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An introduction to probability theory, focusing on probability experiments, random variables, and their related concepts. It covers the basics of outcomes, sample spaces, events, and their probabilities. Special types of events, such as null, simple, union, intersection, complement, and mutually exclusive events, are discussed. The document also introduces the three axioms of probability and their properties, including the addition and complement rules. The concept of random variables and their probability distributions is introduced, with a focus on discrete random variables and their mean and variance.
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Probability experiment (Random experiment)— Random process which generates distinct outcomes Outcome – A result of a probability experiment Sample Space – S, The set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment; Use line method to denote – S = {#, #, #} Event – A collection of outcomes from the sample space; Use capital letters at the beginning of the alphabet to denote them in set notation – E: # > # Probability of an event, P (A) – relative frequency with which the event A will occur P (A) can be determined theoretically or empirically (perform experiment and observe how many times the event occurs Special types of event – Null Event , ᶲ -- Event with no outcomes to satisfy it Simple Event – An event which contains exactly one outcome Union Event , AᴗB – The event which contains all outcomes which satisfy event A or event B or both( Read as or) Intersection Event , AᴖB—The event which contains all outcomes which satisfy both event A and B (read as and) Complement of an event , A’ – Event which contains all outcomes in the sample space which do not satisfy event A (A’ read as not A) Mutually Exclusive Events – Two events which have no outcomes in common o Complements and simple events are always mutually exclusive Independent Events – Two events which are such that knowing whether one event occurs does not change the probability that the other event occurs 3 Axioms of Probability : 0 <P(A)< 1 P(S) = 1 P(A) = sum of the probabilities for all simple events whose union is A o Because of #2 and #3, the sum of the probabilities of all simple events is 1 Properties of Probability: Prop 4: If the outcomes in S are equally likely, then P (A) = # of outcomes in A/ # of outcomes in S Prop 5: Addition Rule for Mutually Exclusive Events : If events A and B are mutually exclusive, then P (AᴗB) = P (A) + P (B)
Prop 6: Complement Rule : P (A) = 1 – P (A’) Prop 7 : P (ᶲ) = 0 Prop 8: Multiplication Rule for Independent events: Events A and B are independent if and only if P (AᴖB) = P (A) P (B) Use to check if two events are independent Prop 9: Multiplication Rule : P (AᴖB) = P (A) P(B|A) = P(B)=P(A|B) Prop 10: Addition Rule: (P(AᴗB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AᴖB) Demorgan’s Law -- AᴖB’ = (A’ᴗB)’ and P (AᴖB’) = 1 – P(A’ ᴗB) Conditional Property of B given A, P (B|A) – P(B|A) = P(AᴖB)/P(A) = # of outcomes in AᴖB/ # of outcomes in A Consequently, if A is known to have occurred, the sample space is reduced from S to A 3.2 ---- Random Variable, Y – Assigns numbers to each outcome of a probability experiment Discrete Random Variable – A random variable that takes a finite number of possible values (y1, y2, …. Yk) Probability Distribution of a Discrete Random Variable – Assigns probabilities to each value of a discrete random variable; p(y) = P(Y=y) = P(A) where A: Y=y Two column chart: y and p(y) Histogram – Graphical representation of a probability distribution of a discrete random variable Properties of a probability distribution of a discrete random variable: