Download DCF analysis with assumption and more Cheat Sheet Economics in PDF only on Docsity!
Unlevered Free Cash Flow (mm) Fiscal Year 2017A 2018A Revenue 46,161,691,614,304 55,836,458,379, COGS 35,536,120,578,221 44,165,626,148, Gross Profit 10,625,571,036,083 11,670,832,231, Operating Expenses Selling, General, Administrative 594,707,868,484 676,809,221, Total Operating Expenses 594,707,868,484 676,809,221, EBITDA 10,030,863,167,599 10,994,023,009, Depreciation & Amortization 1,871,403,078,188 2,206,371,738, Operating Profit (EBIT) 8,159,460,089,411 8,787,651,270, Operating Taxes 1,273,613,156,649 1,470,522,166, NOPAT (Net Operating Profit After Taxes) 6,885,846,932,762 7,317,129,104, (+) Depreciation & Amortization 1,871,403,078,188 2,206,371,738, (-) Capital Expenditures 2,398,739,900,101 1,791,135,668, (-) Change in NWC 5,015,369,556,995 -3,687,102,161, NWC 12,373,528,180,744 8,686,426,018, Current Assets 18,866,711,331,919 19,068,545,341, Current Liabilitites 6,493,183,151,175 10,382,119,322, Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCFC) 1,343,140,553,854 11,419,467,337,
Assumptions Fiscal Year 2017A 2018A Revenue Growth 38.7% 21.0%
COGS % of Revenue 77.0% 79.1% SG&A % of Revenue 1.3% 1.2% Tax % of EBIT 15.6% 16.7%
2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E
2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E
Fixed Assets Schedule Fiscal Year 2017A 2018A Beginning PP&E 12,670,459,873,438 13,197,796,695, D&A 1,871,403,078,188 2,206,371,738, CapEx 2,398,739,900,101 1,791,135,668, Ending PP&E 13,197,796,695,351 12,782,560,625,
Assumptions Fiscal Year 2017A 2018A D&A as a % of Beginning PP&E 14.8% 16.7% CapEx as a % of Beginning PP&E 18.9% 13.6%
2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E
2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E
Net Working Capital Fiscal Year 2016A 2017A Accounts Receivables 2,394,830,525,734 6,555,418,799, Merchandise Inventory 10,247,175,680,697 11,748,873,281, Other Current Assets 288,621,019,303 562,419,250, Current Assets 12,930,627,225,734 18,866,711,331,
Accounts Payable 3,733,634,506,722 4,226,437,580, Accrued Salaries and Benefits 262,345,657,297 294,643,257, Accrued Member Rewards 399,761,246,105 705,690,675, Deferred Membership Fees 1,036,123,955,455 824,276,288, Other Current Liabilities 140,603,236,406 442,135,349, Current Liabilities 5,572,468,601,985 6,493,183,151,
Assumptions Fiscal Year 2016A 2017A Revenue 33,283,210,159,987 46,161,691,614, COGS 24,532,650,438,985 35,536,120,578,
Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 26.3 51. Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO) 152.5 120. Days Payable Outstanding (DPO) 55.5 43.
