Statistical Methods - Exam 1 - Fall 2007 | STAT 251, Exams of Data Analysis & Statistical Methods

Material Type: Exam; Professor: Edgeman; Class: Statistical Methods; Subject: Statistics; University: University of Idaho; Term: Summer 2007;

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Statistics 251 –Examination One – Summer 2007
NAME: __________________________ STUDENT ID: _________________
I pledge on my honor that I have not given or received any unauthorized assistance on this
examination. ____________________________ ______________________________
Signature Date
The following story from the 18 July 2006 edition of the
Seattle Post-Intelligencer will provide a backdrop for the
entire exam. Please read this before proceeding with the
exam.
Tuesday, July 18, 2006 · Last updated 8:00 p.m. PT
Meth Still No. 1 Drug Problem, Study
Finds
By SAM HANANEL, ASSOCIATED PRESS WRITER
WASHINGTON -- Meth abuse continues to fuel an increase in
crimes like robbery and assault, straining the workload of local
police forces despite a drop in the number of meth lab seizures,
according to a survey Tuesday.
Nearly half of county law enforcement officials consider
methamphetamine their primary drug problem, more than
cocaine, marijuana and heroin combined, the survey of the National Association of Counties found.
"Abuse of this highly addictive brain-altering drug continues to destroy lives and strain essential county
services across America," said Bill Hansell, the association's president and commissioner of Umatilla
County, Ore.
The survey of 500 county law enforcement officials in 44 states showed that about half reported a decrease
in the number of meth lab busts as a result of laws that restrict the sale of cold medicines with precursor
ingredients used in the manufacture of meth.
That's consistent with federal figures released last month showing a 30 percent drop in the number of labs
seized nationwide. But county officials said supply of the drug remains high from superlabs in California
and Mexico.
About half the counties reported that one in five inmates are jailed because of meth-related crimes like
robberies and burglaries. Another 17 percent of counties reported that one in two inmates are incarcerated
for meth-related activity.
Hansell called on Congress to develop a comprehensive strategy to deal with the meth problem that
includes more funding for anti-drug task forces, drug prevention campaigns, treatment programs and
cleanup of toxic chemicals used to make meth.
Last month, the White House drug-policy office set a goal to cut meth use by 15 percent over the next three
years and increase seizures of meth labs by 25 percent.
Hansell also urged federal lawmakers to reject a Bush administration proposal to eliminate the Justice
Assistance Grant program, which funds drug task forces around the country. That call was echoed by local
law enforcement officials at a news conference to announce the survey.
"It makes absolutely no sense to fight a war on drugs, then reduce the funding when you're in the midst of
battle," said Oklahoma County Sheriff John Whetsel. About 1,000 of the 2,800 inmates in the Oklahoma
County jail are incarcerated for meth-related crimes, he said.
Statistics 251-Summer 2007 - Examination One
5 pages total
A pouch containing crystalized
methamphetamine and a homemade pipe are
shown March 21, 2006 in Window Rock, Ariz. A
survey says Meth abuse continues to fuel an
increase in crimes like robbery and assault. (AP
Photo/Matt York, FILE)
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Statistics 251 –Examination One – Summer 2007

NAME : __________________________ STUDENT ID : _________________

I pledge on my honor that I have not given or received any unauthorized assistance on this examination. ____________________________ ______________________________ Signature Date The following story from the 18 July 2006 edition of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer will provide a backdrop for the entire exam. Please read this before proceeding with the exam. Tuesday, July 18, 2006 · Last updated 8:00 p.m. PT

Meth Still No. 1 Drug Problem, Study

Finds

By SAM HANANEL, ASSOCIATED PRESS WRITER WASHINGTON -- Meth abuse continues to fuel an increase in crimes like robbery and assault, straining the workload of local police forces despite a drop in the number of meth lab seizures, according to a survey Tuesday. Nearly half of county law enforcement officials consider methamphetamine their primary drug problem, more than cocaine, marijuana and heroin combined, the survey of the National Association of Counties found. "Abuse of this highly addictive brain-altering drug continues to destroy lives and strain essential county services across America," said Bill Hansell, the association's president and commissioner of Umatilla County, Ore. The survey of 500 county law enforcement officials in 44 states showed that about half reported a decrease in the number of meth lab busts as a result of laws that restrict the sale of cold medicines with precursor ingredients used in the manufacture of meth. That's consistent with federal figures released last month showing a 30 percent drop in the number of labs seized nationwide. But county officials said supply of the drug remains high from superlabs in California and Mexico. About half the counties reported that one in five inmates are jailed because of meth-related crimes like robberies and burglaries. Another 17 percent of counties reported that one in two inmates are incarcerated for meth-related activity. Hansell called on Congress to develop a comprehensive strategy to deal with the meth problem that includes more funding for anti-drug task forces, drug prevention campaigns, treatment programs and cleanup of toxic chemicals used to make meth. Last month, the White House drug-policy office set a goal to cut meth use by 15 percent over the next three years and increase seizures of meth labs by 25 percent. Hansell also urged federal lawmakers to reject a Bush administration proposal to eliminate the Justice Assistance Grant program, which funds drug task forces around the country. That call was echoed by local law enforcement officials at a news conference to announce the survey. "It makes absolutely no sense to fight a war on drugs, then reduce the funding when you're in the midst of battle," said Oklahoma County Sheriff John Whetsel. About 1,000 of the 2,800 inmates in the Oklahoma County jail are incarcerated for meth-related crimes, he said. Statistics 251-Summer 2007 - Examination One A pouch containing crystalized methamphetamine and a homemade pipe are shown March 21, 2006 in Window Rock, Ariz. A survey says Meth abuse continues to fuel an increase in crimes like robbery and assault. (AP Photo/Matt York, FILE)

