Statistical Theory I: Conditional Distributions & Independence in Lecture 18, Study notes of Biostatistics

A lecture note from a statistics course (bst 631: statistical theory i) taught by kui zhang on october 30, 2007. The lecture covers the concepts of conditional probability mass functions (pmf) and conditional expected values, as well as theorems for determining independence of random variables. The document also includes examples of calculating conditional pmfs and the moment generating function of the sum of two independent random variables.

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Lecture 18 on BST 631: Statistical Theory I – Kui Zhang, 10/30/2007
Review for the previous lecture
Definitions: conditional pmf (pdf), conditional expected values, independence
Theorems: how determine if two random variables are independence
Examples: calculate conditional pmf (pdf)
Chapter 4 – Multiple Random Variables
Chapter 4.2 – Conditional Distributions and Independence
Theorem 4.2.12: Let and be independent random variables with moment generating functions X Y ()
X
M
t and
()
Y
M
t. Then the moment generating function of the random variable
Z
XY is given by () ()
Y
=+ ()
ZX
M
tMtMt
=
.
() ( ) () (
Xt Yt Xt Yt Xt Yt
ZXY
)t Ee E e e Ee Ee M t M t
+
== = = . Proof:
M
Example 4.2.13: Let )
2
~(,Xn
μ
σ
and )
2
~(,Yn
γ
τ
and they are independent. Find the pdf of
XY
=
+. (This is
a very important result!!)
Solution: and , thus
22
() exp( /2)
X
Mt t t
μσ
=+ 22
() exp( /2)
Y
Mt t t
γτ
=+
222
( ) exp(( ) ( ) /2)
Z
Mt t t
μγ σ τ
=+++ , thus )
22
~( ,Zn
μ
γσ τ
++.
1
pf3
pf4
pf5

Partial preview of the text

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Lecture 18 on BST 631: Statistical Theory I – Kui Zhang, 10/30/2007 Review for the previous lecture Definitions:

conditional pmf (pdf), conditional expected values, independence

Theorems:

how determine if two random variables are independence

Examples:

calculate conditional pmf (pdf)

Chapter 4 – Multiple Random Variables

Chapter 4.2 – Conditional Distributions and Independence Theorem 4.2.12:

Let

and

be independent random variables with moment generating functions

X

Y

X M

t^

and

Y M

t^

. Then the moment generating function of the random variable

Z

X

Y

is given by

Y

Z^

X

M

t^

M

t M

t

(^

)^

Xt

Yt

Xt

Yt

Xt

Yt

Z^

X^

Y^

t^

Ee

E e

e

Ee

Ee

M

t M

t

Proof:

M

Example 4.2.13:

Let

(^

X

n

μ

σ

and

Y

n

γ τ

and they are independent. Find the pdf of

Z

X

Y

. (This is

a very important result!!) Solution:

and

, thus

2

2

exp(

X M

t^

t^

t

μ

σ

2

2

exp(

Y M

t^

t^

t

γ

τ

2

2

2

exp((

)^

(^

)^

Z M

t^

t^

t

μ

γ

σ

τ

, thus

2

2

(^

Z

n

μ

γ σ

τ

1

Lecture 18 on BST 631: Statistical Theory I – Kui Zhang, 10/30/2007 Theorem 4.2.14:

Let

2

(^

X

n

μ

σ

and

2

Y

n

γ

τ

be independent random variables. Then the random variable

X

Y has an

2

2

(^

n

μ

γ σ

τ

distribution.

Z Technical Note:

If

f^

x y

is the joint pdf for the continuous random vector

where

(^

,^

X Y

)^

X^

Y^

f^

x y

f^

x f

y

on a set

A

such that

)^

A^

f^

x y dxdy

, then

and

are still called independent random

variables.

X

Y

Example:

{(

, ):

0,

0}

)^

x^

y

u v u

v

x y

e

I^

x y

−^

>^

>

and

{( , ):

0,

0,

}

)^

x^

y

u v u

v^

u^

v

f^

x y

e

I^

x y

−^

>^

>^

f

Theorem:

Let

)^

be a bivariate random vector, then

(^

X Y

(^

(^

,^

)^

(^

,^

)^

)^

(^

(^

,^

,^

E

g X Y

h X Y

c

E g X Y

E h X Y

c

α

β

α

β

, specifically, we have

(^

)^

(^

)^

E

X

Y

E X

E Y

(2) If

and

are independent, then

X

Y

(^

(^

)^

(^

)^

)^

(^

(^

Var g X

h Y

c

Var g X

Var h Y

. Specifically, we have

(^

)^

(^

)^

(^

Var X

Y

Var X

Var Y

Chapter 4.3 – Bivariate Transformations Discrete Case: Let

be a discrete bivariate random vector with joint pmf

(^

,^

X Y

f^

x y

and support

)^

x

y

f^

x y

A

Define

x y

and

V

g

x y

with

2

u v

u

g

x

g

x y

U

g

1

) and y

v

B

for some

x

y

A

. For any

2

Lecture 18 on BST 631: Statistical Theory I – Kui Zhang, 10/30/2007 Continuous Case: Consider

