Multiple Linear Regression, Lecture notes of Statistics

Concepts of Multiple Linear Regression.

Typology: Lecture notes

2024/2025

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Regression Analysis
Multiple Linear Regression
Nicoleta Serban, Ph.D.
Professor
Fundamentals, Objectives and Examples
School of Industrial and Systems Engineering
About This Lesson
Learning Objectives:
Examine multiple regression
analysis with examples
Explore the fundamentals and
objectives of multiple regression
analysis
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Regression Analysis

Multiple Linear Regression

Nicoleta Serban, Ph.D.

Professor

Fundamentals, Objectives and Examples

School of Industrial and Systems Engineering

About This Lesson

Learning Objectives:

  • Examine multiple regression analysis with examples
  • Explore the fundamentals and objectives of multiple regression analysis

The model parameters are: !!, !", … , !#, σ^2

  • Unknown regardless how much data are observed
  • Estimated given the model assumptions
  • Estimated based on data

Multiple Linear Regression: Model

Data : !!,!, … , !!,# , $! , … , !$,!, … , !$,# , $$ Model : $% = && + &!!%,! + &'!%,' + ⋯ + &#!%,# + )%, * = 1 , … , , Assumptions :

  • Linearity / Mean Zero Assumption : E()%) = 0
  • Constant Variance Assumption : Var()%) = σ^2
  • Independence Assumption : {)! ,…, )$} are independent random variables
  • )% ~ Normally distributed for confidence/prediction intervals, hypothesis testing Model in Matrix Form : Y = 9 : + ; Design Matrix 9 =

Response Y=

Error ; =

Coefficients : =

Multiple Linear Regression: Model (cont’d)

Data : !!,!, … , !!,# , $! , … , !$,!, … , !$,# , $$ Model : $% = && + &!!%,! + &'!%,' + ⋯ + &#!%,# + )%, * = 1 , … , ,

1 st^ Order Interaction Model: & = ($ + (%% + (&& + ('%& + + Model with Interactions: Response Surface 2 nd^ Order Interaction Model: & = ($ + (%% + (&& + ('%& + ((%^ &^ + ()&^ &^ + + Simple Linear Regression : Linear regression with one quantitative predicting variable ANOVA : Linear regression with one or more qualitative predicting variables Multiple Linear Regression : Multiple quantitative and qualitative predicting variables

Quantitative and Qualitative Variables

Multiple Linear Regression : Multiple quantitative/qualitative predicting variables x 1 quantitative x 2 qualitative with three levels: D 1 , D 2 , and D 3 dummy variables Model: > = :( + :)?) + :@) + :+@ + ; Intercept varies

If d 1 =0, d 2 =0: :( + :)?)
If d 1 =1, d 2 =0: (:(+:*) + :)?) Parallel regression lines
If d 1 =0, d 2 =1: (:(+:+) + :)?)

If x 1 x 2 interaction: Nonparallel regression lines

Quantitative and Qualitative Variables

Linear Regression: Example 1

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The response variable is: Y = State average SAT score (verbal and quantitative combined) The predicting variables are: X 1 = % of total eligible high school seniors in the state who took the exam X 2 = Median income of families of test takers, in hundreds of dollars X 3 = Average number of years that test takers had in social sciences, natural sciences, and humanities X 4 = % of test takers who attended public schools X 5 = State expenditure on secondary schools, in hundreds of dollars per student X 6 = Median percentile of ranking of test takers within their secondary school classes

Linear Regression: Data Example 2

Linear Regression: Example 3

Bike sharing systems are of great interest due to their important role in traffic management. Dataset: Historical data for years 2011 - 2012 for the bike sharing system in Washington D.C.

  • Data source: UCI Machine Learning Repository
  • Data Size: 17380 observations with 17 attributes

The response variable is: Y = Hourly count rentals of bikes Qualitative predicting variables: X 1 = Day of the week X 2 = Month of the year X 3 = Hour of the day (ranging 0-23) X 4 = Year (2011, 2012) X 5 = Holiday Indicator X 6 = Weather condition (with four levels from good weather for level 1 to severe condition for level 4) Quantitative predicting variables: X 7 = Normalized temperature X 8 = Normalized humidity X 9 = Wind speed

Linear Regression: Example 3

Year: A quantitative or a qualitative predicting variable?

  • If observations are made over many years, then consider it to be quantitative
  • If observations are made over only a few years, then consider it to be qualitative

Linear Regression: Example 3

Qualitative predicting variables: X 1 = Day of the week X 2 = Month of the year X 3 = Hour of the day (ranging 0-23) X 4 = Year (2011, 2012) X 5 = Holiday Indicator X 6 = Weather condition (with four levels from good weather for level 1 to severe condition for level 4) Quantitative predicting variables: X 7 = Normalized temperature X 8 = Normalized humidity X 9 = Wind speed