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Schools Forum –
10 th^ November 2016
School Sixth Forms - The 14-19 landscape and the diversification of School / College provision
1. Purpose
To inform Schools Forum of the challenges faced by School Sixth Forms following changes in Government policy and funding, including the growth of University Technical Colleges (UTCs), Studio Schools, Free Schools and Technical Academies.
2. Policy background
The school system has changed significantly over the last five years, with changes to Government funding of Post-16 education in particular being a considerable challenge. Not all the change is recent; Academies, UTCs and Studio Schools for instance were all around in various stages of development prior to 2010. The current school sector, however, is designed to give parents greater choice and schools greater freedom. Currently there exists:
- Over 2,000 Academies now open in England
- 291 Free Schools now open and 141 in the pipeline – DfE target 500 by 2020
- 34 Studio Schools now open with one in the pipeline
- 45 UTCs open.
In addition, since September 2013, GFE has been able to offer full time provision to 14-16yrs olds which adds more competition into the education system.
3. Definitions for these new types of organisations - Academies – Primary and Secondary Schools who are no longer part of the Local Authority are directly funded by the EFA and have additional responsibilities. - University Technical Colleges – Offering provision to students aged 14-19yrs, specialising in technical / vocational studies. Provision is full time, combining practical and academic studies which are delivered in work related context. A UTC has a maximum of 600 students. - Studio Schools – Offering provision to students aged 14-19yrs that is delivered using the CREATE skills framework which is practical and project based. Provision is full time and combines academic and vocational qualifications, with work experience featuring highly in the curriculum (4hrs a week pre-16, 2 days a week, paid at Post 16). A Studio School has a maximum of 300 students. The role of employers is pivotal in the curriculum development and delivery. - Free Schools – Academies established by interested stakeholder groups, directly funded by the Department for Education. - Technical Academies – Similar to UTCs but without the sponsorship of a University. 4. Information and Analysis
Current Local School Position
There are 45 secondary schools/academies in Derbyshire (not including independent schools).
Rep 680 Agenda item 7
Table below summarises the current school breakdown and Ofsted judgements.
No schools
11 - 18 11 - 16 Ofsted judgements Special Measures/ Serious Weaknesses
Requiring Improvement / Satisfactory*
Good Outstanding
Maintained 14 12 0 14 9 2 Academy 13 6 0 3 10** 3*
*includes an academy judged Outstanding as a maintained school and not since re-inspected. **includes two academies judged Good as maintained schools and not since re-inspected.
For some schools the Department for Education, under the auspices of the Regional School Commissioner, may intervene and increase the number of sponsored academies in Derbyshire to address under performance (Ofsted categories and not reaching the coasting standard). It is also likely that some existing academies will not meet the coasting standard.
Post-16 School Finance
- Background The Education Funding Agency (EFA), and prior to that the Young People’s Learning Agency (YPLA) and the Learning & Skills Council (LSC), have been responsible for funding Post 16 students since April 2002.
The EFA operates a national post 16 funding formula which LAs cannot amend. Full details can be found at: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/16-to-19-funding-how-it-works
The same formula funds FE Colleges and a range of other providers with the Post 16 financial year (FY) running from August to July rather than LAs’ FY from April to March.
- Post 16 National Funding Formula
The National Formula is determined and operated by the EFA. There have been many changes over the years but it currently operates as follows:
Programme Funding - Student Numbers [October census numbers apportioned into bands according to planned learning hours, 540+ hours (e.g. 3 A levels + Enrichment studies) being classed as ‘full time’]
x National Funding Rate [£4,000 for a full 540 hr programme, less for smaller programmes]
x Retention Factor [-50% funding adjustment for any student not completing their programme]
x Programme Cost weighting [funding for higher cost courses, not usually applicable in schools]
Disadvantage [based on post code data and low prior attainment in English & Maths]
Large Programme Funding [for the achievement of high grades in programmes of >540 hr]
Area Cost Allowance [London & South East, N/A in Derbyshire]
+/- Condition of Funding Adjustment [a funding deduction for non-compliance of the requirement for all students to attain GCSE English & Maths at Grade A*-C]
Currently, in the absence of defined admission proposals, it is difficult to assess accurately what impact the new 14-19 provision developments outside of Derbyshire will have on Derbyshire schools that are in close proximity. However, what we can say is that the Sheffield, Mansfield and Derby City proposals are likely to attract Derbyshire learners, given the accessible transport links.