Other Current Assets as a % of Revenue 0.9% 1.2% Accrued Salaries as a % of Revenue 0.8% 0.6% Accrued Member Rewards as a % of Revenue 1.2% 1.5% Deferred Membership Fees as a % of Revenue 3.1% 1.8% Other Current Liabilities as a % of Revenue 0.4% 1.0%
2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A
2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A
2026E
2026E
Unlevered Free Cash Flow (mm) Fiscal Year 2017A Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,343,140,553,
Projection Year Present Value of Free Cash Flow
Implied Share Price Calculation Sum of PV of FCF 55,941,490,186, Growth Rate 6.4% WACC 9.6% Terminal Value 1,068,610,037,693, PV of Terminal Value 674,716,941,587, Enterprise Value 730,658,431,773, (+) Cash 22,471,375,562, (-) Debt 57,212,575,081, (-) Minority Interest 154,788,720, Equity Value 695,762,443,533, Diluted Shares Outstanding (mm) 5,814,785, Implied Share Price 119,
2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E
Market Sentiment
Growth Rate
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) Equity 90,780,625,511, Debt 57,212,575,081,
Risk Free Rate (10-Yr Treasury Yield) 4% Excess CDS spread 1.37% Cost of Debt 6.0% Tax Rate 20.0% D/(D+E) 38.7% After Tax Cost of Debt 4.8%
Risk Free Rate (10-Yr Treasury Yield) 4.0% Market Risk Premium 7.8% Levered Beta 1. E/(D+E) 61.3% Cost of Equity 12.7%
WACC 9.6%
18.2 Lợi nhuận sau thuế của công ty mẹ
19. Lãi cơ bản trên cổ phiếu
20. Lãi suy giảm trên cổ phiếu
21. Cổ tức
- 33,884,892,008,435 46,854,825,722,466 56,580,423,695, - 601,681,848,448 693,134,108,162 743,965,315,
- 33,283,210,159,987 46,161,691,614,304 55,836,458,379,
- 24,532,650,438,985 35,536,120,578,221 44,165,626,148,
- 8,750,559,721,002 10,625,571,036,083 11,670,832,231,
- 197,181,167,853 186,215,464,700 294,408,270,
- 367,986,756,135 555,756,583,746 772,317,161,
- 279,951,879,407 479,707,569,855 539,861,243, - -534,948,182 -159,611,
- 489,954,015,797 594,707,868,484 676,809,221,
- 404,587,312,609 409,038,156,382 444,024,985,
- 7,684,677,856,132 9,252,124,280,568 10,072,089,132,
- 434,468,369,665 432,791,811,829 488,856,588,
- 417,322,272,122 396,546,349,700 489,872,848, - 17,146,097,543 36,245,462,129 -1,016,260,
- 7,701,823,953,675 9,288,369,742,697 10,071,072,872,
- 1,138,489,987,447 1,317,628,785,035 1,506,320,087, - -42,868,760,701 -44,015,628,386 -35,797,921,
- 6,606,202,726,929 8,014,756,586,048 8,600,550,706, - 4,100,726,657 8,084,472,201 27,536,495,
- 6,602,102,000,272 8,006,672,113,847 8,573,014,210,
- 64,677,906,575,644 91,279,041,771,826 150,865,359,967,
- 1,019,713,901,853 1,160,538,345,109 1,185,569,987,
- 63,658,192,673,791 90,118,503,426,717 149,679,789,979,
- 52,472,820,451,654 71,214,453,522,563 108,571,380,446,
- 11,185,372,222,137 18,904,049,904,154 41,108,409,532, - 471,053,832,011 1,004,789,766,270 3,071,440,640,
- 1,181,675,710,916 2,837,406,430,588 3,731,542,257,
- 936,710,218,359 2,191,680,923,417 2,525,823,258, - -1,431,313,615 1,964,631,764 4,465,302,
- 873,333,584,688 1,090,795,558,423 2,120,068,223,
- 569,005,805,722 690,298,504,185 1,324,261,548,
- 9,030,979,639,207 15,292,303,808,992 37,008,443,446,
- 657,680,931,477 654,081,334,225 796,666,105,
- 591,998,447,298 589,418,351,516 748,331,838, - 65,682,484,179 64,662,982,709 48,334,267,
- 9,096,662,123,386 15,356,966,791,701 37,056,777,714,
- 1,603,307,926,680 1,784,567,843,866 2,855,306,347, - -84,894,039,523 66,234,890,928 -319,483,564,
- 7,578,248,236,229 13,506,164,056,907 34,520,954,931, - 50,805,368,355 55,864,004,095 42,811,733,
- 7,527,442,867,874 13,450,300,052,812 34,478,143,197,
