highways Economics Note, 102-

Hill farming, 163

Hill Samuel, 73, 77, 86

Hospital

access, 45

bed norm, 44

capital cost apportionment,

equivalent annual cost, 57-fJ2,

69n

revenue costs, 40-fJ

terminal value, 41, 60

transport costs, 60

waiting lists, 11

Hurst, J.W., 39

Imperial Chemical Industries, 266

Imports of timber, 162

Income distribution, 2, 3, 17, 33

Income redistribution, 79

Income transfers, 2, 7, 8

Indian Famine Commission, 188

Inflation, 247, 252, 253, 254, 257,

Information technology, 12, 14,

Inner cities, 17, 227

Innovation, 15

Intangibles, 33, 107-

Interest rates, 20, 247, 249

Jaguar

cost per car, 87

counterfactual scenarios, 87-8,

94-fJ

dollar exchange rate, 77, 83,

efficiency improvements, 82-

employee share schemes, 73

flotation, 73-4, 86

growth scenarios, 75-

production efficiency, 77

public finances, 74-

share ownership, 81-

turnover/assets ratio, 87-

worker productivity, 83, 88

Job creation, 17, 163

Johansson, P.O., 107-

Jones-Lee, M.W., 107-

Jones-Lee, M.W. & Hammerton,

M., 104-fJ

Jones-Lee, M.W. et al., 105-fJ

Kaldor-Hicks criterion, 16, 36n

Kelso, W.A., 11, 14

Kind, P., Rosser, R. & Williams,

A., 65

King, J.L. & Schrems, E.L., 238n

Kula, E., 37n, 171, 172

Labour markets, 104

Land prices, 8, 164, 171

Land values, 55-6, 116

Lapsley, I. & Ferguson, K., 65

Layfield, Sir F., 126, 139

Life (cost or value)

actuarial approach, 103, 122n

general, 34, 64, 103-7, 143-

human capital approach, 105,

122n

insurance, 103

psychological costs, 146

revealed preference, 101, 104

stated preference, 101, 104

Limit price, 9

Lingard, J., 194

Local authority finance, 146-

Local authority housing, 240

Long-term borrowing rate, 265-

Longworth, G., 234

MacKerron, G., 132-

Mansfield, N.W., 36n

Manual of Environmental

Appraisal, 115-

Marin, A., 144-

Market failure, 99

McEachern, A.W., 69n, 177,

238n

McGuire, A. et al., 65-

Merthyr Tydfil, 1

Mitlin,D.,171, 185n

Money markets, 20, 21, 242-3,

Monopoly, 12, 73, 240

Mooney,G.,42, 64-5, 70

Moore,J.,78, 79, 80, 81

Multi-attribute utility analysis, 33,

MVA Consultancy, 101

National Audit Office, 183, 185n

Nationalised industries, 80, 240

National Radiological Protection

Board, 144

Nature Conservancy Council, 139

Nelson, J.P., 109

Neural tube defects, 114-

New Earnings Survey, 102

Nix,J., 202

Noise, 107-

Nominal values (gilts) 242, 247

NPV (net present value) matrix,

Objectives, 31, 45, 191,196--

Occam's razor, 79

Oligopoly, 12, 73

Opportunity cost, 1, 12, 86, 245

Option value (demand), 140,

O'Riordan, T. et al., 139, 146

Pareto, V., 36n, 203

Parliament, 35

Parliamentary question, 94

Parker, M.M., Benson, R.J. &

Trainor, H.E., 238n

Pearce, D.W., 109, 137

Pearce, D.W. & Markandya, A.,

Price elasticity, 15

Private sector finance and

advance rentals, 252-

buildings, 244, 247, 262-

capital markets, 241

corporation tax, 246, 256, 257,

economic incentives, 241, 262

financing costs, 245

fiscal incentives, 246--7, 249,

leasing, 242, 243-

leasing benefits, 261-

maintenance costs, 248, 250,

market rents, 243-4, 245

principal repayments, 249

rent reviews, 244, 249, 251-2,

residual value, 259

risk, 241, 243, 244, 245, 246,

tax ftowbacks, 246, 248, 250,

telephone exchange, 248-51,

unconventional finance, 244,

writing-down allowance, 255-

Privatisation, 31, 34, 72-97, 240

Privatisation objectives, 79-

Production function, 22

Producer surplus, 9

Property prices, 107-

Propper, C. , 36n

Public expenditure, 240

Public Expenditure Survey, 72

Public good, 3

Public sector borrowing, 241-

Public sector borrowing

Pearce, D.W. & Nash, C.A., 37n, requirement, 79-

100, 141-2 Public sector pay, 79

Pigou, A.C., 37n

Philip, M.S., 186n

Pingle, G., 188

Planning regulations, 11

Population growth, 22

Post-implementation review, 33

Public transport, 98-9, 110-

Public Works Loan Board, 202

QALY (quality-adjusted life

year), 65-

QUADRO (queues and delays at

modal split, 113-14, 118

National Travel Survey, 102

passenger flows, 113-

pedestrians, 113, 116

perceived costs, 102

substitute journeys, 114

trip assignment, 100

vehicle efficiency, 103

vehicle operating costs, 111-

vehicle users, 115-

Treasury, HM, 36n, 37n, 55, 79,

185n, 240, 241, 242, 261, 262,

Tribe, L.H., 211n

Turner, R.K., 201-2, 211n

Uncertainty, 117, 132-8, 143-5,

Unemployed labour, 162

Urban traffic control, 110, 118-

Valuation, 41, 63-9, 99-110, 140,

Veljanovski, C., 86

Vickerman, R.W., 185n

Voluntary unemployment, 15

Wages, 8

Water Act, 1973, 192

Webb, M., 129, 151n

Welfare criteria, 7-8, 16

Whetstone, L., 184

Wider share ownership, 79, 81-2,

Wildavsky,A., 137

Wildlife and Countryside Act

1981, 203, 21ln

Williams,A.,64, 68-9, 131

Willingness to pay, 8, 9, 69, 103,

Willis, K.G. & Benson, J.F., 175,

Wood prices, 15, 159-60, 163,

164, 170, 171, 172, 183, 185n

Word processors, 234

Yare barrier flood protection

proposal, 188-

Yarrow,G.,79, 81, 86, 94n