PREDICTING AN OUTCOME USING REGRESSION MODELS, Lecture notes of Accounting

PREDICTING AN OUTCOME USING REGRESSION MODELS

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2023/2024

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PREDICTING AN OUTCOME USING REGRESSION MODELS 1
MHA5017
Predicting an Outcome Using Regression Models
Capella University
Data Analysis for Health Care Decisions
MHA5017
Predicting an Outcome Using Regression Models
Multiple regression analysis is a way for us to understand more about the relationship
between several independent or predictor variables and a dependent or criterion variable (Kros &
Rosenthal, 2016). It also provides improvement of precision for estimation and prediction. In
this assignment, hospital administration needs to a make a decision on the amount of
reimbursement required to cover expected costs for next year. Based off the results of the
multiple regression analysis, a true statistical significance will help quantify whether a result is
likely due to chance or to some factor of interest (Gallo, 2016). The regression model will also
interpret the R square that takes into consideration the three independent variables of age, risk,
and satisfaction. These three independent variables will help explain the cost variable by
understanding if there is a relationship between the independent and independent variables. With
this analysis, the hospital administration will be able to predict the amount of reimbursement
needed to cover cost.
Interpret p-value and beta value
This model overall is significant because the p-value is 0.0 which is less than 0.05. A
significant result would be a p-value less than 0.05 and a non-significant result would be a p-
value greater than 0.5. The actual variables age, risk, and satisfaction p-values are statistically
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PREDICTING AN OUTCOME USING REGRESSION MODELS 1

MHA

Predicting an Outcome Using Regression Models

Capella University

Data Analysis for Health Care Decisions

MHA

Predicting an Outcome Using Regression Models

Multiple regression analysis is a way for us to understand more about the relationship

between several independent or predictor variables and a dependent or criterion variable (Kros &

Rosenthal, 2016). It also provides improvement of precision for estimation and prediction. In

this assignment, hospital administration needs to a make a decision on the amount of

reimbursement required to cover expected costs for next year. Based off the results of the

multiple regression analysis, a true statistical significance will help quantify whether a result is

likely due to chance or to some factor of interest (Gallo, 2016). The regression model will also

interpret the R square that takes into consideration the three independent variables of age, risk,

and satisfaction. These three independent variables will help explain the cost variable by

understanding if there is a relationship between the independent and independent variables. With

this analysis, the hospital administration will be able to predict the amount of reimbursement

needed to cover cost.

Interpret p-value and beta value

This model overall is significant because the p-value is 0.0 which is less than 0.05. A

significant result would be a p-value less than 0.05 and a non-significant result would be a p-

value greater than 0.5. The actual variables age, risk, and satisfaction p-values are statistically

significant. The coefficients can interpret the link between each independent and dependent

variable. The analysis reads that age has a beta coefficient of 107.04 and a p-value of 0.00 being

statistically significant. Risk has a beta coefficient of 153.56 and a p-value of 0.02 being

statistically significant and satisfaction has a beta coefficient of -9.19 and a p-value of 0.15 being

statistically non-significant. Therefore, age and risk are useful in the prediction of cost whereas

satisfaction is not.

Interpret R-squared and goodness of fit

R-square tells how much of the variability in the dependent variable is explained by the

independent variable. R-square is a goodness-of-fit measure, and the scale ranges from 0.0 to

1.0 (Kros & Rosenthal, 2016). The R-squared is 0.11% and collectively the three predictors or

independent variables age, risk, and satisfaction account for 0.11% variance in the dependent

variable cost. The R-square 0.11% is relatively low and minimizes predictive capability meaning

that 0.11% of the variance in cost can be accounted for by age, risk, and satisfaction. The cost

vs. age chart below shows a positive relationship with a best-fitting line that comes closest to all

the points in the set. This positive relationship can be seen as one variable increases so does the

other. Scatter plot Cost vs. Risk has a positive relationship with larger values of x which also has

larger values of y. Lastly, scatter plot Cost vs. Satisfaction has a negative relationship.

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000

Scatter Plot Cost vs. Risk

12 10 8 6 4 2 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 120

Scatter Plot Cost vs. Satisfaction

100 80 60 40 20 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000

Statistical Results of Data Analysis to Support a Healthcare Decision

A generated hypothesis included that Ho showed no relationship between any three

independent variable and H1 showed at least one relationship between the three independent

variables. The null hypothesis would be rejected since the p-value is significant and that age

and risk are contributing predictors of cost. With a given of age,

risk, and satisfaction my point prediction is $18,267 but there is a 95% probably that it

will be between $12,879 and $23,655.

SUMMARY

OUTPUT

Regression Statistics Multiple R 0. R Square 0. Adjusted R Square 0. Standard Error 2482. Observation s 185. ANOV A df SS MS F Significan c e F

Point T- St. Error of Lowe r Upp er Interv al Satisfacti Predicti valu Of Boun Boun Age Risk on on e Pred. Error d d Width 1.97 1287 2365 75.00 7.00 58 18267 3 2731 5388 9 5 10776 82.00 2.00 4 19342

References

Gallo, A. (2016, February 16). A refresher on statistical significance. Harvard Business Review

Digital Articles , 2–9.

Kros, J. F. & Rosenthal, D. (2016). Statistics for Health Care Management and Administration.

Data Acquisition: Sampling and Data Preparation (third edition). Jossey-

Bass. https://ebookcentral-proquest-com.library.capella.edu/lib/capella/detail.action?

docID=