a continuous bivariate random vector with joint pdf

(^

,^

X Y

f^

x y

and define

U

g

x y

and

V

g

. Let

2 ( , x

y

)^

x

y

f^

x y

and

2

)^

u v

u

g

x y

g

x y

A

1

and

v

B

for some

x

y

A

Assume that

U

and

are 1-1 transformation from

to

. Define

V

A

B

x

h u v

and

y

h

u v ( , ) 2

=

be the inverse

transformations. The Jacobian,

J

, of the transformation is defined as the determinant of a matrix of partial

derivatives:

x

x

x

y

y

x

u

v

J

y

y

u

v

u

v

u

v

Therefore, the joint pdf of

and

is given by

U

V

,^

,^

1

2

(^

U V

X Y

f^

u v

f^

h u v

h

u v

J

where

|^

is the absolute value of the Jacobian.

|^

J

Example 4.3.3 (Distribution of the product of two independent beta variables)

:. Let

(^

,^

X

beta

α

β

and

(^

,^

Y

beta

α

β γ

, then the joint pdf of (

,^

X Y

is

1

1

1

1

,

(^

)^

(^

)^

)^

)^

(^

)^

(^

)^

(^

)^

X Y f^

x y

x

x

x

x

x

y

α

β

α^

β

γ

α

β

α

β

γ

α

β

α

β

γ

−^

−^

+^

−^

Consider

Y

and

, then this an one to one transformation from

U

X

V

X

x

y

x

y

to

u v

. In addition,

V

u

v

,^

X

V Y

U

,^

v

|^

|^

J

, therefore

1

1

1

1 γ

,^

,

(^

)^

(^

)^

/^

)^

)^

(^

/^

)^

/^

(^

)^

(^

)^

(^

)^

U V

X Y

f^

u v

f^

v u v

v

v

u v

u v

v

α

β

α^

β

α

β

α

β

γ

α

β

α

β

γ

−^

−^

+^

−^

4

Lecture 18 on BST 631: Statistical Theory I – Kui Zhang, 10/30/2007 and

1

,

1 1

1

1

1

1

(^

)^

)^

(^

(^

)^

(^

)^

(^

)^

)^

(^

)^

(^

U

U V u

u

f^

u

f^

u v dv

u

v

v

v

u

dv

u

u

u

α^

β

β^

γ

β

γ

α

β^

γ

α

β

γ

α

β

γ

α

β

γ

α

β

γ

+^

−^

−^

−^

−^

−^

+^

Example 4.3.4 (Sum and difference of two independent normal random variables):

Let

(^

X

n

α

σ

and

2

(^

Y

n

β

σ

and they are independent. Consider

Y

U

X

and

Y

V

X

, then

X

U

V

,^

Y

U

V

and

Therefore,

|^

|^

J

,^

,

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

)^

exp(

)^

)^

exp(

(^

(^

(^

(^

exp(

)^

exp(

U V

X Y

f^

u v

f^

u

v

u

v

u

v

u

v

u

u

v

v

u

v

α

β

πσ

σ

α

β

α

β

α

β

πσ

σ

α

β

α

β

σ

σ

π

σ

π

σ

Theorem 4.3.5:

Let

and

be independent random variables. Let

be a function only of

X

Y

g x

x

and

be a

function only of y. Then the random variables

U

g x

(^

h y

and

(^

V

h

Y

are independent.

5

Lecture 18 on BST 631: Statistical Theory I – Kui Zhang, 10/30/

7

2

2

2

2

0

2

2

2

2

0

2

2

2

2

2

2

0 1

exp(

)^

exp(

)^

exp(

)^

exp(

exp(

)^

U

x

x

x

x

x

x

f^

u

dx

dx

u

u

u

u

u x

x

x

dx

u

u

u

−∞

∫^

2

2

2

2

0

2

2

0

(^

(^

exp(

)^

exp(

,^

)^

U

v

u

v

u

v

f^

u

dv

u

u

u

π

π

π

∞^

Example 4.3.6:

Show that the distribution of the ratio of two independent normal variables is a Cauchy random

variable. That is, if

X

n

,^

Y

n

, then

/^

U

X

Y

Cauchy

2

2

,^

,^

,

(^

(^

|^

(^

,^

|^

exp(

U V

X Y

X Y

v

u

v

f^

u v

f^

uv v

v

f^

uv

v

v

u

v

π

Similarly, you can get

f^ U

u

for

. You also need to verify the conditions such that the integration and

differentiation can be exchanged.

u

Solution 1.

Let

|^ , then |

V

Y

1

A

x y

y

,^

2

A

x y

y

,^

and

0

A

x y

y

2

2

exp(

0

/^

0

0

0

/

(^

)^

(^

/^

(^

U

x u

X^

y^

X^

y

x u

F

u

P U

u

P X

Y

u

f^

x f

y dydx

f^

x f

y dydx

−∞

Take the derivative respect to

, we have u

,

)^

X Y

x

y

f^

x y

π

. Therefore,

Solution 2.

For

, we have 0

u