Understanding the Solow Model: Steady State Properties and Predictions, Study notes of Economics

This document, from a fall semester '05-'06 lecture by akila weerapana, explores the mathematical properties of the solow model's steady state to understand how economic changes affect endogenous variables. The impact of saving rate, depreciation rate, and population growth rate on steady state income per-capita and aggregate income.

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Pre 2010

Uploaded on 08/16/2009

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Fall Semester ’05-’06
Akila Weerapana
Lecture 6: Assessing the Basic Solow Model
I. OVERVIEW
In the last class we looked at a couple of comparative statics exercises. The first was the
impact of a change in the saving rate on capital and output in the economy. We showed that
the change in the saving rate did not have a long run impact on the growth rate of output.
However, there was a short run increase in the growth rate, and as a result the economy
reached a higher level of steady state output. A change in the saving rate is therefore said
to have a level effect on output but NOT have a growth effect; i.e. it affects the steady
state level of output but not the long run growth rate of output.
The second was the impact of a change in the population growth rate on capital and output
in the economy. We showed that the change in the population growth rate, while raising
both the level and the growth rate of total output in the economy, left the level of per-capita
output lower than it would have been in the absence of the increased population growth.
Today’s class looks at some of the mathematical properties of the steady state to understand
how economic changes affect the endogenous variables of the model.
II. COMPARING STEADY STATES USING ALGEBRA
In economics, we typically use calculus to do comparative statics exercises. Given an economic
model, we would solve for the endogenous variables as functions of the exogenous variables
and the parameters, then take derivatives (or partial derivatives) to show how the endogenous
variable will change when an exogenous variable or a parameter changes.
However, thus far with the Solow model we have used diagrams instead of calculus to perform
the various comparative statics exercises. The reason for doing so is that the Solow model
is a dynamic model whose behavior is governed by a differential equation, the now familiar
˙
k=sy (n+δ)kequation.
Since differential equations is not a pre-requisite for this course, we won’t solve this equation
for the value of kat a given point in time. We can however, avoid the complications of
the differential equation and use calculus if we restrict our focus to the steady state. Why?
Because at the steady state ˙
k= 0, thus eliminating the troublesome left-hand side of the
above equation.
The capital accumulation equation can now be written as (using * to denote steady-state
values) 0 = sy(n+δ)k. This simplifies to
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Fall Semester ’05-’ Akila Weerapana

Lecture 6: Assessing the Basic Solow Model

I. OVERVIEW

  • In the last class we looked at a couple of comparative statics exercises. The first was the impact of a change in the saving rate on capital and output in the economy. We showed that the change in the saving rate did not have a long run impact on the growth rate of output.
  • However, there was a short run increase in the growth rate, and as a result the economy reached a higher level of steady state output. A change in the saving rate is therefore said to have a level effect on output but NOT have a growth effect; i.e. it affects the steady state level of output but not the long run growth rate of output.
  • The second was the impact of a change in the population growth rate on capital and output in the economy. We showed that the change in the population growth rate, while raising both the level and the growth rate of total output in the economy, left the level of per-capita output lower than it would have been in the absence of the increased population growth.
  • Today’s class looks at some of the mathematical properties of the steady state to understand how economic changes affect the endogenous variables of the model.

II. COMPARING STEADY STATES USING ALGEBRA

  • In economics, we typically use calculus to do comparative statics exercises. Given an economic model, we would solve for the endogenous variables as functions of the exogenous variables and the parameters, then take derivatives (or partial derivatives) to show how the endogenous variable will change when an exogenous variable or a parameter changes.
  • However, thus far with the Solow model we have used diagrams instead of calculus to perform the various comparative statics exercises. The reason for doing so is that the Solow model is a dynamic model whose behavior is governed by a differential equation, the now familiar k˙ = sy − (n + δ)k equation.
  • Since differential equations is not a pre-requisite for this course, we won’t solve this equation for the value of k at a given point in time. We can however, avoid the complications of the differential equation and use calculus if we restrict our focus to the steady state. Why? Because at the steady state k˙ = 0, thus eliminating the troublesome left-hand side of the above equation.
  • The capital accumulation equation can now be written as (using * to denote steady-state values) 0 = sy∗^ − (n + δ)k∗. This simplifies to

(n + δ)k∗^ = sy∗^ ≡ sk∗α ⇒ n + δ s

= k∗α−^1

s n + δ = k∗^1 −α

⇒ k∗^ =

s n + δ

) (^1) −^1 α

  • Using the fact that y = kα^ we can then show that

y∗^ =

s n + δ

) (^1) −αα

  • From these expressions we can see that the Solow model predicts that increases in the saving rate will raise steady state income per-capita since dy

∗ ds >^0

  • The model also predicts that increases in the depreciation rate and the population growth rate will reduce steady state income per-capita, i.e. dy

∗ dn <^ 0 and^

dy∗ dδ <^0

  • In addition, using the fact that k = KL and y = YL we can show that

K t∗ = Lt

s n + δ

) (^1) −^1 α and Y (^) t∗ = Lt

s n + δ

) (^1) −αα

  • From these expressions we can see that the Solow model predicts that increases in the saving rate will raise steady state aggregate income since dY^ ∗ ds >^0
  • Similarly, increases in the depreciation rate will reduce steady state aggregate income since dY ∗ dδ <^0
  • Third, increases in the size of the population (labor force) will increase aggregate income dY ∗ dL >^0
  • Finally, an increase in the growth rate of the population will actually increase aggregate income dY^ ∗ dn >^ 0. This may seem inconsistent with the above expression given that^ n^ appears in the denominator but don’t forget that n is also part of Lt, i.e. Lt = L 0 ent. Since exponential functions grow faster than linear functions the Lt term increases faster than the

s n+δ

) (^1) −αα

term decreases, implying that dY^ ∗ dn >^0

  • We can also take a look at what the algebraic solutions say about steady-state growth. Since

the right-hand sides of the expressions k∗^ =

s n+δ

) (^1) −^1 α and y∗^ =

s n+δ

) (^1) −αα are all parameters, we can see that per-capita output and capital is constant in steady state.

  • Similarly, we can see that in steady state, K and Y are not constant, they are growing over time (hence the subscript t) because the population is growing. In other words steady state aggregate output and capital will grow at the same rate as the population.