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Measuring Employment
Outcomes for Graduates
How successful are students at fnding quality jobs and stable employment
after graduation? Minnesota is part of a new initiative that is helping to
answer those questions.
W
ith rising tuition costs, it is more important than ever to think through post-secondary education choices, such as which school to attend and what feld of study to pursue. Unfortunately, outside of population statistics and anecdotes, not much information is available about the job outcomes for graduates. How quickly do they fnd work? Do they remain in Minnesota? How much do jobs pay after graduation and how stable is employment in their felds of study?
To get a better understanding of those questions, this article looks at data from the Workforce Data Quality Initiative (WDQI), which combines education and workforce statistics into a comprehensive system for research and analysis. Among the goals of the initiative is to follow students through school into the workforce and to provide statistics on their employment outcomes. Minnesota is among 29 states participating in the
initiative, which is funded by the U.S. Department of Labor. While historical results cannot predict future outcomes for students, they can help set realistic expectations about employability and wages after graduation.
Data for Smarter Choices
When choosing where to go for college or other post-secondary study, students should take into account not only personal interests and aptitudes, but also labor market outcomes for recent graduates.
What criteria should be used to compare programs? Wages after graduation certainly are important but provide only part of the picture. Other factors also should be considered, including the following:
Employability: How many students found jobs in the state after completing a post- secondary training program?
Wages: What hourly pay can a graduate expect 12 months after graduation?
Wage growth trends: While wages can be volatile the frst year after graduation, the trend gives a better picture of long- term earning potential.
Year-round employment: What share of graduates was employed without interruption during the second year after graduation? Programs that produce many workers in sectors with high seasonal unemployment, such as manufacturing and construction, have low year-round employment shares. Continuous work histories, not necessarily with the same employer, tend to translate into higher long-term earnings.
Full-time employment: What share of graduates was employed full time during the entire second year after graduation?
Table 1 ofers a snapshot of employment outcomes for 2011 graduates broken down by degree level.
Results show that 67 percent of graduates found jobs in Minnesota 12 months after completing their degrees. Tis fgure underestimates actual employment because of a few data gaps. Although about 95 percent of Minnesota businesses report wages, graduates employed at federal agencies, self-employed or employed in other states are not found in payroll records. For example, graduate-level programs have fewer matches because their graduates are more likely to seek employment nationally, and programs in felds where self-employment is prevalent — such as construction or agriculture — tend to have fewer matches as well.
TABLE 1
Employment and Wage Outcomes of 2011 Program Completers by Award Level
Total Graduates With Valid SSNs*
Percent Employed 12 Months After Graduation**
Median Hourly Wage 12 Months After Graduation
Increase in Median Hourly Wage From 12 to 24 Months
**Second Year Full-Time Employment*****
Second Year Full-Time Median Wage
All Awards 74,238 67% $ 16.49 + $1.87 42% $41,
Awards of Less Than
2 Years 9,674 72% $ 14.02 + $1.38 33% $33,
Awards From 2 to
Less Than 4 Years 21,923 63% $14.62 + $1.38 43% $36,
Bachelor’s 29,274 63% $16.14 + $2.34 40% $40,
Graduate 12,399 62% $30.13 + $2.26 56% $64,
* Graduates without a valid Social Security number cannot be matched to wage records. Graduates who earned more than one degree in the
same academic year were classifed according to the highest degree obtained.
**Employed in Minnesota by employers who pay Minnesota unemployment insurance.
*** Percent of graduates who worked each quarter of the year for at least 1,820 hours, representing an average of 35 hours a week for a
full year.
Sources: Minnesota unemployment insurance wage records and Minnesota Ofce of Higher Education post-secondary graduation records. Data on each individual completing a degree from July 2010 through June 2012 were linked with wage records from all employers subject to unemployment insurance taxes in Minnesota.
Annual Earnings ($)
training programs. Figure 1 shows the top sub-baccalaureate programs by number of graduates in the 2011 academic year.