Data analysis of 11-19yrs cohort numbers
Demographics - changes due to birth rate, migration and immigration will have an impact on the number of learners who will be entering 11-19 education provision in Derbyshire. Over the next 4/5 years, there is a significant fall in the number of learners moving through our secondary and Post 16 phase of education, although this is projected to increase again towards 2039.
The table below summarises the forecast demand for places in secondary schools (11-18) in each Learning Community. The figures are based on current patterns of recruitment and do not attempt to factor in any change due to the new UTCs mentioned above. The data equally does not include any allowance for additional pupils due to new housing developments. However, any impact on this timescale would be minor at the level of a learning community.
Appendix 3, which is taken from the 2016 EFA Data for 16-18, shows starts by institution. The figures clearly indicate we are a net exporter of learners out of the County.
Forecast pupil numbers by learning community
Learning Community 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Bamber Total 5546 5462 5526 5559 5700 5768
Chesterfield AIS total 12655 12754 13003 13258 13600 13701
Peak11 8323 8228 8207 8221 8343 8373
SAVE total 6770 6786 6883 6915 7082 7107
South total 3911 3918 4030 4076 4167 4232
County Total 37205 37148 37649 38029 38892 39181
These figures show that secondary numbers should have reached a low point (January 2017) and
numbers are due to decline until 2018/19 and then recover slightly. This is illustrated in the tables below.
- should now rise as pupil numbers feeding through from the primary phase increase. Post - Post 16 Post 16 Post 16 Post 16 Post 16 Post The table below shows the forecast 16+ rolls by learning community for the next five years. - Learning Community - Bamber Total
- Chesterfield AIS total - Peak11 - SAVE total - South total - County Total
- Learning Community Total Total Total Total Total Total
- Chesterfield AIS total - Peak11 - SAVE total - South total - County Total
JOHN PORT SCHOOL Academy 327 327
LADY MANNERS SCHOOL Maintained 304 304
NETHERTHORPE SCHOOL Academy 300 300
DRONFIELD HENRY FANSHAWE SCHOOL Maintained 295 295 ST MARY'S CATHOLIC HIGH SCHOOL, A CATHOLIC VOLUNTARY ACADEMY Academy 282 282
HIGHFIELDS SCHOOL Maintained 264 264
BELPER SCHOOL AND SIXTH FORM CENTRE Maintained 250 250
QUEEN ELIZABETH'S GRAMMAR SCHOOL Academy 238 238
THE LONG EATON SCHOOL Academy 189 189
BUXTON COMMUNITY SCHOOL Maintained 186 186
THE PINGLE SCHOOL Maintained 175 175
HEANOR GATE SCIENCE COLLEGE Academy 161 161
FRIESLAND SCHOOL Maintained 160 160
GLOSSOPDALE COMMUNITY COLLEGE Maintained 156 156
KIRK HALLAM COMMUNITY ACADEMY Academy 144 161
ALDERCAR HIGH SCHOOL Maintained 142 142
ECKINGTON SCHOOL Maintained 137 137
SWANWICK HALL SCHOOL Academy 133 133
THE RIPLEY ACADEMY Academy 125 125
OUTWOOD ACADEMY NEWBOLD Academy 124 124
ANTHONY GELL SCHOOL Maintained 101 101
NEW MILLS SCHOOL & SIXTH FORM Maintained 89 89
WILSTHORPE COMMUNITY SCHOOL Maintained 82 82
ORMISTON ILKESTON ENTERPRISE ACADEMY Academy 76 closed
HOPE VALLEY COLLEGE
Academy – SEN Provision 16 24
DAVID NIEPER ACADEMY Academy 0
Will restart recruitment in 2017 Source: Data is from Local Authority data tool and allocations statements from EFA.
