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Food Security Analysis, Tesine universitarie di Economia Dello Sviluppo

The aim of this work is to provide an overview of the global food situation and prices of the main food commodities produced worldwide. The time span analysed is from 2010/11 to 2019/20.

Tipologia: Tesine universitarie

2019/2020

Caricato il 02/07/2020

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Food Security and Rural Development
The aim of this work is to provide an overview of the global food situation and prices of the
main food commodities produced worldwide. The time span analysed is from 2010/11 to
2019/20.
First, food price indices will be briefly described and commented.
Secondly, global cereal market trends will be analysed, focusing on production, supply,
utilization, ending stocks and trade. Quantities referring to these elements are expressed in
million tonnes.
Finally, a brief description of stock-to-use ratio and stock-to-disappearance ratio will be given
and the two ratios will be computed and analysed for wheat, coarse grains and rice.
Data have been downloaded from FAO CSDB and AMIS, processed on the attached excel files
and main comments, tables and graphs have been reported in this file.
Food price index - FAO
As we can read on World Food Situation website and as we learned during Food Security
lessons, the food price index is the monthly change in the international price of a basket of
commodities. It is obtained by averaging five commodity group price indices and then
weighting them with the average export share of each group on the base-years 2002-2004.
The five commodities are:
Cereal
Vegetable Oil
Dairy
Meat
Sugar
Each category contains some sub-commodities. The diary sector, for example, combines
butter, skim milk powder (SMP), whole milk powder (WMP) and cheese1.
1 http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/
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Food Security and Rural Development

The aim of this work is to provide an overview of the global food situation and prices of the

main food commodities produced worldwide. The time span analysed is from 2010/11 to

First, food price indices will be briefly described and commented.

Secondly, global cereal market trends will be analysed, focusing on production, supply,

utilization, ending stocks and trade. Quantities referring to these elements are expressed in

million tonnes.

Finally, a brief description of stock-to-use ratio and stock-to-disappearance ratio will be given

and the two ratios will be computed and analysed for wheat, coarse grains and rice.

Data have been downloaded from FAO CSDB and AMIS, processed on the attached excel files

and main comments, tables and graphs have been reported in this file.

Food price index - FAO

As we can read on World Food Situation website and as we learned during Food Security

lessons, the food price index is the monthly change in the international price of a basket of

commodities. It is obtained by averaging five commodity group price indices and then

weighting them with the average export share of each group on the base-years 2002-2004.

The five commodities are:

➢ Cereal

➢ Vegetable Oil

➢ Dairy

➢ Meat

➢ Sugar

Each category contains some sub-commodities. The diary sector, for example, combines

butter, skim milk powder (SMP), whole milk powder (WMP) and cheese^1.

(^1) http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/

As reported by the FAO database, the food price index considers 73 price quotes for food

goods^2.

An analysis of the food price indices in nominal terms has been conducted for the different

categories.

As shown by the graph below (fig. 1), in 2011 sugar price index (orange line) reached a peak,

compared to the other commodities, rising from 188.0 to 229.9 points, Among the causes

were the unfavourable weather conditions of that season which led to an increase in prices

followed by a drastic drop in harvests, especially in Brazil which is the main sugar producer

country in the world^3.

After year 2011, which records a general rise in food prices and an increase in food price

indices, the graph shows a constant drop in cereals and vegetable oils prices with a related

decrease in their indices. Just to mention one example, the cereal index (purple line) fell from

191.9 to 162.4 points between 2014-2015. This is due to several factors such as: high

inventory levels, lower fuel prices and transportation costs and the power of US dollar^4.

According to the FAO report, falling prices have brought benefits in terms of food security,

encouraging households to purchase more food quotas^5.

(^2) http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/ (^3) http://www.fao.org/news/story/it/item/81577/icode/ (^4) http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/335736/icode/ (^5) http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/335736/icode/ Figure 1 – Annual Food Price Indices

The graph (fig. 2) shows the trends of the global cereal market with respect to production,

utilization, supply and ending stock over the period 2010-2019.

In 2012 data record a slight decline in the global cereal production. The overall decrease is

due to a reduction in wheat and coarse grains production with respect to the previous year

20116. Instead, the trend of the global rice crop remained stable. Unfavourable weather

conditions are the main cause for this decline. In fact, severe droughts hit the United States, a

large part of Europe and central Asia that year^7. In that year, we also notice a reduction of

world cereal ending stocks that, according to FAO, is to be mostly on account of reduced stocks

in the CIS countries (because of disappointing harvests), China (driven by strong domestic use),

the EU (following a decline in production) and the United States (reflecting a surge in domestic

feed use)^8.

