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An in-depth analysis of energy transfers' dividend history over the last ten years, calculating annual growth rates and selecting high-end and low-end dividend growth rates for preliminary valuation. The constant growth formula is used to calculate stock prices based on the selected growth rates and the most recent dividend, with the results indicating that energy transfers' stock may be undervalued.
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Section 3: Dividend Analysis and Preliminary Valuation The University of Arizona Global Campus BUS 401: Principles of Finance Section 3: Dividend Analysis and Preliminary Valuation Part 1: Dividend Analysis Over the last ten years ET has paid dividends quarterly. The table below shows ET’s annual dividends over the last ten years and the annual growth rate. Table 6 ET’s Annual Dividends ET Year Dividend Per Share Annual Growth Rate 2020 $ 1.07 -12.30% 2019 $ 1.22 0% 2018 $ 1.22 7.02% 2017 $ 1.14 0% 2016 $ 1.14 -23.49% 2015 $ 1.49 -0.07% 2014 $ 1.50 -42.53% 2013 $ 2.61 4.40% 2012 $ 2.50 6.38% 2011 $ 2.35 8.80%
Energy Transfers growth rate over the last 10 years is down quite a bit to -51.67%. ET’s average growth rate over the last five years is -28.77% and the three-year average growth rate is -5.28%. Energy Transfer’s annual dividends have been on the decline almost every year over the last ten years at its high in 2013 the dividends per share was $2.61 and the lowest year being 2020 where it decreased all the way to $1.07. After reviewing the dividend growth rate, I have selected a I have selected 2.0% as the high-end dividend growth rate. This is based on the 10-year average as well as the low growth rate in 2020. In addition, I have selected 0.0% as the low-end growth rate. This is based on the three-year average as well as the growth rates in 2018 and 2019. These growth rate estimates are supported by ET’s financial performance in 2020. Part 2: Preliminary Valuation The constant growth formula can be used to calculate a stock price for ET. The constant growth formula uses the most recent dividend (D), a dividend growth rate (g), and a discount rate (r) to calculate a stock price. This formula is as follows: price = D (1+ g ) ( r − g ) For the first calculation Energy Transfer dividend growth rate is 2% (g), the low-end dividend growth rate. The most recent annual dividend was $1.07 per share (D) and as a large cap company the discount rate is 10% using this formula the calculated stock price is $10.70.