Multiple Regression: Predicting Y with Multiple X Variables, Study notes of Statistics for Psychologists

Multiple regression analysis, a statistical method used to establish a linear function to predict a dependent variable (y) based on multiple independent variables (x1, x2, ..., xp). It covers the population and sample regression models, assumptions, and model testing using an anova table.

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Ch. 8. Multiple Regression
I. Situation
A. Have more than one X variable.
B. Want to establish a linear function to predict Y using
the linear combination of all X variables of interest.
II. Model
A. In the population
yi = β0 + β1xi1 + β2xi2 + . . . + βpxip + εi
where,
β0 - βp : regression coefficients,
xi1 - xip : predictor variables, and
εi : error associated with the prediction.
y
ˆ
i = μY|X1,X2,...,Xp = β0 + β1xi + β2xi2 + . . . + βpxip
where
y
ˆ
i : predicted value of y.
Thus,
yi = β0 + β1xi + β2xi2 + . . . + βpxip + εi
=
y
ˆ
i + εi
and,
εi = yi -
y
ˆ
i
B. Sample Regression Model
yi = b0 + b1xi1 + b2xi2 + . . . + bpxip + ei
y
ˆ
i = b0 + b1xi1 + b2xi2 + . . . + bpxip
ei = yi -
y
ˆ
i
III. Assumptions
A. Assumption 1: Existence
For a given value of
y
ˆ
, y has a certain (usually
normal) distribution with a finite mean (μY|X1,X2,...,Xp)
and variance (σ²Y|X1,X2,...,Xp).
B. Assumption 2: Independence
For a given value of
y
ˆ
, y is independently
distributed.
C. Assumption 3: Linearity
The mean values of y for a given
y
ˆ
make a straight-
line function with the
y
ˆ
values.
D. Assumption 4: Homoscedasticity
The variance of y-score distribution is the same
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Ch. 8. Multiple Regression

I. Situation A. Have more than one X variable. B. Want to establish a linear function to predict Y using the linear combination of all X variables of interest.

II. Model A. In the population yi = β 0 + β 1 xi1 + β 2 xi2 +... + βpxip + εi where, β 0 - βp : regression coefficients, xi1 - xip : predictor variables, and εi : error associated with the prediction.

y ˆ^ i = μY|X1,X2,...,Xp = β 0 + β 1 xi + β 2 xi2 +... + βpxip where (^) y ˆ (^) i : predicted value of y.

Thus, yi = β 0 + β 1 xi + β 2 xi2 +... + βpxip + εi = y ˆ^ i + εi and, εi = yi - y ˆ (^) i

B. Sample Regression Model

yi = b 0 + b 1 xi1 + b 2 xi2 +... + bpxip + ei

y ˆ (^) i = b 0 + b 1 xi1 + b 2 xi2 +... + bpxip

ei = yi - y ˆ (^) i

III. Assumptions A. Assumption 1: Existence For a given value of y ˆ^ , y has a certain (usually normal) distribution with a finite mean (μY|X1,X2,...,Xp) and variance (σ²Y|X1,X2,...,Xp). B. Assumption 2: Independence For a given value of y ˆ , y is independently

distributed. C. Assumption 3: Linearity The mean values of y for a given y ˆ make a straight- line function with the y ˆ values. D. Assumption 4: Homoscedasticity The variance of y-score distribution is the same

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across all given y ˆ^ values.

σ²Y|X1,X2,...,Xp ≡ σ² E. Assumption 5: Normal Distribution For each given y ˆ^ value the y scores are normally distributed. Y ∩ N(μY|X1,X2,...,Xp,σ²) F. Assumption 6: Error-free Measurement of X's The x's are measured without measurement error.

III. Model Testing: Testing if the model as a whole is a significant predictor of Y.

A. ANOVA Table

Source df SS MS F(obs)

Model (Reg) p SSR SSR/p MSR/MSE Error (Res) n-p-1 SSE SSE/(n-p-1) ────────────────────────────────────── Total n-1 SSY

B. Notes If F(obs) ≥ F(crit) [α=.05 or.01, df(num)=p, df(den)=n-p-1], then reject Ho.

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