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Human Population: Demographic Transition and Sustainability, Study notes of Environmental Science

University of California - DavisEnvironmental Science

An overview of human population growth, demographic transition, and sustainability. It discusses the two worlds of population growth, the outcome of growth limitation programs, and measures to limit population growth. The document also covers the cairo conference and global programs to create a stable human population. Students can find related resources and quiz questions on the website.

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Uploaded on 07/30/2009

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http://www.des.ucdavis.edu/courses/esp10/
October 3, 2007
• Announcements
– Check ppt or pdf file from each lecture along
with lecture supplemental file. Practice quiz
questions, lecture objectives, reading material
posted there.
– Example questions will start appearing on the
website. ALL exam questions will come from
this pool of questions.
•So Cal
–LA ‘Ducts
– SD Explorers
– SLO Moe’s
– Santa Barbara Green
– Ventura Squid
•Bay Area
– San Francisco Huskies
– Oakland Bombers
– Berkeley Bowlers
– San Jose Bush Babies
– Lafayette Diablos
•Pacific Rim
– Alaska Drillers
– Hawai’i Treehuggers
–Martinez Muirs
– Sac Planetiers
– Sonoma Whiners
Teams
Keeping score: SLIPS OF PAPER
Late entrants
5 great things to do this week
1. How many people were there on earth when
you were born?
¾http://www-popexpo.ined.fr/eMain.html
2. What is your ecological footprint?
¾http://www.earthday.org/footprint/index.asp
3. Have the salmon come in yet?
¾Visit Nimbus Hatchery, Hwy 50
4. Fall comes in
¾Enjoy the smell of decay and fermentation
5. Hear a lecture on a current environmental issue
1. Joel Reynolds, Tues, 5PM, Buehler Alumni Center
Human Population
October 3, 2007
pf3
pf4
pf5
pf8

Partial preview of the text

Download Human Population: Demographic Transition and Sustainability and more Study notes Environmental Science in PDF only on Docsity!

http://www.des.ucdavis.edu/courses/esp10/

October 3, 2007

  • Announcements
    • Check ppt or pdf file from each lecture along with lecture supplemental file. Practice quiz questions, lecture objectives, reading material posted there.
    • Example questions will start appearing on the website. ALL exam questions will come from this pool of questions.
  • So Cal
  • LA ‘Ducts
  • SD Explorers
  • SLO Moe’s
  • Santa Barbara Green
  • Ventura Squid
  • Bay Area
  • San Francisco Huskies
  • Oakland Bombers
  • Berkeley Bowlers
  • San Jose Bush Babies
  • Lafayette Diablos
  • Pacific Rim
  • Alaska Drillers
  • Hawai’i Treehuggers
  • Martinez Muirs
  • Sac Planetiers
  • Sonoma Whiners

Teams

Keeping score: SLIPS OF PAPER

Late entrants

5 great things to do this week

  1. How many people were there on earth when you were born? ¾ http://www-popexpo.ined.fr/eMain.html
  2. What is your ecological footprint? ¾ http://www.earthday.org/footprint/index.asp
  3. Have the salmon come in yet? ¾ Visit Nimbus Hatchery, Hwy 50
  4. Fall comes in ¾ Enjoy the smell of decay and fermentation
  5. Hear a lecture on a current environmental issue
    1. Joel Reynolds, Tues, 5PM, Buehler Alumni Center

Human Population

October 3, 2007

Today

The two worlds of population growth Demographic TransitionDemographic Transition

Accompanies Economic and Social Development

Age Structure diagram (^) Demographic transition is

happening around the world

Other bits in the news

  • Environmental degradation surrounding

refugee camps near Darfur—LA Times

  • US-Canada Border mine—MSNBC
  • Going solar
    • Japan –NPR
    • West Sacramento – Sac bee

Cairo Conference - 1994

  • A world summit on population
  • An accord was reached and signed by 179 nations: - Reduce fertility to slow population growth - Increase education, especially for women - End gender discrimination - Provide means for reproductive health and reproductive choice (contraception) - International cooperation (0.7% of GNP donation for work).