Tese short-term programs, mostly certifcates, have a high employment rate because they prepare people for work in specifc occupations.^2 Tey are strategically important for Minnesota’s economy and represent a good alternative to two- or four-year college degrees. Tey difer in some important respects, however.
Cosmetology graduates are predominately employed
About the Workforce Data Quality Initiative
Tis work is being funded by a grant that DEED received
from the U.S. Department of Labor’s Employment and
Training Administration. See more details at www.doleta.
gov/performance/workforcedatagrant09.cfm.
FIGURE 2
Second-Year Employment Outcomes for Largest Programs From Two to Less Than Four Years, Class of 2011 100% $100, 90% part time, and the 14 percent working full time earned an annual wage of only $23, a year after graduation. On the other hand, graduates in precision metal working were more likely to work full time and had considerably higher full-time earnings at $39,246. Tese programs prepare people for high-demand careers such as welding and machining, primarily in advanced manufacturing where wages tend to be higher than service industries.
Outcomes for the most popular associate degree programs are displayed in Figure 2.
Liberal arts represents an interesting case. Although only 23 percent of graduates worked
Percent Employed in Minnesota
80%
10% 0%
$34,
$52,
$35,107 $38,601^ $35,452 (^) $33,
Liberal Arts Registered Criminal Business Practical and Accounting^ $ Nursing, Justice Administration, Vocational Nursing and Management Nursing and Administration Corrections and Operations Nursing Assistants
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20%
Employed Any Time the Second Year After Graduation Employed FT the Whole Second Year After Graduation Second-Year FT Median Wages
Sources: Minnesota unemployment insurance wage records and Minnesota O˜ce of Higher Education post-secondary graduation records.
I :
full time the second year after graduation, their wages were close to the state median of $37,606, suggesting that people with general skills are well rewarded when they fnd full- time employment, although it might take them longer to get a job. Full-time employment in occupational/technical felds is higher than liberal arts, although rarely rising above 50 percent. As expected, the best outcomes in terms of both employability and earnings are in registered nursing programs, thanks to growth in the health care industry.
FIGURE 3
Bachelor’s degree graduates are more likely to work full time for the whole year, as illustrated in Figure 3.
Biology, despite being in a science feld, appears to be saturated, with a mediocre employment rate of 60 percent and predominately part-time employment. In general, employment in a science feld might require an advanced degree beyond a bachelor’s.
Again, registered nursing boasts some of the strongest outcomes,
Second-Year Employment Outcomes for Largest Programs Bachelor’s Degree, Class of 2011 90% $100,
80% 70%
30% 20% 10%
0%
$41, $32,538 (^) $29,233 $33,
$64,
$45, $34,818 Annual Earnings ($)
with a second-year employment rate of 80 percent and second- year full-time earnings of $64,763. Accounting and related services is worth noticing as the program with the strongest share of full-time year-round employment (68 percent), indicating an abundance of job opportunities for graduates. When a program prepares a high number of students for so many quality jobs close to the time of graduation, we can assume that the job market for these skills is strong and growing.
Evaluating Program
Success
Tere is a strong relationship between major and employment outcomes. In fact, the analysis shows that the same felds of study fared well at all three
Percent Employed in Minnesota
60% degree levels: nursing, business administration and accounting. By and large, successful outcomes are driven by high- demand career concentrations within these broad felds, such as
50% 40%
registered nursing and fnancial management, and by growth in the industries that employ these $- graduates. Business Psychology Teacher Biology Registered Accounting Communication Administration, Education Nursing, and Related and Media Management Professional Nursing (Auditing, Studies Also, some programs, such and Operations Development Administration Finance) (^) as teacher education and criminal justice and corrections, Employed Any Time the Second Year After Graduation Employed FT the Whole Second Year After Graduation Second-Year FT Median Wages
are tailored to public sector employment, while others such as business administration are mostly tailored to the private
Sources: Minnesota unemployment insurance wage records and Minnesota O˜ce of Higher Education post-secondary graduation records
