Fitting Quadratic Models to Data: Calculating Average Error, Slides of Engineering Physics

How to calculate the average error in fitting a quadratic model to data. The text defines the error as the difference between the actual and predicted values, and the sum of squared errors (sse) as the measure of the model's accuracy. An example with data points from 1950 to 2000 and calculates the average error for the quadratic model.

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2012/2013

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Fitting Quadratic Models to Data

Best Fit

n

SSE

Average Error =

2

• We have learned from previous sections that

the best fitting curve for any given data, is the

curve that gives the smallest average error.

Year t=Reference Time =Year - 1950

Actual Data

Predicted Value

Error= E

1950 0 8 10.543 -2.543 6.

1960 10 45 39.653 5.347 28.

1970 20 90 90.963 -.963 0.

1980 30 160 164.47 -4.47 19.

1990 40 262 260.18 1.820 3.

2000 50 378.09 SSE=

59.277 4

E^2

AverageError = =

5

  • Therefore, the average error is: