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World Scholars Cup: Social Studies
Nostradamus - correct answer โโ(1503- 1566) -French -Physician and Reputed Seer -Published famous collections of prophecies -Credited for predicting: The Great Fire of London, Rise of Napoleon and Hitler, 9/11 and others. -Predicted a great comet, Nibiru, or rogue planet, Planet X, would impact the Mediterranean on December 21, 2012 (or June/July 1999), causing great destruction worldwide. Prediction Quiz: (http://www.godandscience.org/cgi-bin/quiztest.cgi?nostradamusquiz) Grigori Yefimovich Rasputin - correct answer โโ(Jan 1869 - Dec 1916) -a Russian peasant, a traveler, a mystical faith healer, and trusted friend to last Tsar Nicholas II -advised Tsar's wife Alexandra Feodorovna, scapegoat for nationalists. -heavy drinker, womanizer -a lot of uncertainty Cassandra - correct answer โโFictional Character from Iliad
- her name is employed as a rhetorical device to indicate someone whose accurate prophecies are not believed by those around them
- Trying to seduce her, Appollo gave her prophecy powers - but when she refused he spat into her mouth and cursed her so that no one would believe her prophecies. or
- she fell asleep at a temple and snakes (symbols of knowledge) whispered in her ears so she could hear the future.
- She predicted the fall of Troy and death of Agamennon, no one believed her. Ajax dragged her from Athena's altar and raped her. Athena sank most of Greek ships. Later she fell into Agamennons possesion and was murdered with him.
Robert Fitzroy - correct answer โโ(July 5/ 1805 - April 30/ 1865) -Navy officer, scientist, meteorologist
- Made accurate weather predictions, named "forecasts"
- Created primary version of Met office, and taught sailors and fisherman to predict weather.
- directed design and distribution of barometer Michio Kaku - correct answer โโ(Janurary 24/ 1947 -)
- theoretical physicist, futurist and science popularizer.
- Written several books about the future. Ray Kurzweil - correct answer โโ(Feburary 12/ 1948 -) -author, computer science, invertor and futurist -wrote books on a variety of topics and is involved in fields like text to speech synthesis, speech recognition, etc. -public advocate for futurist and transhumanism movements. -predicted that, in 2005, supercomputers with the computational capacities to simulate protein folding will be introduced, it happened in 2010 with a small amount of protein. Nate Silver - correct answer โโ(Janurary 13. 1978 -)
- staistician and writer, basebal and election analyst -editor in chief of ESPN's FiveThirtyEight and correspondent for ABC news
- developed PECOTA, which predicts the prefeormance and career of major legue players, which he later sold and managed from 2003-
- predicted 2008 election outcome in 49/50 states -named one of Time's 100 Most Influencial People Nate Cohn - correct answer โโ(~1989) -NYT Predictor -After Nate Silver moved from NYT, Nate Cohn was hired as his replacement and while he is not as famous, has held up a good record
-later that same year, missionaries from The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints made initial contacts with individuals from Ngฤti Kahungunu. Some of the Maori who converted to Mormonism believed that the coming of the Mormon missionaries was a fulfillment of Potangaroa's prophecy. John Elfreth Watkins, Jr. - correct answer โโ(May 17/ 1852 - 1803) -contributed an article to the Ladies' Home Journal, entitled What May Happen in the Next Hundred Years. Watkins Jr.'s predictions were remarkably accurate for 1900. Y2K Problem - correct answer โโThe Year 200 Problem - this problem arose because programers noted years with only the two final digits, which made 1800, 1900, 2000 all undestinguishable. The assumption that a twentieth-century date was always understood caused various errors, such as the incorrect display of dates, and the inaccurate ordering of automated dated records or real-time events. (more problems followed from this) Some systems had problems once the year rolled over to 2010. This was dubbed by some in the media as the "Y2K+10" or "Y2.01K" problem.[19] The main source of problems was confusion between hexadecimal number encoding and binary-coded decimal encodings of numbers. Both hexadecimal and BCD encode the numbers 0-9 as 0x0-0x9. But BCD encodes the number 10 as 0x10, whereas hexadecimal encodes the number 10 as 0x0A; 0x interpreted as a hexadecimal encoding represents the number 16. Year 2038 problem The original Unix time datatype (time_t) stores a date and time as a signed long integer (on 32 bit systems a 32-bit integer) representing the number of seconds since 1 January 1970. During and after 2038, this number will exceed 231 โ 1, the largest number representable by a signed long integer on 32 bit systems, causing the Year 2038 problem (also known as the Unix Millennium bug or Y2K38). As a long integer in 64 bit systems uses 64 bits, the problem does not realistically exist on 64 bit systems that use the LP64 model. 2012 Doomsday Phenomenon - correct answer โโa range of theological beliefs about death and judgement and all sin that cataclysmic or otherwise transformative events would occur on or around 21 December 2012. This date was regarded as the end-date of a 5,126-year-long cycle in the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar, and as such, festivities to commemorate the date took place on 21 December 2012 in the countries that were part of the Maya civilization.
