Bayes' Theorem and Applications: K-Means Clustering and Expectation-Maximization, Study notes of Computer Science

An overview of bayes' theorem, its application in probability theory, and its connection to clustering algorithms such as k-means and expectation-maximization. The concept of prior knowledge, updating state of knowledge with data, and the calculation of posterior probabilities using bayes' rule. Additionally, it discusses the use of bayesian inference in scientific arguments and the k-means clustering algorithm, including its properties and limitations. The document also introduces the expectation-maximization algorithm as an alternative to k-means for handling more complex models and data.

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Bayes Theorem again
Bayes's Theorem begins with a statement of knowledge
prior to getting the data (called the prior)
The prior is in the form of a probability density. It can be
based on physics, on the results of other experiments, on
expert opinion, or any other source of relevant
information.
To improve this state of knowledge (hypothesis or prior
distribution), a measurement is taken (data)
Bayes's Theorem is the mechanism used to update the
state of knowledge to provide a posterior distribution.
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Bayes Theorem again•^

Bayes's Theorem begins with a statement of knowledgeprior to getting the data (called the

prior)

-^

The prior is in the form of a probability density. It can bebased on physics, on the results of other experiments, onexpert opinion, or any other source of relevantinformation.

-^

To improve this state of knowledge (hypothesis or priordistribution), a measurement is taken (data)

-^

Bayes's Theorem is the mechanism used to update thestate of knowledge to provide a

posterior

distribution.

-^

Both the prior and the measurement have a jointdistribution

-^

Let the measurement be A and the prior be B.

-^

Since both have occurred, the event AB has taken place.

-^

The probability of both A and B happening together isP(AB).

-^

This probability can be found as the product of theconditional probability of one, given the other, times theprobability of the other.

-^

P(A|B) ´ P(B) =

P(AB)

= P(B|A) ´ P(A)

(assuming both P(A) and P(B) are non zero)

Bayesian inference•^

Bayes’ rule:

-^

What makes a good scientific argument?

-^

P

( H

| D

) is high if:

  • Hypothesis is plausible:

P

( H

) is high

  • Hypothesis strongly predicts the observed data:

P

( D

| H

) is high

  • Data are surprising:

P

( D

) is low

) (

) | ( ) ( ) |

(^

D P

H D P H P D H P

=

K-means clustering•^

Brute force difficult because many spheres, many pixels.

-^

Assume all spheres same radius; just need sphere centers.

-^

Iterative method.– If we knew centers, it would be easy to assign pixels to clusters.– If we knew which pixels in each cluster, it would be easy to find

centers.

  • So guess centers, assign pixels to clusters, pick centers for

clusters, assign pixels to clusters, ….

simple example.Suppose we want to cluster black and whiteintensities, and we have the intensities: 1 3 8 11.start with centers c1 = 7 and c2=10.assign 1, 3, 8 to c1, 11 to c2.update c1 = (1+3+8)/3 = 4, c2 = 11.assign 1,3 to c1 and 8 and 11 to c2.update c1 = 2, c2 = 9 ½.converged.No assignments change, so the centers don’tchange.

K-means Properties•^

Think of this as trying to find the optimal solution to:–

Given points p1… pn, find centers c1…ck

-^

and find mapping f:{p1…pn}->{c1…ck} that minimizes

C = (p1-f(p1))^2 + …+ (pn-f(pn))^2.

-^

Every step reduces C.– The mean is the pt that minimizes sum of squared distance to a

set of points. So changing the center to be the mean reduces thisdistance.

  • When we reassign a point to a closer center, we reduce its

distance to its cluster center.

-^

Convergence: since there are only a finite set of possibleassignments.

E-M (Expectation maximization)•^

Like K-means but withsoft assignment.– Assign point partly to all

clusters based onprobability it belongs toeach.

  • Compute weighted

averages (c

) and variancej

(σ).

− −

− −

j

c c p p

i

j^

j j i i

e

e

p

f

2 (^22) 2

σ σ

Cluster centers are c

.j

Example•^

Matlab: tutorial

-^

Fuzzy assignment allows cluster to creep towards nearbypoints and capture them.

E-M•^

Reading:– Forsyth & Ponce 16.1, 16.2– Forsyth & Ponce 16.3– Yair Weiss:

Motion Segmentation using EM – a short tutorial.

(^1

st^

2 pages.)

Parametric Methods•^

We discussed Ransac, Hough Transform.

-^

The have some limitations– Object must have few parameters.– Finds an answer, but is it the best answer?– Hard to say because problem definition a bit vague.

E-M Definitions•^

Models have parameters: u–

Examples: line has slope/intercept; Gaussian has mean and variance.

-^

Data is what we know from image: y–

Examples: Points we want to fit a line to.

-^

Assignment of data to models: z–

Eg., which points came from line 1.– z(i,j) = 1 means data i came from model j.

-^

Data and assignments (y & z): x.

E-M Definitions•^

Missing Data: We know y. Missing values are u and z.

-^

Mixture model: The data is a mixture of more than onemodel.

Example: Histograms•^

Histogram gives 1D clustering problem.

-^

Constant regions + noise = Gaussians.

-^

Guess mean and variance of pixel intensities.

-^

Compute membership for each pixel.

-^

Compute means as weighted average.

-^

Compute variance as weighted sample variance.

-^

Details:

whiteboard;

Also, Matlab and Weiss.

More subtle points•^

Guess must be reasonable, or we won’t converge toanything reasonable.– Seems good to start with high variance.

-^

How do we stop.– When things don’t change much.– Could look at parameters (u).– Or likelihood of data.