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LIS6700 Final Study Guide Exam With
Complete Solutions
(T/F) Analysis is the process of structuring or discerning meaning from data - ANSWER True Data - ANSWER symbols with no inherent meaning Information - ANSWER data that have been given meaning Knowledge - ANSWER application of data and information Wisdom - ANSWER evaluated understanding A ________________ is a statement of the conditions under which a person knows that something is the case - ANSWER theory of knowedge The following describes the conditions for which type of knowledge: A person knows that X is the case if and only if: -The person believes X is true -X is true -The person is justified in believing that X is true - ANSWER Propositional or descriptive knowledge (T/F): Empiricists say that our beliefs can be best justified in light of reason and rational evidence - ANSWER False Both information analysis and _____________________ involve aggregating and disaggregating data and information, and interpreting it to discern -or at least develop hypotheses about- future trends, patterns, risks, and opportunities. - ANSWER Intelligence analysis Classically, ________________ means to break up a whole into its parts, to examine in detail so as to determine the nature, elements, or essential features of, to look more deeply into an issue or situation - ANSWER Analyze Peter Pirolli envisions the process of analysis as an opportunistic mix of two major loops of activities: (1) a ______________ loop and (2) a _____________ loop
- ANSWER foraging, sensemaking
The fist task is inference in developing theories based on the raw data, which involves both generating and evaluation hypotheses. The analyst's cognitive mode in this stage of inference should be primarily ________________ - ANSWER paradigmatic Which property or credential of evidence answers the "so what" question? - ANSWER relevance Thinking in the ____________ mode involves constructing a good story with the goal of establishing the plausibility of the conclusions. - ANSWER narrative Ends - ANSWER Objectives Ways - ANSWER Approaches Means - ANSWER Resources A strategist should select objectives should select objectives based on ________________, which are the reasons for pursuing the objective - ANSWER Interests The theory of strategy offers guidance on "___________ to think" about strategy, not "what to think" for a strategy - ANSWER How In complex environments, where there are very few simple cause-effect relationships, effects might best be viewed as __________________ - ANSWER nonlinear The US Army Way College says there are four prominent features of the global environment: ____________, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity - ANSWER volatility What term is often used in the study of strategy to refer to the difference between the ideal strategy and the applied strategy- how a plan is supposed to work versus how it actually unfolds in execution - ANSWER friction Strategists must avoid ____________ - the idea that one strategic concept fits all situations - ANSWER strategic monism In dealing with unknowns and uncertainties, the strategist seeks to understand the systems of the strategic environment and to discern the most significant _________________ that shape it and sustain its equilibrium - ANSWER forces of factors What term describes a process of moving away from back-white, either-or categorizations and toward a more nuanced depiction of reality that views
(T/F) More information always leads to more accurate forecasts - ANSWER false According to Richard Paul and Linda Elder, the mode of thinking -about any subject, content, or problem- in which the solitary thinker improves the quality of his or her thinking by skillfully taking charge of the structures inherent in thinking and imposing intellectual standards upon them - ANSWER critical thinking Which of the following is NOT one of Paul and Elder's eight elements of thought/reasoning? - ANSWER Confirmation The strength of inferences based on evidence depends on _______________, relevance (does the evidence bear on the issue), and inferential or probative force (how compelling is it in answering the questions raised by the issue) - ANSWER credibility Daniel Kahneman draws some clear distinctions between "associations" and "inferences". He argues that order and sequence are crucial to which one? - ANSWER inferences According to Kahneman, expert intuition resides in____________ - ANSWER System 1 MLR Smith uses what term to refer to a framework that advances a set of propositions that, if true, can be held to explain certain facts or phenomena?
- ANSWER theory The term strategy denotes the endeavor to relate __________ to _________ - ANSWER ends, means What is the field of inquiry that is interested in describing the choices available to an actor and evaluating the quality of decision making? - ANSWER strategic theory analysis What is it that strategic theorists wish to understand in their examination of strategic actors? - ANSWER their value system and what motivates them what is regarded as the crucial determinant of the information that is available to an actor and the structure within which actors think they know for sure, what they have to infer, if possible, from the behavior of others? - ANSWER strategic environment (T/F) According to Schelling, ability of one participant to gain his ends is dependent to an important degree on the choices or decisions the other participant (or participants) will make - ANSWER True
Strategic theory is ____________ in the moral validity of the means and ends of any actor. - ANSWER intellectually disinterested (T/F) Thomas Schelling regarded strategic theory as being properly and exclusively focused on the study of military power and war, - ANSWER False According to Colin Gray, the key to strategy and to thinking strategically lies in what question? - ANSWER so what? When companies compete on different attributes of the same product or service to meet the needs of different customers, Michael Porter refers to this as: - ANSWER positive sum competition In Urbany and Davi's Venn diagram of the customer, company, and competition, they highlight an area that represents the value one's own organization creates that matters to the customer, but that is different than the value provided by the competition. By what name do they refer to that place in the diagram? - ANSWER area a -Less than 100 pages and written in the form of brief notes -is concerned primarily with the conduct of war on the highest strategic level, rather than the lower strategic/operational levels - ANSWER Sun Tzu's The Art of War -focuses, for the reader, on the process of learning and asking questions, rather than on conclusions -does not put much faith in the value of deception operations and diversions
- ANSWER Clausewitz"s On War (T/F) According to Handel, Sun Tzu and Clausewitz would probably agree on the fundamental methodological assumption that war is an art, not a science. - ANSWER True Thurcycides views political life as an endless striving for _____________ and dominion - ANSWER power Which of the following would Thurcydides see as an integral part of "grand strategy"? - ANSWER all three: pride and reputation, economic necessity, and geostrategy (T/F) Sun Tzu advocated strenuously for avoiding war, trying diplomacy and all non-violent solutions first, and only permitting war to be used as a last resort - ANSWER true