In 2013 we notice a growth of global cereal production, driven by an increase in all the three

crops^9. This growth translated in a recovery of the global supply (+ 8.13 percent). From that

year onwards the supply trend shows a slight but steady growth.

In 2018 dry and hot weather conditions^10 caused a reduction by 1.8% percent in the global

cereal production, compared to the previous year.

WORLD CEREAL MARKET

Year Production Utilization Supply Ending stocks 2010 2264 2282 2850 566 2011 2362 2326 2928 597 2012 2323 2337 2920 594 2013 2563 2454 3157 674 2014 2614 2513 3287 771 2015 2589 2556 3360 799 2016 2669 2621 3468 846 2017 2704 2657 3550 886 2018 2656 2689 3542 869 2019 2721 2722 3590 861 Source: FAO CSDB

During the time span analysed, the world cereal utilization has grown slowly but steadily,

showing no peaks nor drops.

From 2012 world stocks experienced a constant growth. This positive trend is interrupted in

year 2019.

(^6) See fig. 7 – Cereals Production (^7) FAO, Crop Prospects and Food Situation, No. 3, October 2012 (^8) FAO, Crop Prospects and Food Situation, No. 4, December 2012 (^9) See fig. 7 – Cereals Production (^10) FAO, Crop Prospects and Food Situation, No. 3, September 2018

Table 1 - World Cereal Market

Table 3 - Wheat, Coarse Grain and Rice SUR

Stock-to-use ratio

According to the definition given by J. Womach, the stock-to-use ratio (SUR) is a “ convenient

measure of supply and demand interrelationships of commodities. This ratio indicates the level

of carryover stock for any given commodity as a percentage of the total use of the commodity ”^16.

The data regarding world ending stocks and world domestic utilization have been

downloaded from AMIS database through the option “custom query”; commodities selected

were wheat, coarse grains and rice, years selected were from 2010/11 to 2019/20; region

selected was “World” and elements selected were ending stocks and utilization. Once

downloaded, data were processed on Excel using the following computation:

World Ending Stocks

World Utilization

The value has been turned into a percentage.

All the tables with SUR values for all years and commodities, calculated on the Excel file are

reported in this file. In addition, some examples of the detailed SUR computation of three

different years and for the three different commodities are brought.

WHEAT

Year Utilization^ Ending stocks^ SUR %

Source : AMIS-FAO (^16) J. Womach, Report for Congress: Agriculture: a glossary of terms, programs and laws, 2005

Sur wheat 2017: Ending stocks (2017)/ 287.6/ Utilization (2018): 751. = 0.3825 → 38.3% COARSE GRAINS Year Utilization Ending stocks SUR % 2010/11 1,162.4 232.9 (^) 20. 2011/12 1,165.5 246.9 (^) 20. 2012/13 1,179.6 246.8 (^) 19. 2013/14 1,275.5 302.6 (^) 23. 2014/15 1,311.5 369.4 (^) 27. 2015/16 1,341.8 384.6 (^) 27. 2016/17 1,381.6 406.1 (^) 28. 2017/18 1,411.9 422.4 (^) 29. 2018/19 1,428.1 414.8 (^) 28. 2019/20 1,446.9 405.6 (^) 26. Source : AMIS-FAO SUR coarse grains 2013: Ending stocks (2013)/ 302.6/ Utilization (2014): 1311. = 0.2307 → 23.1% RICE Year Utilization Ending stocks SUR % 2010/11 459.9 130.0 (^) 27. 2011/12 467.7 146.5 (^) 30. 2012/13 474.9 161.5 (^) 33. 2013/14 486.7 170.9 (^) 34. 2014/15 493.6 172.9 (^) 34. 2015/16 497.0 171.3 (^) 34. 2016/17 501.4 172.5 (^) 34. 2017/18 505.6 175.9 (^) 34. 2018/19 509.1 183.1 (^) 35. 2019/20 513.4 182.6 (^) 35. Source: AMIS-FAO SUR rice 2018: Ending stocks (2018)/ 183.1/ Utilization (2019): 513. =

Vietnam. Elements selected are the ones needed to compute the ratio, that is Closing Stocks,

Domestic Utilization and Exports and Season selected was 2010/2011.

First of all, Closing Stocks of every country and for each commodity have been summed up,

obtaining Closing Stocks of Major Exporters.

Secondly, Domestic Utilization and Exports of every country and for each commodity have

been summed together getting Domestic Utilization + Exports of Major Exporters.

To obtain SDR the following computation was made:

Closing stocks of major exporters

Domestic Utilization + Exports of M. E.

The value has been turned into a percentage.

The computation of SDR for year 2010 is provided below. To speed up the analysis, SDRs for

the years 2011-2019 have been taken from FAO CSDB.

SDR rice 2010: Major exporters' closing stocks 33.69/ Major exporters' domestic utilization + exports 153. = 0.219207 →21.92%* *Data for Pakistan are missing from AMIS database. For this reason, SDR computed with available data slightly differs from the one provided by FAO CSDB. For a more accurate analysis, SDRs from FAO CSDB have been considered. SDR wheat 2010: Major exporter's closing stocks 2010 74.92/ Major exporters' domestic utilization + exports 2010 342. = 0.218508 → 21.8% SDR coarse grains 2010: Major exporters ending stocks/ 76.89/ Major exporters domestic utilization + exports 682 = 0.112741935 →11.27% Table 4 – Major Exporters’ SDR

MAJOR EXPORTERS' SDR

Year Wheat^ Coarse Grains^ Rice

2010/11 21.85%^ 11.27%^ 21.33%

2011/12 18.76%^ 11.31%^ 25.23%

2012/13 15.10%^ 9.00%^ 27.96%

2013/14 16.00%^ 11.07%^ 29.03%

2014/15 18.85%^ 14.90%^ 24.60%

2015/16 18.00%^ 13.41%^ 19.69%

2016/17 19.80%^ 14.80%^ 18.89%

2017/18 20.96%^ 15.71%^ 18.11%

2018/19 17.77%^ 16.10%^ 22.56%

2019/20 16.26%^ 15.31%^ 24.86%

Source: FAO CSDB

As we learned in class, stock-to-disappearance ratio is an index of the export availability of a

given commodity on the world market. An increase in SDR means higher export availability of

the cereal. On the other hand, a decrease in it highlight a lower availability.

The graph (fig. 6) shows major exporters’ stock-to-disappearance ratios of wheat, coarse

grains and rice.

It is interesting to notice that, during the period analysed, SDRs of wheat and coarse grains

follows the general trends of production. In 2012, for example, a contraction in wheat and

coarse grains production resulted in a decline of their major exporters’ SDRs. Again, in 2017,

when both outputs reached their peaks, an increase in the relative SDRs is recorded. This

could mean that, production peaks of wheat and coarse grains led to an increase in the

availability of their export and a decline in their outputs results in the contraction of their

export availability.

With respect to rice, things are different. It is not possible to highlight any similarity between

the commodity output, which is relatively stable during the period analysed, and its major

exporters’ SDR, which, on the contrary, is subject to fluctuations, showing a peak in 2013, a

subsequent drop until 2017 and then a recovery.

Figure 6 – Wheat, Coarse Grains and Rice SDR Figure 7 – Cereals Production 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/ 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Wheat, Coarse Grains and Rice SDR

Wheat Coarse Grains Rice

Conclusions

This work provides insights into the global cereal market, trying to explain the reasons behind

the main changes of the trends.

Unfortunately, the last year analysed is 2019/20 and thus, it was not possible to assess the

consequences (and the intensity) of covid-19 emergency on market trends.

Latest projections in previous FAO reports estimating 2020/21 cereal market trends will

probably be far unrealistic due to the unpredictable events and all the resulting policy

measures aimed at containing the spread of the virus. In particular, limits to transports and

free movement, border closures and potential decrease in labour-force may have important

implications for the global food market.

Just think about the current flour and yeast shortages in supermarkets, at least rising home

baking might contrast the boredom in times of quarantine…

Bibliography

 Agricultural market information system (AMIS) database

http://www.amis-outlook.org/

 FAO, Crop Prospects and Food Situation, No. 3, October 2012

 FAO, Crop Prospects and Food Situation, No. 4, December 2012

 FAO, Crop Prospects and Food Situation, No. 3, September 2018

 FAO, Crop Prospects and Food Situation, No.4, December 2018

 FAO, Food Outlook Biannual Report Global Food Markets, 2018

 J. Womach, Report for Congress: Agriculture: a glossary of terms, programs and laws,

 FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief (CSDB)

http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/

 FAO Food Price Index

http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/

 FAO Food Price Index

http://www.fao.org/news/story/it/item/81577/icode/

 FAO Food Prices lower for longer

http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/335736/icode/