Confounding and Interaction Effects in Regression Analysis, Study notes of Statistics for Psychologists

Confounding and interaction effects in regression analysis. Confounding occurs when the addition of an extra variable significantly alters existing coefficients, while interaction effects represent the unique impact of a combination of variables. How to test for interaction effects using sas proc glm and reg, and how to identify confounding variables by comparing full and reduced regression models. Precision evaluation is also covered, which involves assessing the interval around the regression coefficient to determine the best model.

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Ch. 11. Confounding and Interaction in Regression
I. Introduction
A. Confounding
1. Regression coefficients developed with a set of X
variables are invariant because they are computed
with Type II SS.
2. If the addition of extra X variable(s)
dramatically changes the existing coefficients,
then the extra X variable(s) is called
confounding.
3. The criterion for "dramatic change" is
subjective.
4. The X variable(s) which is NOT a part of
interaction effect should be considered for
confounding.
B. Interaction
1. The unique effect of the combination of two or
more X variables independent of the effect of
individual X variables.
2. The effect of one X variable depends on the level
of the other X variable (e.g.).
3. We can test any type of interaction effects in
regression.
II. Interaction Effect
A. For a given number of X variables (p), we can have a
maximum of (2p - 1) - p interaction effects if the
number is smaller than n - 1 where n is sample size.
B. If we have four(4) X variables (X1-X4), we may have 11
interaction effects assuming we have over 16 subjects.
Fist order: X1X2, X1X3, X1X4, X2X3, X2X4, X3X4
Second order: X1X2X3, X1X2X4, X2X3X4
Third order: X1X2X3X4
C. In practice, it is very difficult to interpret any
interaction effects beyond the second order.
D. Using human judgment we typically select some of the
interaction effects for testing.
E. For model testing, use PROC GLM and test for X1*X2 or
any other product form.
F. For model development, use PROC REG and create a new
variable for the product form (e.g., create X12=X1*X2
and use X12 for X1*X2).
G. We test the highest order interaction effect first, if
it is significant, we are in trouble. If it is NOT
significant, then, go ahead to test the next highest
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Ch. 11. Confounding and Interaction in Regression

I. Introduction A. Confounding

  1. Regression coefficients developed with a set of X variables are invariant because they are computed with Type II SS.
  2. If the addition of extra X variable(s) dramatically changes the existing coefficients, then the extra X variable(s) is called confounding.
  3. The criterion for "dramatic change" is subjective.
  4. The X variable(s) which is NOT a part of interaction effect should be considered for confounding. B. Interaction
  5. The unique effect of the combination of two or more X variables independent of the effect of individual X variables.
  6. The effect of one X variable depends on the level of the other X variable (e.g.).
  7. We can test any type of interaction effects in regression.

II. Interaction Effect A. For a given number of X variables (p), we can have a maximum of (2p^ - 1) - p interaction effects if the number is smaller than n - 1 where n is sample size. B. If we have four(4) X variables (X1-X4), we may have 11 interaction effects assuming we have over 16 subjects. Fist order: X1X2, X1X3, X1X4, X2X3, X2X4, X3X Second order: X1X2X3, X1X2X4, X2X3X Third order: X1X2X3X C. In practice, it is very difficult to interpret any interaction effects beyond the second order. D. Using human judgment we typically select some of the interaction effects for testing. E. For model testing, use PROC GLM and test for X1X2 or any other product form. F. For model development, use PROC REG and create a new variable for the product form (e.g., create X12=X1X and use X12 for X1*X2).

G. We test the highest order interaction effect first, if it is significant, we are in trouble. If it is NOT significant, then, go ahead to test the next highest

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order, and so on. H. More details will be discussed in 6290.

III. Confounding Effect A. Assume all suspicious X variables for confounding are NOT involved in the interaction effect. B. Procedure

  1. Run two models: Full and Reduced (Crude).
  2. Full model includes all components.
  3. Reduced model does not include the suspicious X variable(s) (includes only the study variable).
  4. Compare two models in terms of regression coefficient of the study X variable (X1).
  5. If we find b 1 dramatically changed due to the extra X variable(s), the extra X variable(s) is "confounding" X1.
  6. No statistical test was necessary for confounding.

IV. Precision Evaluation A. When we have several sets of suspicious X variables and all of them give us different b 1 s for X1, we need to consider another criterion for the best model. B. The precision can be evaluated by checking the interval (95% CI) about b 1. C. The model which gives us the smallest interval will be selected. D. Formula for CI about b 1.

95% CI = b 1 ± tα/2 (SE),

where, tα/2 = t-critical value with df of df(error).

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