The survey, taken at the end of June, is based on a random sample of sheriffs or police chiefs in 500 of the nation's 3,066 counties. The association does not reveal the identity of the counties because it would discourage them from responding freely, said Jacqueline Byers, NACo's director of research. On the Net: National Association of Counties: http://www.naco.org

Setting One (Questions 1 through 6: 25 Points): Both Washington and Oregon have

enacted stronger laws related to meth-production, distribution, and use than has Idaho. This has led some meth-labs formerly in Washington and Oregon to relocate to Idaho. Advocates of tougher meth laws believe that as a result of this Idaho may have a higher proportion of meth- related crimes than do Washington and Oregon. A random sample of 1,000 crime reports gave the following results. STATE

CRIME REPORTS

Meth-Related Not Meth-Related Totals

Idaho 100 150 250 Washington 105 245 350 Oregon 120 280 400

Totals 325 675 1,

If a crime report is randomly selected from this sample of 1,000 reports then:

**1. What is the probability that the report is from Idaho? (4 points) _______________

  1. What is the probability that the report is for a meth- (4 points) _______________** **related crime?
  2. What is the probability that it is a meth-related report (4 points) _______________** **from Idaho?
  3. What is the probability that it is a meth-related report (4 points) _______________
  4. If the events (A) and (B) are as defined below, then are (5 points) _______________** A and B independent or dependent events? Show your work AND explain your answer. A: the report is from Idaho **B: the report is for a meth-related crime.
  5. Discuss: With regard to proportion of crime that is meth-related, how do Idaho,** Washington, and Oregon compare? Do you believe that there are any substantial differences and – if so – why? If not, then again, why? (4 points). Statistics 251-Summer 2007 - Examination One

Setting Four (Questions 15 through 18: 20 points): Suppose that the “lifetime financial

burden on the social system per meth-addict” ( CALL THIS “ X ) is approximately normally distributed with a mean of $200K and a standard deviation of $50K. Then, for a randomly selected meth-addict:

**15. What is the probability that X will be at most $150K? (5 points) _______________

  1. What is the probability that X will be at least $275K? (5 points) _______________
  2. What is the probability that X will be between $150K and $275K (5 pts) __________
  3. What is the value of X such that only 10% of meth-addicts (5 points) __________** Will have that financial burden or less on the social system over their lifetime?

Setting Five (Questions 19 through 2x: 25 points): Meth-addicts are often incarcerated,

hospitalized or otherwise institutionalized. Suppose that the number of incarcerations, hospitalizations or other institutionalizations over the period 1995 to 2005 (call these values “X”) for each of 20 randomly sampled meth-addicts are as follows: 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5, 6, 6, 6, 7, 7, 7, 8, 8, 9, 13, 37 for which we have ∑Xi = 140 and ∑Xi^2 = 2,

19. What are the mean, variance, and standard deviation of X? Be sure to include the proper units of measure (6 points – 2pts each).

Mean = ________ Variance = _________ Standard Deviation = ________

20. Using the empirical rule we should have approximately (3 points – 1 pt. per pair): 68% of values between: __________ and __________ 95% of values between: __________ and __________ 99% of values between: __________ and __________ Statistics 251-Summer 2007 - Examination One

21. Use the information from questions 19 and 20 to discuss the concepts of “address”, “variation”, “shape” and “whether or not there are any unusual values” among the 20 **observations (3 points)

  1. What are the values of the min, Q 1 , median, Q 3 , and max (5 points – 1 pt. each)** Min = _____ Q 1 = _____ Median = _____ Q 3 = _____ max = _____ 23. What are the values of the four (inner and outer upper & lower) outlier points? (4 points – 1 pt. each): Inner Lower Outlier Point = __________ Inner Upper Outlier Point = __________ Outer Lower Outlier Point = _________ Outer Upper Outlier Point = __________ 24. Use the information from questions 22 and 23 to ACCURATELY draw the boxplot over the number line provided below … be sure to label the values of questions 22 and 23. After doing this, then use the same information and the boxplot to discuss the concepts of “address”, “variation”, “shape” and “whether or not there are any unusual values” among the 20 observations (4 points – 2pts for the boxplot and 2 pts for the discussion). _____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|_____|__ 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 44 48 Discussion : Statistics 251-Summer 2007 - Examination One