Money & Banking Problem Set 4 Answers by J. Scott Sperling, Spring 2002, Assignments of Banking and Finance

The answers to problem set 4 in the money & banking course (econ 310 009) taught by j. Scott sperling during the spring 2002 semester. The problem set covers various topics related to bonds, interest rates, yield curves, and exchange rates.

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ECON 310 009 Money & Banking J. Scott Sperling
Spring 2002 [email protected]
Problem Set 4 Answers
Due: February 28, 2002
1. Why does the bond supply curve slope up and the bond demand curve slope down in the bond market
diagram?
The bond supply curve slopes up because as prices increase, ceteris paribus, borrowers are more willing
to supply bonds (they can receive a higher price, lower interest rate). The bond demand curve slopes
down because as prices decrease (interest rates increase), lenders are more willing to purchase bonds, ceteris
paribus.
2. How does a change in household wealth affect the price of bonds, all other things being equal? (show a
graph as well)
People will demand more bonds, shifting the demand curve for bonds out (to the right). The price of bonds
increases (interest rates decrease).
3. Two countries that are alike in all other respects differ markedly in their provision of social insurance.
One country provides old-age retirement pensions, unemployment insurance, and catastrophic illness in-
surance; the other country provides no social insurance. What is your prediction about the difference in
interest rates in the two countries? Explain, using a graph.
The country which provides social insurance has relatively higher spending, ceteris paribus. If they raise
revenues by issuing bonds (increasing the bond supply), their interest rate should be higher relative to the
country which has no social insurance programs.
4. Most economists argue that a boom in the stock market is a sign that profitable business opportunities
are expected for the future. Describe the likely effects of such a boom on the bond supply and interest rates.
What assumptions did you make?
Assuming that bond demand does not respond as much as bond supply, businesses will take advantage
of increased profit expectations by increasing investment through bond financing. Therefore the supply of
bonds increases pushing up interest rates.
5. A yield curve shows the relationship between the market interest rates on bonds that are identical except
in what aspect?
term to maturity
6. When does the yield curve slope upward, according to the expectations theory? According to the
segmented markets theory? According to the liquidity premium theory?
According to the expectations theory, the yield curve is upward sloping when future short-term interest
rates are expected to increase (Likewise, when [current] short-term interst rates are low). According to the
segmented markets theory, the yield curve almost always slopes upward due the risk premium associated
with longer term bonds. According to the liquidity preference theory, the yield curve is almost always
upward sloping, again, due the risk and liquidity premium associated with longer term bonds.
7. During the late 1970s Michael Milken convinced many investors that the yields on junk bonds more
than compensated their higher default risk. What do you think happened to the liquidity of these bonds as
a result?
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ECON 310 009 Money & Banking J. Scott Sperling Spring 2002 [email protected]

Problem Set 4 Answers

Due: February 28, 2002

1. Why does the bond supply curve slope up and the bond demand curve slope down in the bond market diagram?

The bond supply curve slopes up because as prices increase, ceteris paribus, borrowers are more willing to supply bonds (they can receive a higher price, lower interest rate). The bond demand curve slopes down because as prices decrease (interest rates increase), lenders are more willing to purchase bonds, ceteris paribus.

2. How does a change in household wealth affect the price of bonds, all other things being equal? (show a graph as well)

People will demand more bonds, shifting the demand curve for bonds out (to the right). The price of bonds increases (interest rates decrease).

3. Two countries that are alike in all other respects differ markedly in their provision of social insurance. One country provides old-age retirement pensions, unemployment insurance, and catastrophic illness in- surance; the other country provides no social insurance. What is your prediction about the difference in interest rates in the two countries? Explain, using a graph.

The country which provides social insurance has relatively higher spending, ceteris paribus. If they raise revenues by issuing bonds (increasing the bond supply), their interest rate should be higher relative to the country which has no social insurance programs.

4. Most economists argue that a boom in the stock market is a sign that profitable business opportunities are expected for the future. Describe the likely effects of such a boom on the bond supply and interest rates. What assumptions did you make?

Assuming that bond demand does not respond as much as bond supply, businesses will take advantage of increased profit expectations by increasing investment through bond financing. Therefore the supply of bonds increases pushing up interest rates.

5. A yield curve shows the relationship between the market interest rates on bonds that are identical except in what aspect?

term to maturity

6. When does the yield curve slope upward, according to the expectations theory? According to the segmented markets theory? According to the liquidity premium theory?

According to the expectations theory, the yield curve is upward sloping when future short-term interest rates are expected to increase (Likewise, when [current] short-term interst rates are low). According to the segmented markets theory, the yield curve almost always slopes upward due the risk premium associated with longer term bonds. According to the liquidity preference theory, the yield curve is almost always upward sloping, again, due the risk and liquidity premium associated with longer term bonds.

7. During the late 1970s Michael Milken convinced many investors that the yields on junk bonds more than compensated their higher default risk. What do you think happened to the liquidity of these bonds as a result?

ECON 310 009, Spring 2002 Problem Set 4 Answers Page 2 of 3

Liquidity increased as more investors were willing to accept the risk associated with junk bonds.

8. Suppose that interest rates for one-year bonds are expected to follow this pattern: 3% today, 5% one year from now, and 7% two years from now. What are the current interest rates on two-year and three-year bonds, according to the expectations theory.

2 − year =

3 − year =

9. Suppose the presidential election is won by a candidate who runs on a platform of “soak the rich.” After being elected he or she persuades Congress to raise the top marginal tax rate on the federal personal income tax from 39.6% to 65%. Use one diagram to show the impact of this change in tax rates on the municipal bond market and another diagram to show the impact on the market for U.S. Treasury bonds.

Municipal bonds will have a higher (after-tax) expected return, thus they are preferred relative to U.S. Treasuries. The interest rate should then be relatively lower on munis as their price increases. Your graphs should look similar to those on page 135, Figure 3, of your text.

10. What is the term for the idea that domestic nominal interest rates should equal foreign nominal interest rates minus the anticipated rate of change of the exchage rate?

interest rate parity condition

11. What is the difference between the nominal exchage rate and the real exchange rate?

The nominal interest rate is the price of one currency in terms of another. The real interest rate measures the purchasing power of a currency relative to other currencies.

12. Why might a fall in the value of the yen be considered good news for Japanese businesses, but bad news for Japanese consumers?

Japanese goods become less expensive abroad while imports into Japan become relatively more expensive.

13. If the U.S. dollar appreciates against the euro and the British pound but depreciates against the Japanese yen and the Canadian dollar, do the following exchange rates rise or fall?

a) euro/U.S. dollar —rise

b) U.S. dollar/pound —fall

c) yen/U.S. dollar —fall

d) U.S. dollar/Canadian dollar —rise

14. Suppose that the price in the United States of German BMWs rises from $32,000 to $33,000, and the price of Japanese Nikon cameras falls from $110 to $105, the price of English shoes falls from $205 to $180, and the price of French truffles rises from $35 to $40 per box. Which currencies have appreciated against the dollar and which have depreciated?