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Material Type: Notes; Professor: Wang; Class: Statistical Methods I; Subject: Statistics; University: University of Central Florida; Term: Fall 2009;
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Chapter 4 A random variable is a variable that assumes values associated with the random outcomes of a random experiment, where one and only one numerical values is assigned to each sample point. The distance between you home and UCF is between 0 and 100 miles that is an interval, i.e., the distance between your home and UCF is a continuous random variable The number of heads in coin tossing experiment is a count, i.e., the number of heads in a coin tossing experiment is a discrete random variable Usually, we can use the following four steps to complete a probability table. Step 1: Find out the variable of interest. Step 2: List all the sample points in the sample space. Step 3: List all the possible values of this random variable. Step 4: Assign the probabilities to all the possible values. The probability distribution of a discrete random variable is a graph, a table, or a formula that specifies the probability associated with each possible value the random can assume. The probability distribution should not include values that have zero probabilities. Thus, the probability of any value of a random variable is among 0 and 1 and the sum of the probabilities of all possible values of a random variable is equal to one. Population Mean – μ = Σ xp(x) = E(x) Population Variance – σ2= E[(x-μ)2] = Σ(x-μ)2x p(x)μ)2] = Σ(x-μ)2] = Σ(x-μ)2x p(x)μ)2x p(x)
Binomial Random Variable – characteristics: First, they consist of n identical and independent trials. Second, there are only two possible outcomes denoted by S and F on each trail. Third, the possibility of each outcome remains unchanged from trial to trial, that is, the probability of S is p and probability of F is q=(1-μ)2] = Σ(x-μ)2x p(x)p). Fourth, we are interested in the random variable x represented the number of S happened in n trails (n is a fixed number). Therefore, it is worth to develop a special probability model to deal with this kind of random variables. Any random variable that has these four characteristics is called binomial random variable and can be dealt by using this special probability model. Suppose that X is a binomial random variable. The probability of success on any single trial is p and there are n trials in this random experiment. The probability density function of X is P(X=x) = p(x) = (
)pxq(n-μ)2] = Σ(x-μ)2x p(x)x)^ x= 0,1,2,…,n p = the probability of success on any single trial n = total number of trials q = 1 -μ)2] = Σ(x-μ)2x p(x)p x = number of successes in n trials. Let μ and σ be the mean and standard deviation of the binomial random variable X. Instead of using the expectation summation rules to calculate μ and σ, we can find μ and σ easily using the formulas μ= np, σ2= npq= np(1-μ)2] = Σ(x-μ)2x p(x)p),and σ= (^) √ npq = (^) √ np ( 1 − p ) Poisson probability model –
x
− λ
x=0,1,2,…, Both the mean and the variance of a Poisson random variable equals to λ, i.e., μ = λ and σ^2 = λ Collection of Definitions: Random Variable –A random variable is a rule that assigns one and only one numerical value to each sample point in a random experiment. Discrete Random Variable – Discrete random variable is one kind of random variable that can assume values on countable number of points. Continuous Random Variable – Continuous random variable is one kind of random variable that can assume values in one or more intervals. Probability Distribution – The probability distribution of a discrete random variable is a graph, a table, or a formula that specifies the probability associated with each possible value the random can assume. Expectation of a Discrete Random Variable -μ)2] = Σ(x-μ)2x p(x) The expectation of a discrete random variable is the population mean of this random variable. We can use the following formula to compute the expectation of a discrete random variable μ=Σxp(x)=E(x). Variance of Discrete Random Variable -μ)2] = Σ(x-μ)2x p(x) The variance of a discrete random variable is σ^2 = E[(x-μ)2] = Σ(x-μ)2x p(x)μ)^2 ] = Σ(x-μ)2] = Σ(x-μ)2x p(x)μ)2p(x). Standard Deviation of Discrete Random Variable -μ)2] = Σ(x-μ)2x p(x) The standard deviation of a discrete random variable is equal to the square root of the variance of this
Binomial Distribution -μ)2] = Σ(x-μ)2x p(x) The probability density function of a binomial random variable is P(X=x) = p(x) = (
)pxq(n-μ)2] = Σ(x-μ)2x p(x)x)^ , where p = the probability of success on any single trial ; n = total number of trials; x = number of successes in n trials; q = 1 -μ)2] = Σ(x-μ)2x p(x)p;
The mean of a binomial random variable is np, i.e., μ = np; The variance of a binomial random variable is npq, i.e., σ^2 = npq= np(1-μ)2] = Σ(x-μ)2x p(x)p)
x
− λ
x=0,1,2,… Both the mean and the variance of a Poisson random variable equals to λ, i.e., μ = λ and σ2 = λ
x=max(0,n-μ)2] = Σ(x-μ)2x p(x)N_r)… min(r,n) Where N = total number of elements in the population; r = the number of successes in the N elements; n = the number of elements drawn; x = the number of successes is drawn in the n elements.
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Chapter 5 Uniform distribution -μ)2] = Σ(x-μ)2x p(x) Continuous random variables that appear to have equal likely outcomes over their entire range of possible values possess a uniform
if c
2
2
2
respectively Normal distribution -μ)2] = Σ(x-μ)2x p(x) Some reasons for the popularity of the normal distribution are as follows: (1) The distributions of many random variables such as the height of a group of students, the length of ears of corns, the errors made in measuring a person's blood pressure are approximately normally distributed. (2) The normal distribution is relatively easy to work with mathematically. Many results based on normal distribution may hold well enough for practical usage when samples come from non-μ)2] = Σ(x-μ)2x p(x)normal populations, included populations of discrete random variables. (3) Some measurements do not have a normal distribution, but a simple transformation of the original scale of the measurement may induce approximately normality. (4) Even if the distribution in the original population is far from normal, the distribution of sample means tends to become normally distributed if the sample sizes are sufficiently large.
√^2 π^
−( x − μ )^2
Normal distribution has several very good properties. First, the normal distribution is symmetric. Second, the normal distribution has an unique mode. Second, the normal distribution has a unique mode. Third, the population mean, the population median, and population mode of a normal random are overlap. The standard normal random variable is a normal random variable with mean zero and standard deviation one. If x is a normal random variable with mean μ
is a standard normal random variable. Steps to find probabilities associate with a normal random variable from a normal prob. table: (1). Draw the normal curve and shade the area corresponding to the probability for which you want to find. (2). Convert the x values to standard normal random variable values z using the formula z = (x -μ)2] = Σ(x-μ)2x p(x)u) / s. (3). Use the table IV in Appendix A (or the table on the back of front cover page) to find the area corresponding to the z values. Exponential Distribution: good probability model to study the amount of time or distance between the occurrences of 2 random events Chapter 6 Parameter – the “uknown” numerical values that is used to describe the properties of a population Sample statistics – the computed numerical values from the measurements in a sample Sampling error – error results from using a sample instead of census the population to estimate a population quantity Sampling distribution – sample stats are vary from one sample to another. Therefore, there is a distribution function associated with each sample stat. Point estimator – point estimator of a population parameter is a rule that tell us how to obtain a single number based on the sample data. The resulting number is called a point estimator of this unknown population parameter. A point estimator does not provide the information on the reliability of this estimator. Sample variance is a point estimator of the population variance. Sample standard deviation is a point estimator of the population standard deviation. Unbiasedness – mean of the sampling distribution of stats is called the expectation of this sample stats. If the expectation of a sampling stats is equal to the population parameter this stats is intended to estimate, the stats is an unbiased estimator of this population parameter If the expectation of a sampling statistics is not equal to the population parameter, the statistics is a biased estimator. Note: