MATH/STATS 525 Probability Theory Final Exam Solutions, Exams of Probability and Statistics

The final exam solutions for a probability theory course (math/stats 525) with 8 problems covering topics such as joint density functions, expected values, moment generating functions, and poisson distributions.

Typology: Exams

2012/2013

Uploaded on 02/20/2013

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Name
MATH/STATS 525 Probability Theory
FINAL EXAM
Friday, Dec. 16, 2005, 10:40am–12:30am
Instructions:
This examination booklet contains 8 problems on 13 sheets of paper including the front cover. The
second last page is left blank for your convenience. The last page contains some formulas of series
and distributions.
This is a closed book exam.
Show all your work and explain clearly.
Problem Possible score Your score
1 10
2 10
3 10
4 10
5 10
6 10
7 10
8 10
Total 80
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Name

MATH/STATS 525 Probability Theory

FINAL EXAM

Friday, Dec. 16, 2005, 10:40am–12:30am

Instructions:

  • This examination booklet contains 8 problems on 13 sheets of paper including the front cover. The second last page is left blank for your convenience. The last page contains some formulas of series and distributions.
  • This is a closed book exam.
  • Show all your work and explain clearly.

Problem Possible score Your score 1 10 2 10 3 10 4 10 5 10 6 10 7 10 8 10 Total 80

  1. (10 points) Suppose that X and Y have the joint density function

f (x, y) =

(x + y)e−(x+y), x, y > 0.

Find the density function of Z = X + Y.

  1. (10 points)

We have a wooden stick of length 1. Break the stick at a random point. The left piece has length X which is uniformly distributed on (0, 1). Break this piece further at a random point. The resulting left piece has length Y where Y is uniformly distributed on (0, X). Find (a) EY (b) fY |X (y|x) (c) fY (y).

  1. (10 points)

Let X 1 , X 2 ,... be independent Exp(1) random variables. The density function of Sn = X 1 +· · ·+Xn is known to be fSn (z) =

zn−^1 e−z (n − 1)!

, z > 0

for n = 1, 2 ,.... Here 0! = 1 as usual. You don’t need to prove this formula. Now fix λ > 0. Let N = min{n : X 1 + X 2 + · · · + Xn+1 > λ}. Find the distribution of N using the density function of Sn above.

(c) Using the result of (a), compute the moments E(Xk) of X ∼ N (0, 1) for all k = 1, 2 , 3 ,....

  1. (10 points) A coin, which shows heads with probability p, is tossed N times where N ∼ P ois(λ).

(a) Show that the number X of heads and the number Y of tails are independent.

(b) Find the distribution of X.

  1. (10 points)

(a) Let S = X + Y where X ∼ P ois(λ) and Y ∼ P ois(μ) are independent random variables. Show that S ∼ P ois(λ + μ). (Hint: You can use either the convolution formula or the probability generating function. The probability generating function of X ∼ P ois(λ) is E(zX^ ) = eλ(z−1).)

(b) Let S = X 1 +... Xn where X 1 , X 2 ,... , Xn are independent P ois(1) random variables. Show that S ∼ P ois(n).

(c) Let Sn ∼ P ois(n) where n is a positive integer. Prove that for each x,

nlim→∞ P

Sn − n √ n

≤ x

∫ (^) x

−∞

2 π

e−^

(^12) y 2 dy.

Facts that may be useful:

∑^ ∞

k=

xk^ =

1 − x

, |x| < 1

∑^ ∞

k=

xk k!

= ex

∑^ ∞

k=

(−1)k−^1 k

xk^ = log(1 + x), |x| < 1

(x + y)n^ =

∑^ n

k=

n k

xkyn−k

n^ lim→∞

α n

)n = eα

Some important distributions:

  • Bin(n, p): f (k) =

(n k

pk(1 − p)n−k, k = 0,... , n EX = np, varX = np(1 − p)

  • Geometric(p): f (k) = (1 − p)k−^1 p, for k = 1, 2 , 3 ,... EX = (^1) p , varX = (^1) p− 2 p.
  • Poisson(λ): f (k) = e−λ λ

k k! ,^ k^ ∈ {^0 ,^1 ,^2 ,.. .}^ EX^ =^ λ, varX^ =^ λ,^ G(z) =^ E(z

X (^) ) = eλ(z−1)

  • Uniform(a, b): f (x) = (^) b−^1 a for x ∈ [a, b], and 0 otherwise EX = a+ 2 b, varX = (b−a)

2

  • Exp(λ): f (x) = λe−λx^ for x ∈ [0, ∞), and 0 otherwise EX = (^1) λ , varX = (^) λ^12.
  • N(μ, σ^2 ): f (x) = √ 21 πσ 2 exp

−(x−μ)

2 2 σ^2

EX = μ, varX = σ^2.