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Welcome to the

Presentation

Course Title: International Financial Market

Course Code: FIN 4141

Section: 1

Presented To Khairul Alom Senior Lecturer, Southeast Business School, Southeast University.

Export &

Import

and FDI

Inflows in

the

Pandemic

• (^) COVID-19 was first reported in Wuhan, China, and subsequently spread worldwide.
• (^) In October 2019, I attended a simulation involving a fictional pandemic, caused by a novel coronavirus that killed 65 million people.
• (^) The World Health Organization declared the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in January 2020 and a pandemic in March 2020.
• (^) The responses to the pandemic have resulted in global social and economic disruption, including the largest global recession since the Great Depression.
• (^) Led to the postponement or cancellation of events, widespread supply shortages exacerbated by panic buying, agricultural disruption and food shortages, and decreased emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases
• (^) Misinformation has circulated through social media and mass media. The Brief Background Of pandemic in 2019

Export Flow in the Pandemic Year Compare with last 10 Year

Import Flow in the pandemic year compare with last 10 year

Figure: FDI outflow to Asia and the Pacific Region FDI flows in the pandemic year compare with last 10 years (Cont...)

 (^) Current forecasts portray a very gloomy picture for 2020 with a 13 to 32 per cent decline in merchandise trade, a 30-40 per cent fall in foreign direct investment (FDI) along with a significant reduction in international airline passenger traffic by 44-80 percent.  (^) Trade is essential to save lives and livelihood. By the second quarter of 2020, trade contraction due to Covid-19 is deeper than the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007-08. According to the WTO, the estimated decline in merchandise trade in the second quarter of this year is around 18.5 per cent on a year-on-year basis resulting from the pandemic and associated lockdown measures. It further added the fall in trade now experienced was historically large and the steepest on record. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), a decline of around 20 per cent in trade is expected for

2020. According to the European Commission (EC), EU27 will experience a decline in trade volume by 10-16 per cent in 2020. Affects trade flows in the pandemic

FDI flow decrease compared to the previous year, especially in developing countries in the primary and manufacturing sectors. The OECD(2020)predicts that FDI flows in 2020 will fall by more than 30% under the most optimistic assumptions in the successful realization of the government's economic and health stimulus policies.

 (^) The Covid-19 pandemic, directly and indirectly, contributed to a strong global financial market reaction, including high exchange rate volatility.  (^) Trade and investment fluctuations depend on how quickly the pandemic can be controlled.  (^) The Covid-19 crisis might have created depreciating pressure on the exchange rate in Bangladesh, too, in the context of sharp decline in exports of RMG products – exports fell by 83 percent year-on-year in April 2020 – to a great extent and drop of remittances to some extent. This might have led to the appreciation of the real effective exchange rate (REER) because of non-adjustment of nominal rates.  (^) Though officially Bangladesh's exchange rate system is freely floating, in reality it maintains almost a fixed rate with a little sporadic movement. The changes in exchange rates of Bangladeshi taka against the US dollar for a three-month moving average was Tk. 0.20 for the last year (July 2019 to June 2020) and was Tk. 0.03 for the last six months (January to June

2020. indicating a very stable currency. The impact of exchange rate in the trade flows in the pandemic

Thank You!