Those schools highlighted in green have sixth form numbers in excess of the 200, those in amber are below this threshold and those in red must be considered at risk as they are significantly below the 200. The future of provision in the at risk schools needs to be considered using the options detailed in section 6 of this paper and in collaboration with Education Improvement Service which holds detailed information about each of the schools.
It should be noted that Hope Valley is a new sixth form and specialises in SEN provision so is not included in this analysis, and the David Nieper Academy suspended its sixth form, but is due to start recruiting again in 2017.
Appendix 1 of this paper maps the 6th^ form schools over-laid with 16-18 population density and NEET percentage.
Considerations for Schools and the Local Authority
- All institutions must recognise and factor in the reduction in Post 16 cohort size by 2018.
- The introduction of new provision, whether this is UTCs, Studio Schools, Technical Academies or Free Schools, currently does not take into account the impact on the current provision.
- Whilst there is a consultation, which the Local Authority will be involved in, the Government will make the decision based on the business case that is presented to them. The Local Authority cannot stop any new developments on its own.
- The school cohort data clearly indicates that there are some serious concerns regarding the risks to existing school post 16 provision and this will could be exacerbated by any new provision that is developed.
- Current NEET figures are reducing, and those who are NEET will not generally meet 6th^ form entry requirements.
- There are significant issues of a number of at risk sixth forms in areas of high NEET, where young people cannot access the 6th^ form provision.
- Changing the socio-economic nature of some areas requiring changes in post-16 provision, e.g. A38 corridor in Amber Valley. 6. Options for consideration by the 6th^ Form Sector
The central issue currently is that we have falling rolls across most of Derbyshire and too many schools with spare capacity both at pre and post 16. This situation is compounded by the creation of UTCs, Studio Schools and Technical Academies either within, or close to, Derbyshire boundaries. Appendix 2 outlines some of the thoughts that should be considered when deciding on a course of action.
This mismatch between supply (schools offering viable sixth forms) and demand (student numbers) may be resolved when the current increase in students numbers being observed in primary schools works its way through the system, but this will not impact until 2021 at the earliest, and will not bring 16+ rolls back up to the level in 2016/17. This future increase, however, does limit or temper some of the options suggested below. N.B the options are not necessarily stand alone and can be combined.
Option 1: Propose the closure of small 6th^ Forms (particularly where numbers are falling dramatically or standards are an issue)
Advantages Disadvantages
- Excess capacity removed from the system
- Reorganisation of schools to improve sustainability
- Rationalisation of provision
- Reduction in parental and student choice
- The school may decide to convert to Academy status and avoid closure.
- Communities lose their school
- May increase travel to learn and cost to travel to learn particularly in rural communities
- Parental lobby may generate adverse publicity
- May encourage others e.g. Free schools to fill the void
- Financial burden of redundancies
- Capacity may be needed in future years as larger cohorts from the primary schools impact.
The options detailed above offer a high, medium and low risk approach. Schools will want to consider the legal, financial and personnel implications alongside consideration of social externalities of these and adopt or reconfigure as appropriate.
7. General Recommendations - Note the information in this report - Schools work with the Local Authority to develop a strategy to tackle the challenges to sixth form provision - Schools identify nominations to work with the LA on this strategy - LA to organise a Post-16 summit of all providers including FE and Training providers to consult on the strategy - Schools need to undertake review their finances and curriculum in their Post 16 provision and identify what changes, if any, are needed. - Schools that are clustered, schools look to collaborate and explore collaborative opportunities in terms of curriculum offer and staffing, to counter the impact of the forecast fall in numbers at Post 16 alongside collaboration could be with Colleges and Independent Training Providers. - School with Sixth Forms need to consider how to promote their offer to their local communities. 8. Schools Forum Recommendation
Schools Forum is asked to note the information contained in the report and offer its views on the issues raised.
