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The Zodiac killer, who claimed to have killed 37 people, was never identified. The BTK killer, Dennis Rader, was successfully prosecuted after 31.
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Christopher J. Pedrini September 2018
Co-Advisors: Thomas H. Johnson Erik J. Dahl Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
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Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
IMAGINING A SHIFT TOWARD SERIAL TERRORISM
Christopher J. Pedrini Police Captain, San Francisco Police Department BS, Colorado State University, 2016
Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of
MASTER OF ARTS IN SECURITY STUDIES (HOMELAND SECURITY AND DEFENSE) from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL September 2018
Approved by: Thomas H. Johnson Co-Advisor
Erik J. Dahl Co-Advisor
Erik J. Dahl Associate Chair for Instruction, Department of National Security Affairs
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Most terrorist attacks in recent years have resulted in the quick death or capture of the suspect. This thesis examines the hypothesis that terrorism in the United States, from groups such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS, changes in tone, scope, and scale to obtain multiple attacks from each individual adherent. While historically most serial killers try to conceal their crimes, some have taunted the government and the populace with their acts and, in so doing, engendered tremendous fear in large groups of people over significant periods. This thesis examines three cases of well-known serial killer events—the Zodiac killer, BTK, and the D.C. Beltway snipers—and compares them to three recent cases of terrorism—in Boston, San Bernardino, and Orlando. It employs a comprehensive comparison of these six incidents to study the congruency, differences, discourse, patterns, and effects of each to examine the possible impacts and implications of terrorists who use tactics similar to serial killers. The output provides key takeaways pertaining to possible policy implications for the law enforcement community and its situational awareness.
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and over again.^2 The benefit of this shift for the organization—or even the “lone wolf” for that matter—lies in the individual terror suspect’s ability to attempt multiple attacks rather than just one, effectively turning Islamist terrorists into serial killers. Such serial terrorism, coupled with modern-day technology and social media, could allow the sponsoring organization or individual to create widespread fear and panic as yet unknown.
Historically, while most serial killers have tried to conceal their crimes in an effort to sustain their conduct, some have actually taunted the government and the populace with their acts—such as by writing letters to local newspapers—and in so doing, engendered tremendous fear in large groups of people over significant periods. One way that terrorist groups could be effective with fewer terrorists on the ground is by copying the methods of serial killers in an overt manner and then using technology to greatly enhance the public’s fear.
This thesis examines the hypothesis that terrorism in the United States, from well- known terrorist organizations, will begin to change in tone, scope, and scale. If these types of organizations call for more lone wolf and small group attacks, the United States will have to change its focus to prevent and respond to these new threats, specifically those posed by serial terrorism.
Methodologically, this thesis uses a systematic comparative case study method that examines three well-known serial killer cases against three recent terrorist acts. A comprehensive comparison of these six incidents allows a study of the congruency, differences, discourse, patterns, and effects of each. In turn, this analysis then provides the opportunity to develop some key takeaways as they pertain to possible policy implications. The serial killer events discussed here are those of the Zodiac killer, BTK (bind, torture, kill), and the D.C. Beltway snipers. The three terrorist events are ones that occurred in Boston, Massachusetts; San Bernardino, California; and Orlando, Florida.
This study examined how tactics might change with the use of new technology to allow individual terrorists to sustain their attacks over longer periods, thus causing an
(^2) Al-Hayat Media Center, “Just Terror Tactics,” Rumiyah , September 2016, 12.
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impact greater than that of any single lone wolf or small group attack. The output of this study demonstrates that serial killer events cause a much more substantial impact and sustained fear to a community or region over a significantly longer period than found with the examined terror cases. This finding is extremely important on its own but, given that the use of serial killer tactics requires little in the way of training or resources, suggests the probability these tactics will begin to appear in terrorist attacks.
As the study demonstrates, the longevity of serial killer attacks was found to be significant. In the Zodiac case, there was a confirmed series of murders over a multi-year period. For the BTK serial killer, the period was 31 years, from the first murder to his capture. Lastly, the Beltway snipers continued their spree for 23 days (plus 10 months). These time frames can be contrasted with the approximate 102 hours in the Boston bombing, four hours in the San Bernardino killings, and just over three hours in the Pulse Nightclub attack in Orlando.
The case studies also suggest that the delayed apprehension of perpetrators significantly favor the serial killer. The Zodiac killer, who claimed to have killed 37 people, was never identified. The BTK killer, Dennis Rader, was successfully prosecuted after 31 years and 10 confirmed murders. Malvo and Muhammad killed 10 in the Beltway attacks before they were arrested and convicted for their crimes. These apprehensions and their prosecutions took years—sometimes decades—to complete whereas, in the terrorism cases, all but one of the suspects, Boston bomber Tamerlan Tsarnaev, were killed during their apprehensions. These facts are critical.
In their most recent iterations, terrorist attacks have largely been conducted by either suicide bomb or mass casualty incidents. These forms of terrorism create a large impact in terms of the number of casualties, but typically, the attacker is often killed or captured during or shortly after the attack. This type of terrorism works well for creating fear and trauma, but it is not especially effective at keeping attackers on the battlefield to cause additional acts of terror. Over time, the use of these tactics may affect an organization’s cadres and, without replenishment, reduce its recruiting capacity through attrition, rendering it less effective in launching frequent attacks. This problem necessitates
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To my wonderful children, loved ones, family, and friends, thank you for supporting me throughout this extremely challenging academic journey. I recognize that I have been absent over the course of this program. I appreciate your patience, and I acknowledge that I could not have completed it without your selfless sacrifices, love, support, and encouragement.
To my thesis advisors, Professor Johnson and Dr. Dahl, I am grateful for your wisdom, guidance, and support throughout this lengthy thesis research and writing process. I am proud of the work we have developed and hope it makes a solid contribution to the homeland security field.
To the staff and faculty of the Naval Postgraduate School, the Center for Homeland Defense and Security, and everyone else on base, I thank you from the bottom of my heart. You put your trust and faith in me and believed that I could contribute something significant in improving the nation’s security preparedness. I am forever in your debt for allowing me this opportunity and helping me on this journey. Together we have worked hard toward advancing this prestigious academic institution’s mission of educating the homeland security professionals of tomorrow.
I want especially to thank all of my fellow members of cohort 1701/1702. It was truly an honor and pleasure to get to know each and every one of you. We all entered this program with a single thing in common, which was a dedication to helping to protect others. I am honored to call you all friends and proud to have undertaken this extremely rigorous academic adventure with you. I will greatly miss our time together.
Lastly, I want to thank the San Francisco Police Department for allowing me to embark on this opportunity and for supporting me throughout. It is rare to have such a supportive employer; it does not go unrecognized.
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