"end of the world cos Mayans ran out of Calendar ideas" Final Anhropic Principle - correct answer โโStrong Anthropic Principle: that universe is created especially for us, because conditions are perfect. The universe needs to exists exactly as is for us to survive. Critics of the final omega point principle say its arguments violate the Copernican principle, that it incorrectly applies the laws of probability, and that it is really a theology or metaphysics principle made to sound plausible to laypeople by using the esoteric language of physics. The Called Shot - correct answer โโBabe Ruth's called shot was the home run hit by Babe Ruth of the New York Yankees in the fifth inning of Game 3 of the 1932 World Series, held on October 1, 1932, at Wrigley Field in Chicago. During the at-bat, Ruth made a pointing gesture, which existing film confirms, but the exact meaning of his gesture remains ambiguous. Although neither fully confirmed nor refuted, the story goes that Ruth pointed to the center-field bleachers during the at-bat. It was allegedly a declaration that he would hit a home run to this part of the park. On the next pitch, Ruth hit a home run to center field. The home run was his fifteenth, and last, in his 41 post-season games. It was said to be one of the greatest home runs in history AIMA Prophecy - correct answer โโThe AIMA prophecy was a prophecy current during the reign of the Byzantine emperor, Manuel I Comnenus (r. 1143-1180) and at the same time an example of a medieval contrived acronym. It claimed to foretell that the initial letters of the names of the emperors of the Comnenus dynasty would spell aima (ฮฑฮนฮผฮฑ), the Greek word for blood. The emperors had been, in order, Alexius I (A, alpha), Ioannes II (I, iota), and Manuel I (M, mu) (whose succession was unexpected since he was the fourth son of Ioannes). Because of his belief that his successor's name would have to start with the letter alpha, Manuel had the name Alexius bestowed on his daughter Maria's first fiancรฉ and on at least one and perhaps two of his own illegitimate sons, and finally on his legitimate son Alexius, child of his second marriage.The reign of Alexius II lasted only three years, before he was deposed and killed by his cousin, Andronicus I Comnenus, with whom, apparently, the AIMA sequence began again. In accordance with this, Andronicus would be succeeded in turn by an emperor whose name began with the letter I (iota). Andronicus hence feared his throne would be usurped by another cousin, Isaac Comnenus of Cyprus. In fact, Andronicus was killed in 1185 and succeeded by Isaac II Angelus after an uprising. The repeated sequence apparently ended with Isaac II. Benford's Law - correct answer โโalso called the first-digit law, is an observation about the frequency distribution of leading digits in many real-life sets of numerical data. The law states that in many naturally occurring collections of numbers, the leading significant digit is likely to be small. P(d) = log10(1+1/D)
Retrodiction - correct answer โโ-predicting the past -already gathered data is accounted for by a later theoretical advance in a more convincing fashion -example of a retrodiction is the perihelion shift of Mercury which Newtonian mechanics plus gravity was unable, totally, to account for whilst Einstein's general relativity made short work of it. -the explanation or interpretation of past actions or events inferred from the laws that are assumed to have governed them. Nowcasting - correct answer โโ- the prediction of the present, the very near future and the very recent past in economics. -Nowcasting models have been applied in many institutions, in particular Central Banks, and the technique is used routinely to monitor the state of the economy in real time. -used in social media to find out the general mood in real time or a flu epidemic -previously used in meteorology Palmistry - correct answer โโ-chiromancy and manteia is the claim of characterisation and foretelling the future through the study of the palm, also known as palm reading or chirology. The practice is found all over the world, with numerous cultural variations. -Criticism of palmistry often rests with the lack of empirical evidence supporting its efficacy. Scientific literature typically regards palmistry as a pseudoscientific or superstitious belief. Tasseography - correct answer โโ- a divination or fortune-telling method that interprets patterns in tea leaves, coffee grounds, or wine sediments. -After a cup of tea has been poured, without using a tea strainer, the tea is drunk or poured away. The cup should then be shaken well and any remaining liquid drained off in the saucer. The diviner now looks at the pattern of tea leaves in the cup and allows the imagination to play around [with] the shapes suggested by them. They might look like a letter, a heart shape, or a ring. These shapes are then interpreted intuitively or by means of a fairly standard system of symbolism, such as: snake (enmity or falsehood), spade (good fortune through industry), mountain (journey of hindrance), or house (change, success). Ouija - correct answer โโ-a spirit talking board. -a flat board marked with the letters of the alphabet, the numbers 0-9, the words "yes", "no", "hello" (occasionally), and "goodbye", along with various symbols and graphics. It uses a small heart-shaped
piece of wood or plastic called a planchette. Participants place their fingers on the planchette, and it is moved about the board to spell out words. "Ouija" is a trademark of Hasbro, Inc., but is often used generically to refer to any talking board. -commercial introduction by businessman Elijah Bond on July 1, 1890, the Ouija board was regarded as a parlor game unrelated to the occult until American Spiritualist Pearl Curran popularized its use as a divining tool during World War I. Spiritualists believed that the dead were able to contact the living and reportedly used a talking board very similar to a modern Ouija board at their camps in Ohio in 1886 to ostensibly enable faster communication with spirits. Sabermetrics - correct answer โโ-analysis of baseball, especially in game activity -The term is derived from the acronym SABR, which stands for the Society for American Baseball Research, founded in 1971.
