Political Science Homework: Statistical Significance Tests & Chi-square Analysis, Assignments of Political Science

A political science homework assignment from spring 2003 focusing on statistical significance tests and chi-square analysis. The assignment includes four parts, each involving analyzing data from surveys on various topics such as partisanship, cigarette taxes, television watching, and late-term abortions. Students are required to perform chi-square tests, construct confidence intervals, and identify potential confounding variables.

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Pre 2010

Uploaded on 09/07/2009

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Political Science 3, Spring 2003
Homework Assignment #3: Statistical Significance Tests
Due at the beginning of class on Thursday, April 3
1. In January, Gallup surveyed a random sample of 1000 individuals from the population of
American adults. The survey asked individuals whether they think of themselves as Democrats,
Republicans, or Independents. It also asked individuals what they believed to be the most
important problem facing the country. A researcher hopes to test the hypothesis that partisanship
leads individuals to identify different problems as important. The results were as follows:
Partisanship
Democrat Independent Republican Total
Most Important
Problem:
The Economy 190 150 120 460
Iraq 110 150 140 400
North Korea 50 30 60 140
Totals 350 330 320 1000
a. Perform a chi-square test to assess whether the relationship between partisanship and the most
important problem identified by respondents is statistically significant. Specify what the null
hypothesis is and whether you can reject that hypothesis with 95% confidence. Show your
work. Can we conclude from these results that, among the population of American adults,
partisanship is related to perceptions of the most important problem?
b. Construct a 99.7% confidence interval for the proportion of American adults who claim that
the economy is the most important problem facing the country. Show your work and interpret
the results.
c. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of American adults who are
Democrats. Show your work and interpret the results.
2. In a follow-up study to the Green and Gerken analysis of self-interest and support for smoking
restrictions, Professor Z surveyed 1300 Californians, asking them what they believe is the
appropriate level of taxes on cigarette purchases. The mean level of cigarette taxes supported by
the 400 smokers in the sample was 70 cents a pack, with a standard deviation of 10 cents. The
mean level of cigarette taxes supported by the 900 non-smokers in the sample was 90 cents a
pack, with a standard deviation of 15 cents.
a. Construct a 99.7% confidence interval for the mean level of cigarette taxes supported by
California smokers. Show your work and interpret the results.
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Political Science 3, Spring 2003 Homework Assignment #3: Statistical Significance Tests Due at the beginning of class on Thursday, April 3

  1. In January, Gallup surveyed a random sample of 1000 individuals from the population of American adults. The survey asked individuals whether they think of themselves as Democrats, Republicans, or Independents. It also asked individuals what they believed to be the most important problem facing the country. A researcher hopes to test the hypothesis that partisanship leads individuals to identify different problems as important. The results were as follows: Partisanship Democrat Independent Republican Total Most Important Problem : The Economy 190 150 120 460 Iraq 110 150 140 400 North Korea 50 30 60 140 Totals 350 330 320 1000 a. Perform a chi-square test to assess whether the relationship between partisanship and the most important problem identified by respondents is statistically significant. Specify what the null hypothesis is and whether you can reject that hypothesis with 95% confidence. Show your work. Can we conclude from these results that, among the population of American adults, partisanship is related to perceptions of the most important problem? b. Construct a 99.7% confidence interval for the proportion of American adults who claim that the economy is the most important problem facing the country. Show your work and interpret the results. c. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of American adults who are Democrats. Show your work and interpret the results.
  2. In a follow-up study to the Green and Gerken analysis of self-interest and support for smoking restrictions, Professor Z surveyed 1300 Californians, asking them what they believe is the appropriate level of taxes on cigarette purchases. The mean level of cigarette taxes supported by the 400 smokers in the sample was 70 cents a pack, with a standard deviation of 10 cents. The mean level of cigarette taxes supported by the 900 non-smokers in the sample was 90 cents a pack, with a standard deviation of 15 cents. a. Construct a 99.7% confidence interval for the mean level of cigarette taxes supported by California smokers. Show your work and interpret the results.

b. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean level of cigarette taxes supported by California non-smokers. Show your work and interpret the results.

  1. A researcher hypothesizes that watching lots of television leads people to be less likely to vote. In the Microcase software, open the “GSS” file. Examine the relationship between how much television respondents reported watching per day (variable #71; variable name: Watch TV) and whether the respondent reported voting in the 1996 election (variable #12; variable name: Vote in 96) a. Is there a relationship between these two variables? If so, how big does the relationship appear to be? Does the evidence so far support the researcher’s hypothesis? (NOTE: Please attach a print-out of your output for this and the Microcase problems below when you hand in the homework). b. Using a chi-square test, is the relationship between how much television people watch and voter turnout in the 1996 election statistically significant? Specify what the null hypothesis is and whether you can reject that hypothesis with 95% confidence. (Note: You do not need to compute the chi-square statistic by hand in this case; Microcase can perform that task for you). c. Identify one potential confounding variable. Explain why you believe the variable is a plausible confound. What happens when one controls for the confound you have identified? Is this an example of replication, specification, or explanation? What do you conclude about the researcher’s hypothesis? (Note: Do not comment on the statistical significance of the results you obtain when you control for the confound).
  2. Professor X is interested in testing the hypothesis that men are more supportive of a ban on late- term abortions than are women. In the Microcase software, open the “NES” file. Examine the relationship between gender (variable #5, variable name: Sex) and support for a ban on late-term abortions (variable #43; variable name: Late Term). a. Is there a relationship between these two variables? If so, how big does the relationship appear to be? Does the evidence support Professor X’s hypothesis? (Note: You do not need to comment on the statistical significance of the relationship you observe). b. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of Americans who support a ban on late-term abortions. Show your work and interpret your results.