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Machine Learning - Thinking Like Computers - Lecture Slides, Slides of Artificial Intelligence

Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya Artificial Intelligence

During the course work of Thinking Like Computers, we study the key concept of artificial intelligence. The main points in these lecture slides are:Machine Learning, Observed Actions, Decision Tree, Classifiers, Different Predictions, Ockham’s Razor, Naïve Bayesian, Some Potential Problems, Overfitting, Redundant Attributes, Theory on Information Gain

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2012/2013

Uploaded on 04/24/2013

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CSCI 100

Think Like Computers

Lecture 10

Fall 2008

Homework 2

•1. Draw your own risk curve (i.e. Utility-EMV curve) to

determine your risk profile. Once you have your curve,

go to www.masslottery.com and study the 5 lottery

games (MegaMillions, CashWindfall, Megabucks,

MassCash, Numbers5) or any other lottery games and

verify that your risk profile correctly reflects your

willingness to play in each game.

Homework 2

•2. More on Jackpot. Answer these questi ons based on

things we learned in this class.

Explain why more people are buy tickets when the

jackpot becomes bigger.

The jackpot has grown to $300 million. The chance of

winning the jackpot is 1/150 million. Should you play?

Why or why not.

When the jackpot is $300 million, should Bill Gates

play this game by buying all number combinations?

Will you participate in group buying? Say 100 people

each pay $1 and share the winning?

Homework 2

•3. You are considering joining a poker game, but you

suspect there may be cheating going on. In fact, you

estimate that there is a 70% chance that the other

players are cheating. You are a good player, so you can

expect to win $300 if the other players are not cheating.

However, if the other players are cheating, you will lose

$100.

•(a) Should you join the game?

•(b) Now suppose that someone you trust offers to tell

you whether there is cheating going on or not. How

much would you be willing to pay for this information?

Homework 2

•4. You are shopping for a home mortgage.

There are 4 banks (A,B,C,D) that you could go to, each will offer

you a deal, but you have to make a decision on the spot. (No

regrets.) Given any 2 offers, you can tell which one is better, but

you don’t know more than that.

Once you accept a deal, you’re bound to it (so no need to look

further).

Furthermore, you have to accept one offer (i.e. if you’ve rejected

all first three offers, then you have to accept the last one,

regardless its quality).

•Decide your best shopping strategy. Draw a decision

tree that reflects your strategy, and calculate the

chances that you’ll end up with the best quality offer, 2nd

best, 2nd worst, and worst offer.

Machine Learning

•It’s hard to come up with good strategies.

And it takes a lot of effort to encode/program

them.

•Let machines learn!

From us … by themselves … or a mix

•Example: NPC strategies

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CSCI 100

Think Like Computers

Lecture 10

Fall 2008

Homework 2

1. Draw your own risk curve (i.e. Utility-EMV curve) to determine your risk profile. Once you have your curve, go to www.masslottery.com and study the 5 lottery games (MegaMillions, CashWindfall, Megabucks, MassCash, Numbers5) or any other lottery games and verify that your risk profile correctly reflects your willingness to play in each game.

Homework 2

1. More on Jackpot. Answer these questions based on things we learned in this class. Explain why more people are buy tickets when the jackpot becomes bigger. The jackpot has grown to $300 million. The chance of winning the jackpot is 1/150 million. Should you play? Why or why not. When the jackpot is $300 million, should Bill Gates play this game by buying all number combinations? Will you participate in group buying? Say 100 people each pay $1 and share the winning?

Homework 2

1. You are considering joining a poker game, but you suspect there may be cheating going on. In fact, you estimate that there is a 70% chance that the other players are cheating. You are a good player, so you can expect to win $300 if the other players are not cheating. However, if the other players are cheating, you will lose $100.
(a) Should you join the game?
(b) Now suppose that someone you trust offers to tell you whether there is cheating going on or not. How much would you be willing to pay for this information?

Homework 2

1. You are shopping for a home mortgage. There are 4 banks (A,B,C,D) that you could go to, each will offer you a deal, but you have to make a decision on the spot. (No regrets.) Given any 2 offers, you can tell which one is better, but you don’t know more than that. Once you accept a deal, you’re bound to it (so no need to look further). Furthermore, you have to accept one offer (i.e. if you’ve rejected all first three offers, then you have to accept the last one, regardless its quality).
Decide your best shopping strategy. Draw a decision tree that reflects your strategy, and calculate the chances that you’ll end up with the best quality offer, 2nd best, 2nd^ worst, and worst offer.