Global programs to create a

stable human population

  • Implementing the goals of the Cairo

Conference.

  • UNFPA (UN Population Fund)
  • FAO (UN Food and Agriculture)
  • UNEP (UN Environment Program)
  • NGO’s (Non-government organizations)
    • Population Institute
    • World Population Organization
    • etc

Measures to limit population

growth

  • Globally: UN incentive programs
    • Strives to provide resources to facilitate low fertility choices
    • Strongest measure possible: The UN can link assistance to participation in population programs
  • Nationally: limit immigration
    • Most of the developed world has severe limitation to immigration
    • Social controversy: should US strengthen or loosen the limits to immigration?

What

should be

the target?

Who gets to

say?

What is Human Carrying Capacity?

1650 1750 1850 1950

Billions

1000

100

10

1

From Cohen 1995

8-16 billion are the central estimates. But, there is no growing consensus. Who is right? Year prediction was made

Predictions

Leeuwenhoek, 1679

  • Estimated maximum human population to

be 13.4 billion

  • Extrapolated density of Holland, which he

presumed to be saturated, to the rest of

the world.

  • Just about dead on the median estimate

today

Note: the specific predictions are not important. The flavor of how they are made is all I am trying to get across

Should we be concerned about human

population size?

  • Quality of life
  • Sustainable human life
  • Ability to maintain global biodiversity and habitats

With respect to sustainability of the human endeavor, population growth rate and population size are only part of the picture: per capita consumption is the other

What is your ecological footprint?

Consumption: FOOD

  • Production, globally continues upward
  • Productivity per acre has stopped

increasing in US, but many regions

continue to improve

  • Fewer acres in production in US and

Europe than 100 years ago.

Meat is expensive

  • Every 16 kg of grain fed to an animal in a

feedlot produces ~ 1 kg of edible meat.

  • Eating grain directly results in 21 times

more calories and 8 times more protein

than meat consumption

Sustainability and

Resources

  • Sustainable Resource Use - using resources in ways that do not diminish them
  • Resources - anything that is useful for creating wealth or improving our lives
  • Sustainable development : “meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”*
  • Are we doing that?

Review

  • Population has reached 6.6 billion
    • The world strongly varies with respect to density, population growth and the timing of demographic transition.
  • For the purposes of this class, we will assume that population increase has to reach some stability – we can’t double forever.
  • Population control is fraught with social justice issues.
  • Many factors contribute to less than maximum reproductive rate; reproductive choice is one of these reasons
  • Demographic transition naturally happens as people shift their livelihoods from rural agriculture to urban jobs.
  • The UN now thinks population may stabilize at < 10 billion.
  • The world remains dominated by young people.

Some key related issues

  • Thomas Malthus and An Essay on the

Principle of Populations

  • Paul Ehrlich and The Population Bomb
  • Garrett Hardin and The Tragedy of the

Commons

  • Wackernagel and Rees and The

Ecological Footprint

Example Quiz questions

  • Recent trends in human population suggest that it is
    • increasing linearly
    • increasing at a rate that is increasing
    • decreasing because of an aging population structure
    • Increasing more than linearly, but decreasing in the rate that it is increasing
    • Closing in on a carrying capacity threshold
  • The total population that can be sustained by the environment of a species is called the: - Carrying capacity - Population maximum - Density ceiling - Maximum fecundity
  • True / False. Most African countries are not any where near completing the process of demographic transition in human population growth.

Learning objectives for human population segment

  • You should be able to:
    • Describe past , current and predicted future human population size.
    • Describe the geographical distribution of human populations, including the geography of wealth and education
    • Describe what limits populations and carrying capacity
    • Explain demographic transition
    • Explain population doubling time and recent trends in population doubling times
    • Understand forces driving population growth and changes in growth rates
    • Enunciate arguments for and against funding the UNFPA