- most common are evaluating past performance and predicting future performance to determine a player's contributions to his team. useful when determining who should win end-of-the-season awards such as MVP and when determining the value of making a certain trade. watch Moneyball Acturial Science - correct answer โโ-discipline that applies mathematical and statistical methods to assess risk in insurance, finance and other industries and professions. -actuaries: professionals qualified in this field through intense education and experience. -includes a number of interrelated subjects, including mathematics,probability theory, statistics, finance, economics, and computer science. Historically, actuarial science used deterministic models in the construction of tables and premiums. The science has gone through revolutionary changes during the last 30 years due to the proliferation of high speed computers and the union of stochastic actuarial models with modern financial theory Predictive Modelling - correct answer โโ-uses statistics to predict outcomes. -predictive models are often used to detect crimes and identify suspects, after the crime has taken place. Horoscope - correct answer โโ- astrological chart or diagram representing the positions of theSun, Moon, planets, astrological aspects, and sensitive angles at the time of an event, such as the moment of a person's birth. -part of chineese religion and is based on the year you are born in
Self-Fulfilling Prophecies - correct answer โโ-A prediction that directly or indirectly causes itself to become true, by the very terms of the prophecy itself -Seen in literature from ancient times -Robert K. Merton who is credited with coining the expression "self-fulfilling prophecy" and formalising its structure and consequences. -Merton's definition: The self-fulfilling prophecy is, in the beginning, a false definition of the situation evoking a new behavior which makes the original false conception come true. This specious validity of the self-fulfilling prophecy perpetuates a reign of error. For the prophet will cite the actual course of events as proof that he was right from the very beginning Prediction vs. Projection vs. Forecast - correct answer โโ-A prediction (Latin prรฆ-, "before," and dicere, "to say"), or forecast, is a statement about an uncertain event. It is often, but not always, based upon experience or knowledge. There is no universal agreement about the exact difference between the two terms; different authors and disciplines ascribe different connotations. -In science, a prediction is a rigorous, often quantitative, statement, forecasting what would happen under specific conditions; for example, if an apple fell from a tree it would be attracted towards the centre of the earth by gravity with a specified and constant acceleration. -Outside the rigorous context of science, the term "prediction" is often used to refer to an informed guess or opinion. A prediction of this kind might be inductively valid if the predictor is a knowledgeable person in the field and is employing sound reasoning and accurate data.[2] Large corporations invest heavily in this kind of activity to help focus attention on possible events, risks and business opportunities, using futurists. Such work brings together all available past and current data, as a basis to develop reasonable expectations about the future. Causation - correct answer โโ-a belief that events occur in a predictable way, where one leads to another. Correlation - correct answer โโ-broad class of statistical relationships involving dependence -in common usage it reffers to two valuables which are connected in a linear relationship Sampling error - correct answer โโ-when statistical assumptions of a population are made based on a small sample of that population. -Exact measurement of sampling error is generally not feasible since the true population values are unknown; however, sampling error can often be estimated by probabilistic modelling of the sample.
Standard deviation - correct answer โโ-represented by greek sigma or latin s -measure used to quantify the amount of variation or dispertion of a set of data values.
- difference between the variation, if its big then the points of your graph may be dispersed. Confidence Interval - correct answer โโ-type of interval estimate of a population parameter. It is an observed interval. How frequently the observed interval contains the true parameter if the experiment is repeated is called the confidence level. -a range of values so defined that there is a specified probability that the value of a parameter lies within it. Outliers - correct answer โโ- an observation point that is distant from other observations. An outlier may be due to variability in the measurement or it may indicate experimental error; the latter are sometimes excluded from the data set Preiction Markets - correct answer โโ-exchange-traded markets created for the purpose of trading the outcome of events. The market prices can indicate what the crowd thinks the probability of the event is Black Swans - correct answer โโ-black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. -based on an old saying that black swans didn't exist and was rewritten after they were found in nature. -The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain: 1)The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology. 2)The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities). 3)The psychological biases which blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs.
