Understanding Sampling Distributions and Estimators in Statistics - Prof. Marlynne Ingram, Study notes of Economics

An introduction to the concept of sampling distributions and estimators in statistics. It explains that a sample is a subset of a larger population and that statistics, such as mean and variance, can be calculated from a sample. The document also discusses the importance of sampling distributions in determining how close sample statistics are to the true population values. It includes exercises for identifying population, sample, and estimator, as well as calculating sample statistics and confidence intervals.

Typology: Study notes

Pre 2010

Uploaded on 03/19/2009

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06E:071 1/25/2008
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Sampling Distributions
What’s variability got to do with it?
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Session ID: 920661
Push and hold
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three seconds to turn
unit on
Should say “Enter
session ID”
If not, need to push
arrow until it asks for
session ID
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Session ID: 920661
Type in “920661”
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signal
signal
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pf3
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Sampling Distributions

What’s variability got to do with it?

1

Session ID: 920661

„ Push and hold “Menu” button for three seconds to turn unit on

„ Should say “Enter session ID”

„ If not, need to push arrow until it asks for session ID

2

Session ID: 920661

„ Type in “920661”

„ You must push “Send” to send a signalsignal

3

Enter your ID

„ Be sure to include leading zeros

„ E.g., type “000365781”

4

True or False

True or false questions are easy.

5

Type in your age

6

Yes or No

„ If your first name starts with an “A” (i.e.,

Abby, Andrew, etc.), then

‰ Press “YES” if the last digit of your ID is even (0 2 4 6 8)(0,2,4,6,8) ‰ Pres “NO” if the last digit of your ID is odd (1,3,5,7,9)

10

Yes or No

„ If your first name starts with an “M” (i.e.,

Mary, Michael, etc.), then

‰ Press “YES” if the last digit of your ID is even (0 2 4 6 8)(0,2,4,6,8) ‰ Pres “NO” if the last digit of your ID is odd (1,3,5,7,9)

11

Order the choices to match the

terms:

1) p

3) All students in 6E:

p^ ˆ

4) Students with names beginning with “A”

a. Population b. Sample proportion c. Sample d. Population proportion

12

„ Samples are different, so proportions are different

„ How “close” is sample mean to truth?

„ Sampling Distribution will tell us!

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Statistic

„ Simple definition: a statistic is something you calculate from a sample

„ Hard definition: a statistic is a real-valued function of the samplefunction of the sample ‰ mean -- standard deviation -- the largest value

„ Each statistic has a distribution ‰ what are the possible values? ‰ how often do we expect those values to occur?

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What is an estimator?

A prediction of or guess about

a population valuel i l

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X X X

μ

Population

1 2 3

4

X X

X X

19

p^ ˆ p ˆ p ˆ

p

Population

(^1 ) 3

4

p p^ ˆ

p p

20

Sampling Distribution

(1 ) ˆ ,

p p p N p n

X N

⎛ (^) − ⎞ ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ ⎝ ⎠

⎛ ⎞

X N , n

⎛ ⎞ ⎜ ⎟ ⎝ ⎠

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Confidence Interval

„ A (1- α)% confidence interval for μ is given by:

n 1 , n 1

s s

x t α x t α

⎢ x^ −^ tn^^1 ,^ , x^ + tn 1, ⎥

n n

⎢ −^ α −α ⎥

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Example

„ Has CEO pay increased?

„ Sample data ‰ Mean percentage increase = 6.9% ‰‰ Standard deviation of increase = 55%Standard deviation of increase = 55% ‰ N = 104

„ 95% confidence interval

23

Hypothesis test

0 :^0

A :^0

H

H

μ

μ

24