a judgement is made with an initial value in mind and is adjusted according to new information, but such adjustments are often too small, so the judgment is overweighted toward the initial value - ANSWER anchoring ___________ __________ addresses how "rational" competitors seek to achieve outcomes reflecting their preferences or utilities - ANSWER game theory (T/F) Decision science is coming to appreciate instead of seeking to "predict" effects on a system of various alternatives and then "optimizing" choice, it may be far better to recognize that meaningful prediction is often just not in the cards and that we should instead be seeking strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust. - ANSWER True Consistent with the lessons learned from CAS theory, because of nonlinearities and sensitivities, models should support _____________ - ANSWER exploratory analysis Flexibility and robustness are key features of planning for ____________ - ANSWER adaptiveness Thinking about how we think is called _____________ - ANSWER metacognition (T/F) According to current research, our brains are like a large storage unit for digital recordings of our daily experiences - ANSWER false The "Modal Model" of mind describes a three-stage process of perception comprising the following three function for our sensory inputs: - ANSWER selecting, organizing, and interpreting -fast -forms conclusion through associations - ANSWER system 1 -less efficient under high arousal -handles "out of the ordinary" cases very well - ANSWER system 2 According to the Miniature Guide to Critical Thinking Concepts and Tools, critical thinking is the art of _______ and _______ thinking with a view to improving it - ANSWER analyzing and evaluating In de Bono's Six Thinking Hats model, which type of thinking focuses on data, facts, information known or needed? - ANSWER white hat Which of the following is NOT one of their eight Elements of Thought outlined in your reading? - ANSWER criticality
According to Philip Tetlock, there are two fundamental ways to assess the accuracy of subjective probabilities. One is measured as the ability to assign subjective probabilities to outcomes that correspond to their objective probabilities. For example, when you say there is a 70% chance of something happening, the things that you are saying that 70% likelihood to occur about 70% of the time. This is an example of ____________ - ANSWER calibration According to Philip Tetlock, there are two fundamental ways to assess the accuracy of subjective probabilities. One is measured as ability to assign sharply higher probabilities to things that happen than to things that don't happen. This is referred to as _______________ - ANSWER discrimination What would be a metaphorical way to characterize the expert or professional thinker who related everything to a single central vision or set of ideas in terms of which all that they say has significance? - ANSWER hedgehog It is generally agreed that the concept of risk has two dimensions: __________ addresses how likely the risk event or condition is to occur (the uncertainty dimension), and _____________ details the extent of what would happen if the risk materializes (the risk dimension) - ANSWER probability and impact (T/F) Probability exists on a spectrum from impossibility to certainty - ANSWER True A basic premise of complexity theory is that there is a(n) _______________ to the behavior and evolution of complex systems - ANSWER hidden order a unit in which many independent agents interact with each other in multiple ways is defined as a(n): - ANSWER complex system If industries behave as chaotic systems, what implications might that have for strategy development: - ANSWER long-term planning is very difficult a basic premise of chaos theory is that small changes in initial conditions can lead to vast changes in the final outcome- as a metaphor, this is sometimes referred to as the __________ effect - ANSWER butterfly What term is used to describe the process by which simple parts within a system can self-organize to create come novel and unique property as a whole? - ANSWER emergence Christensen, Carlile, and Sundahl describe the process of theory building as being iterative and flowing through a series of stages. In the earliest stages of theory building, the best that researchers can do is to observe phenomena, and to carefully __________________ - ANSWER describe, measure, and record what they see
The "lady tasting tea" experiment was prompted by a woman who claimed to be able to tell whether the tea or milk was added first to a cup. To test the woman's claim, the researcher gave her eight cups, four of each variety, in random order. What was the result? - ANSWER The woman identified all eight cups correctly as the fundamental components of any mulitcriteria decision problem, _____________ reflect the values of a decision-maker and are means by which alternatives can be discriminated. ___________ are courses of action which alternatives can be pursued and which will have outcomes measured in terms of the criteria. - ANSWER Criteria, alternatives The process of first specifying alternatives in the problem structuring process, and then applying value and preference information to them in order to make a choice, is commonly referred to as ________________, but he process of thinking whereby criteria are identified first in the decision-making process, then alternatives are creatively determined in light of such criteria and choice is then made is known as _______________ - ANSWER alternative- focused thinking; value-focused thinking Issue Processes - ANSWER Direction comes from a particular concern or difficulty suggested by the decisionmaker Idea processes - ANSWER Direction comes from an initial solution. objective-directed processes - ANSWER direction comes from setting initial goals or aims reframing processes - ANSWER focuses on solutions, problems, or new norms or practices in order to justify the need to act Red-Team Analysis - ANSWER Models the behavior of an individual or group by trying to replicate how an adversary would think about an issue Alternative Futures Analysis - ANSWER systematically explores multiple ways a situation can develop when there is high complexity and uncertainty Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) - ANSWER identification of alternative explanations and evaluation of all evidence that will disconfirm rather than confirm the hypothesis devil's advocacy - ANSWER Challenging a single, strongly held view or consensus by building the best possible case for an alternative explanation. key assumptions check - ANSWER list and review key working assumptions on which fundamental judgments rest.
Which of the following is NOT a characteristic of an effective scenario: - ANSWER not challenging or altering a prevailing view of reality In the IDEAL model for problem solving, what does the "E" represent? - ANSWER Explore possible strategies When defining a problem, the Cartesian Quadrants can be helpful. Those include the following questions/answers: What is the problem? We have _________ because... and; We do not have ____________ because... - ANSWER problem; a solution According to Morgan Jones, in decision making...multiplying the utility of an outcome by its probability of occurring to derive a(n): - ANSWER Expected Value
