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Solutions to the second midterm exam of math 213, covering topics on probability theory and recurrence relations. It includes calculations and explanations for three problems, such as the independence of two random variables, linda's expected score, and the probability of having five different kinds of cards in a poker hand.
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1 (10 points): A biased coin (the probability of getting Heads equals 1/3) is tossed twice. Consider two random variables: let X be the number of Heads obtained, and let Y be equal to 1 if the two tosses yield the same result (both Heads or both Tails), equal to 0 otherwise. Are the random variables X and Y independent?
X is a binomial random variable: p(X = k) =
k
pk(1 − p)^2 −k, hence p(X = 0) = p(X = 1) = 4/9, p(X = 2) = 1/9. Moreover, p(Y = 1) = p(HH) + p(T T ) = (1/3)^2 + (2/3)^2 = 5/9, and p(Y = 0) = 1 − p(Y = 1) = 4/9. Note now that if Y = 0, then X ≤ 1. Then 0 = p(Y = 0, X = 2) 6 = p(Y = 0)p(X = 2) = 4/81, and the random variables X and Y are not independent.
2 (10 points): The final exam contains 50 true/false questions, each worth 2 points, and 25 multiple-choice questions, each worth 4 points. Linda answers a true/false question correctly with the probability of 0.6. The probability she answers a multiple- choice question correctly is 0.8. Find Linda’s expected score.
Denote Linda’s score by X. Let X 1 (X 2 ) be the number of correct answers on the true-false section (resp. multiple-choice section). Then X = 2X 1 + 4X 2 , hence E(X) = 2E(X 1 ) + 4E(X 2 ). Note that X 1 is the number of successes in a series of n = 50 independent Bernoulli trials, if the probability of success p = 0.6. Thus, X 1 is a binomial random variable, and E(X 1 ) = np = 50 · 0 .6 = 30. Similarly, E(X 2 ) = 25 · 0 .8 = 20. Then E(X) = 2 · 30 + 4 · 20 = 140.
3 (10 points): What is the probability that a poker hand contains cards of five different kinds?
Recall that a card deck has 52 cards, of 13 different kinds (denominations). There are 4 suits, each containing one card of each denomination. A poker hand consists of 5 cards.
Our sample space S is the set of all selections of 5 cards (our of 52). The total number of poker hands (that is, the number of collections of 5 cards) equals
5
This is the cardinality of our sample space S. The event E occurs if 5 different kinds of cards (out of 13) are present. There are
5
ways to select the kinds of cards. For
each of the 5 selected kinds, there are four ways to pick a suit. Thus, |E| = 4^5
5
and p(E) = |E|/|S| = 4^5
5
5
1
2 MATH 213: SOLUTIONS FOR MIDTERM 2
4 (10 points): A sequence (an) satisfies the recurrence relation an = 4an− 2 − 9 n for n ≥ 2, a 0 = 9, and a 1 = 13. Find an explicit formula for an.
an = 2n^ + 3n + 8.
We are dealing with a non-homogeneous linear recurrence relation an = 4an− 2 +F (n),
where F (n) = − 9 n. We shall look for the solution in the form an = a( nh )+ a( np ), where
the sequence (a( nh )) solves the homogeneous linear recurrence relation an = 4an− 2 ,
and a (p) n is a particular solution to the non-homogeneous recurrence relation.^ The characteristic equation is r^2 − 4 = 0, with roots r 1 = −2 and r 2 = 2. Thus,
a( nh )= α 1 (−2)n^ + α 22 n, for some α 1 , α 2 ∈ R.
As far as a( np ) is concerned, we have F (n) = u(n) · 1 n, where u(n) = − 9 n is a
polynomial of degree 1, and 1 ∈ {/ r 1 , r 2 }. Thus, we look for a( np )= v(n) · 1 n, where
v is a polynomial of degree 1. In other words, a( np )= λn + μ. To find λ and μ, note that λn + μ = 4(λ(n − 2) + μ) − 9 n = (4λ − 9)n + (4μ − 8 λ).
Comparing the terms with n, we see that λ = 4λ − 9, hence λ = 3. The comparison
of the constant terms yields μ = 4μ − 8 λ, hence μ = 8. Thus, a( np )= 3n + 8, and the general solution of our recurrence relation is an = α 1 (−2)n^ + α 22 n^ + 3n + 8. From the initial condition, { a 0 = 9 = α 1 + α 2 + 8 a 1 = 13 = − 2 α 1 + 2α 2 + 11
Solving this system of equations for α 1 and α 2 , we obtain the answer.
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