Lognormal distribution, Lecture notes of Probability and Statistics

This file contains Lecture notes and examples

Typology: Lecture notes

2019/2020

Uploaded on 04/02/2020

tilottama-barhate
tilottama-barhate 🇮🇳

1 document

1 / 3

Toggle sidebar

This page cannot be seen from the preview

Don't miss anything!

bg1
Lognormal Distribution:
A lognormal (log-normal or Galton) distribution is a probability distribution with a normally
distributed logarithm. A random variable is lognormally distributed if its logarithm is normally
distributed.
Skewed distributions with low mean values, large variance, and all-positive values often fit this
type of distribution. Values must be positive as log(x) exists only for positive values of x.
If log(X) has a normal distribution with mean μ and standard deviation σ , we say that X has
lognormal distribution with parameter μ and σ .
The mean m and variance v of a lognormal random variable are functions of µ and σ are:
m=e(μ 2/2)
,
v=e(2μ+ σ2)(e 2)1)
A lognormal distribution with mean m and variance v has parameters
μ=log(m2
v+m2),σ=
log(v
m2+1)
The probability density function is defined by the mean μ and standard deviation, σ:
The shape of the lognormal distribution is defined by three parameters:
σ, the shape parameter. Also the standard deviation for the lognormal, this affects the general
shape of the distribution. Usually, these parameters are known from historical data.
Sometimes, you might be able to estimate it with current data. The shape parameter doesn’t
change the location or height of the graph; it just affects the overall shape.
m, the scale parameter (this is also the median). This parameter shrinks or stretches the
graph.
μ, the location parameter, which tells you where on the x-axis the graph is located.
The standard lognormal distribution has a location parameter of 0 and a scale parameter of 1
(shown in blue in the image below). If μ = 0, the distribution is called a 2-parameter lognormal
distribution.
pf3

Partial preview of the text

Download Lognormal distribution and more Lecture notes Probability and Statistics in PDF only on Docsity!

Lognormal Distribution:

A lognormal (log-normal or Galton) distribution is a probability distribution with a normally distributed logarithm. A random variable is lognormally distributed if its logarithm is normally distributed. Skewed distributions with low mean values, large variance, and all-positive values often fit this type of distribution. Values must be positive as log(x) exists only for positive values of x. If log(X) has a normal distribution with mean μ and standard deviation σ , we say that X has lognormal distribution with parameter μ and σ. The mean m and variance v of a lognormal random variable are functions of μ and σ are:

m = e

( μ +σ 2 / 2 ) (^) ,

v = e

( 2 μ + σ^2 )

( e

(σ 2 )

A lognormal distribution with mean m and variance v has parameters μ =log( m 2 √ v +^ m 2 ) , σ=

log( v m 2

  • 1

The probability density function is defined by the mean μ and standard deviation, σ: The shape of the lognormal distribution is defined by three parameters:

  • σ, the shape parameter. Also the standard deviation for the lognormal, this affects the general shape of the distribution. Usually, these parameters are known from historical data. Sometimes, you might be able to estimate it with current data. The shape parameter doesn’t change the location or height of the graph; it just affects the overall shape.
  • m, the scale parameter (this is also the median). This parameter shrinks or stretches the graph.
  • μ, the location parameter, which tells you where on the x-axis the graph is located. The standard lognormal distribution has a location parameter of 0 and a scale parameter of 1 (shown in blue in the image below). If μ = 0, the distribution is called a 2-parameter lognormal distribution.

Applications: The most commonly used (and the most familiar) distribution in science is the normal distribution. The familiar “bell curve” models many natural phenomenon, from the simple (weights or heights) to the more complex. For example, the following phenomenon can all be modeled with a lognormal distribution:

  • Milk production by cows.
  • Lives of industrial units with failure modes that are characterized by fatigue-stress.
  • Amounts of rainfall.
  • Size distributions of rainfall droplets.
  • The volume of gas in a petroleum reserve. Many more phenomenon can be modeled with the lognormal distribution, such as the length of latent periods of infectious disease or species abundance. Practice problems: Exercise 1 Let X be a normal random variable with mean 6.5 and standard deviation 0.8. Consider the random variable Y = e X . what is the probability P ( 800 ⩽ 1000 )? Exercise 2 Let Y follows a lognormal distribution with parameters μ= 4 and σ=0.9. Compute the mean, standard deviation. Exercise 3 Suppose that a random variable Y follows a lognormal distribution with μ= 5 and σ=0. . Determine the probability P ( Y > 150 ).