Understanding Real Estate Absorption: Calculation and Role in Local Planning, Study notes of Construction

Learn about absorption in real estate, its calculation process, and its significance in local planning. Absorption represents the demand for a type of real estate contrasted with supply, and is a useful initial step in forecasting future land use. A step-by-step guide on how to calculate absorption, using a retail space example.

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WHAT IS ABSORPTION?
Absorption is the amount of space or units occupied within a market over a given period of time, typically one year.
Absorption considers both construction of new space and removal of existing space and/or units. In general, absorption
represents the demand for a type of real estate contrasted with supply. When demand is less than supply, vacancy
increases and absorption is negative. Negative absorption can indicate changes in the larger economy, such as a decline
in employment due to the closing of a business.
Generally, absorption should be separated by type and/or class of property, and tabulated over a period of several years
to show trends in the local real estate market. These trends can support the forecasting of future absorption and real
estate needs for particular property types.
PURPOSE AND ROLE IN PLANNING
Absorption analysis is a useful initial step in the forecasting of future land use. In addition to an understanding of
demographic, household, and economic trends, an understanding of absorption trends is can be a key component in
a well-grounded approach to planning how much and what type of land a community should plan for in the future. By
calculating absorption, communities can inform everything from their own economic development strategy to capital
improvements planning.
HOW TO CALCULATE ABSORPTION
Calculating absorption is a relatively straightforward mathematical process. Quite simply, absorption is the difference
between the amount of occupied space in a particular market area at the beginning and end of a given time period. The
most common units of measurement for absorption are square feet and/or acres (especially for non-residential uses) and
number of units (generally, for residential uses). As noted above, the difference can be positive or negative, and should
account for both new construction/redevelopment as well as demolition/repurposing. To calculate absorption, take the
following steps:
STEP 1. Determine the total occupied space (Ob ) at the beginning of the period. To do this, subtract vacant space at the
beginning of the period (Vb ) from all usable space at the beginning of the period (Sb ).
Ob = Sb โ€“ Vb
STEP 2. Determine the total occupied space (Oe ) at the end of the period. To do this, subtract vacant space at the end
of the period (Ve ) from all usable space at the end of the period (Se ).
Oe = Se โ€“ Ve
STEP 3. Calculate the ABSORPTION. Subtract the total occupied space (Ob ) at the beginning of the period from the
total occupied space (Oe ) at the end of the period. The result is the Net Absorption (A).
A = Oe โ€“ Ob
CALCULATING ABSORPTION LOCAL PLANNING
HANDBOOK
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WHAT IS ABSORPTION?

Absorption is the amount of space or units occupied within a market over a given period of time, typically one year. Absorption considers both construction of new space and removal of existing space and/or units. In general, absorption represents the demand for a type of real estate contrasted with supply. When demand is less than supply, vacancy increases and absorption is negative. Negative absorption can indicate changes in the larger economy, such as a decline in employment due to the closing of a business. Generally, absorption should be separated by type and/or class of property, and tabulated over a period of several years to show trends in the local real estate market. These trends can support the forecasting of future absorption and real estate needs for particular property types.

PURPOSE AND ROLE IN PLANNING

Absorption analysis is a useful initial step in the forecasting of future land use. In addition to an understanding of demographic, household, and economic trends, an understanding of absorption trends is can be a key component in a well-grounded approach to planning how much and what type of land a community should plan for in the future. By calculating absorption, communities can inform everything from their own economic development strategy to capital improvements planning.

HOW TO CALCULATE ABSORPTION

Calculating absorption is a relatively straightforward mathematical process. Quite simply, absorption is the difference between the amount of occupied space in a particular market area at the beginning and end of a given time period. The most common units of measurement for absorption are square feet and/or acres (especially for non-residential uses) and number of units (generally, for residential uses). As noted above, the difference can be positive or negative, and should account for both new construction/redevelopment as well as demolition/repurposing. To calculate absorption, take the following steps: STEP 1. Determine the total occupied space (Ob ) at the beginning of the period. To do this, subtract vacant space at the beginning of the period (Vb ) from all usable space at the beginning of the period (Sb ).

Ob = Sb โ€“ Vb

STEP 2. Determine the total occupied space (Oe ) at the end of the period. To do this, subtract vacant space at the end of the period (Ve ) from all usable space at the end of the period (Se ).

Oe = Se โ€“ Ve

STEP 3. Calculate the ABSORPTION. Subtract the total occupied space (Ob ) at the beginning of the period from the total occupied space (Oe ) at the end of the period. The result is the Net Absorption (A).

A = Oe โ€“ Ob

CALCULATING ABSORPTION

LOCAL PLANNING

H A N D B O O K

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January 2016 Metropolitan Council 390 Robert Street North Saint Paul, MN 55101

LOCAL PLANNING

H A N D B O O K

EXAMPLE: Calculating Retail Absorption (Square Footage) The local planning department conducted a retail space inventory in 2010, and maintains a permitting database for all development and demolition activity in the community. The inventory found that in 2010, the community had a total of 7,500,000 square feet (SF) of developed, rentable retail space, and 426,500 SF of that space was vacant. Their permitting database revealed the following activity, tracked annually: For their comprehensive plan, the community wanted to determine overall retail absorption trend for the period of 2010 to 2015. Step 1. Determine the total occupied space (Ob ) at the beginning of the period. (Ob ) = (Sb - Vb ) (Ob ) = 7,500,000 SF โ€“ 426,500 SF (Ob ) = 7,073,500 ft^2 Step 2. Determine the total occupied space (Oe) at the end of the period. (Oe ) = (Se โ€“ Ve ) (Oe ) = 7,699,900 SF โ€“ 532,250 SF (Oe ) = 7,167,650 ft^2 Step 3. Calculate the ABSORPTION. (A) = 7,167,650 ft^2 - 7,073,500 ft^2 = 94,150 ft^2 YEAR New Development Conversion from Other Use (Occupied) Other New Occupancy (Existing SF+ New SF) Demolished SF Vacated SF^

NEW

VACANT SF

(Vx )

TOTAL SF

(Sx ) 2010 426,500^ 7,500, 2011 -^ 16,000^ 8,400^ 60,000^ 36,500^ 454,600^ 7,456, 2012 -^ 66,000^ 24,000^ 120,000^ 80,250^ 510,850^ 7,402, 2013 80,000^ 13,000^ 54,600^ 14,200^ 14,500^ 550,750^ 7,480, 2014 143,500 22,800 105,200 30,500 11,800 600,850 7,616, 2015 64,500 35,600 155,600 16,800 22,500 532,250 7,699,