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Time EVENTS Foreign Policy Diplomacy Power Polarity Interdependence 1980 Mikhail Gorbachev and the Soviet reformers implemented domestic policy of glasnost and perestroika Per Gorbachev’s suggestion, the permanent members of UN Security Council could become ‘guarantors of regional security’ thus with Afghan as the test case, UN observers monitored and verified the withdrawal of 100k Soviet troops in 1988 and 1989. A feat that would’ve been impossible during the peak of the Cold War Emergence of multiparty system and massive reorientation of the once- monopolistic Communist party (local) 1988 - 1989 Withdrawal of Soviet troops in Afghan USSR retreated from international Soviets agreed to cooperate in multilateral Shania Dejarme 27/6/18 10:51 AM Comment [1]: Glasnost (political openness) opened the door tocriticism of the political system, culminating the emergence of a multipart system and the massive reorientation of the once monopolistic Communist party Perestroika (economic restructuring) undermined the foundation of the planned economy, an essential part of the communist system
Withdrawal of Cuban troops in Angola commitments near it’s borders as well as other’s farther abroad activities to promote regional security. 1989 Fall of the Berlin Wall 1990s Struggle of former allies and enemies to find new identities. The threat of World War 3 vanished and there are questions about the purpose of an organization like NATO Yugoslavia’s violent disintegration despite attempts from the Western world to resolve the conflict peacefully Ethnic tension What is supposed to be the purpose of foreign policy if not to be the deterrent of aggression from other states? US drove NATO to intervene despite European hesitancy and inability to obtain a UN resolution supporting military action. 78 day air war ended with the capitulation of the Serbs and the turning over of the province of Kosovo to International administration US and Israel were unparalleled in their capacity to fight and win interstate wars (military power) but who might these other states be? What role do armed forces specializing in winning interstate wars plat in substate violence? Severely challenged the principles of international law; technically NATO action in Kosovo was a violation of Serbian sovereignty yet NATO leaders held that Serb rapes, looting and murders Shania Dejarme 27/6/18 11:23 AM Comment [2]: Led to a US led war against Serbia to halt the attacks on the Albanian population in Kosovo
1991 Gorbachev resignation Dissolution of the Warsaw Pact 1991 The Japanese economic miracle ended. China after Tiananmen Square inherited Japan's place as a rapidly growing, export-based economy, one defined by the continued pre- eminence of the Chinese Communist Party. The Maastricht Treaty was formulated, creating the structure of the subsequent
European Union 1992 - 93 Disintegration of USSR Era of US primacy in international affairs US has overwhelming military power combined with economic power 1998 Withdrawal of Cuban troops from Angola 2008 Global financial crisis and terrorism Demands multilateral engagement. No single state, however powerful, can remain secure against these threats on its own September 11, 2001 Al Qaeda attack funded by Osama bin Laden on NYC and Washington DC First ever invocation of Article V of the NATO Charter, which declares that an attack on one NATO member to be an attack to all. The US undertook to lead an ad hoc coalition to combat terrorist organizations with global reach Set into motion a US-led global war against terrorism This war on terrorism combines many elements into multiple campaigns with different foci in different countries. Shania Dejarme 27/6/18 11:12 AM Comment [5]: US seemed to be able to impose it’s will despite strong objection from it’s allies. Yet, this era of primacy remains doubtful today because it proves to be insufficient in combating ethnic conflict, civil wars and human rights abuses from happening
Taliban) border bet. Afhanistan and Pakistan’s Northwest Territories. PK was a formal US ally (and sensitive to perceived slights to its sovereignty) terrorists? the terrorist groups (according to US and allies). However, PK lacks the will and capacity to close the border between PK and Afghanistan/ to stop the groups in its territory from attacking Afghan forces and the ISAF (international Security Assistance Force within Afghan) If US uses its own resources, PK will resist. PK controls most the communications routes vital to for the supply of ISAF in Afghanistan, PK has the capacity to cause
more harm to ISAF’s forces there. 2003 US and Great Britain overthrew Iraq’s government Additional justification: promotion of democracy for Iraqi’s 3 main peoples: Kurds, Sunni Arabs and Shia Arabs. The coalition destroyed the Iraqi military and overthrew their government but no WMD were found. 2006 Execution of Saddam Hussein but fighting in Iraq continues to this day Iraq remains riven by sectarian conflict and it’s future stability and the fate of it’s long- suffering people remains unclear Fall of 2008 US national security was severely damaged Led to a international economic contractions that is still being felt today (globally investors small Despite the economic downturn, US military and economic power remain the strongest in the world. Yet, citizens The issue of whether US power will be balanced by an emerging power (or coalition of powers) is also The fate of US banks, brokage firms and insurance companies was intimately linked with those in Europe and in Shania Dejarme 28/6/18 9:59 AM Comment [6]: As a result of relaxed regulatory oversight and enterprenurial inventions of complex new financial instruments, rhe long steady rise in the value of domestic real estate peaked, and the financial underpinnings of housing construction and home ownership collapsed. Shania Dejarme 28/6/18 10:06 AM Comment [7]: Although US military is still held in high esteem, the war in Afghan became widely unpopular.
January 2011 Ben Ali was overthrown and fled to exile in Saudi Arabia Soon, popular protests broke out in Egypt (Hosni Mubarak), Libya (Muammar Qaddafi), Yemen, Bahrain and later Syria (Bashar al Assad) 2011 Arab Spring Remarkable reasons
- Gave lie to the claims of radical and militant Islamists that only through Islamic revolution, rerror attacks on the “West” and the reestablishm ent of strict Islamic law could Arab dictators be overthrown
- The Shania Dejarme 28/6/18 10:10 AM Comment [8]: Taken by surprise and faced a choice of mass murder and imprisonment of protestors or stepping down. Egypt’s military refused to kill protestors, he was forced to step down. Shania Dejarme 28/6/18 10:11 AM Comment [9]: Interdependence: After being forced from power by a rebellion actively supported by France and the US, he was captured and murdered. Shania Dejarme 28/6/18 10:11 AM Comment [10]: Brutally repressed Shania Dejarme 28/6/18 10:12 AM Comment [11]: His efforts to say in power against widespread social protest have led to his forces killing 70,000 of their own citizens
For the states in the New Millenium
- Will transnational issues of the first decade, religion, organized crime, communicable disease, the environment and terrorism become easier to redress or harder?
- Towards what ends should states devote their national energies, military economic, cultural, diplomatic and political?
- Will containing or rooting our terrorism become the new national aim of states?
- Will it be preventing global environmental catastrophe?
- Will it be finding a new way to overcome poverty? It remains to be seen. combined might of secret services and militaries failed to resist the power of young people armed with mobile phones, courage and conviction For the states in the New Millenium