Appendix 1 (see below)
David Nieper Academy will restart recruitment in 2017 but is not shown
throughout an extended academic year, excellent facilities and resources and a strong work ethic.
- There is a danger that these institutions attract the more able students and leave some small schools struggling to hit National floor targets with the resultant cohort. Places planning
- The granting of permission to open 14-19 schools and colleges lies with the DfE. There is a consultation process. This effectively removes from the LA any control over increased capacity and will create pressure on small 11-16 schools and small sixth forms.
- Local authorities are under a duty to include UTCs and Studio Schools in coordinated admissions arrangements and make their details available.
- The RPA responsibility of the Local Authorities means that they have to ensure that there is sufficient and appropriate provision available to all learners and this will include looking at skills shortages which may be addressed by a Studio School or UTC. Local Communities
- The LA will need to be cognisant of the impact on local communities of any proposed school closures or mergers brought about by new provision. They will also need to manage in some local communities a significant lobby for school diversification.
Employers
Higher skilled workforce
- The development of new 14-19 provision receives strong support from local and national employers as they believe it will help improve the quality of technical and vocational education.
- There is the potential for large employers in Derbyshire to recruit heavily from 14-19 schools / colleges and therefore disadvantage young people in mainstream and ordinary Academy schools. Skills shortages (^) • The current 14-19 developments in Derbyshire and surrounding areas will match with the priority skills areas that both LEPs have identified.
- 14-19 schools and colleges through their application process have to display an understanding of Labour Market Information and skills shortages.
- This should have a beneficial impact on local industry, create jobs for local people who have high level skills, increase investment and reduce the number of economic migrants who work and earn in Derbyshire but return to Counties bordering Derbyshire to spend their disposable income. Opportunities to influence curriculum
- Employers are heavily involved in planning, designing and delivering the curriculum in 14-19 schools and colleges. They will also provide equipment and other resources needed to deliver a technical education. This ensures that young people in these organisations have a solid grounding in terms of business and employability skills which puts them at a natural advantage and may influence the labour market. Apprenticeships (^) • Those young people leaving 14-19 schools and colleges should have the qualifications to transfer to both level 3 and level 4 Apprenticeships which young people in mainstream schools would be unlikely to do.
Appendix 3
16-19 Starts by Provider type (excluding Apprenticeships) Figures from the 2016 Pivot tables from EFA
All Derbyshire Residents – All Institutions (starts) 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Grand Total FE (^) 10,320 10,085 9,833 30, Sixth Form 6,502 6,390 6,121 19, Other 11 15 3 29 Total 16,833 16,490 15,957 49,
Derbyshire residents at non Derbyshire based Institutions (starts) 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Grand Total FE 6,894 6,820 6,577 20, Sixth Form 887 933 994 2, Other 11 15 3 29 Total 7,792 7,768 7,574 23,
Derbyshire Residents at Non Derbyshire and Non Derby City Institutions 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Grand Total FE 4,434 4,327 4,062 12, Sixth Form 611 654 686 1, Other 11 15 3 29 Total (^) 5,056 4,996 4,751 14,
Highlights a lot of our young people go into the city
All Starts at Derbyshire Institutions
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Grand Total FE 3,741 3,569 3,548 10, Sixth Form 6,005 5,832 5,472 17, Total 9,746 9,401 9,020 28,
Non Derbyshire Residents at Derbyshire Institutions
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Grand Total FE 343 330 319 992 Sixth Form 390 375 345 1, Total 733 705 664 2,
Non Derbyshire/Derby City Residents at Derbyshire Institutions
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Grand Total 306 267 280 853 189 175 164 528 495 442 444 1,
The figures clearly indicate we are a net exporter of learners
