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CHAPTER IV: RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS. 4.1 Results. 4.1.1 Introduction. This chapter contains detailed presentation and discussion of data analysis and the ...
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This thesis is my original work and has not been presented for a degree in any other university or any other award.
Nyakundi Hellen Mwango ( I57/5672/03 ) Date
We confirm that the work reported in this thesis was carried out by the candidate under our supervision.
Dr. Isaac Mwanzo Department of Public Health, Date School of Health Sciences‟ Kenyatta University
Dr. Andre Yitambe Department of Public Health, Date School of Health Sciences, Kenyatta University
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I would like to thank several people who have contributed to the successful completion of this work: First and foremost, grateful thanks are extended to my university supervisors, Dr IsaacMwanzo, Dr Andre Yitambe and Mr. Steven Mogere, who guided me throughout the study. The criticism, comments and advice from other members of staff in the department and classmates at different stages of the thesis are also highly appreciated. Gratitude goes to the field assistants and all who took part in the field work. I would also like to show appreciation to the residents of Nyando District for their hospitality and willingness to participate in the study. Special thanks to my family: my mum and dad for providing me with everything I needed to ma their intain my direction and stay focusedencouragement; and my daughter Chudia,; my siblings: Rose, Ben, William and Ruth, for for being a constant source of joy and inspiration. This investigation received further financial support from the Pro I am very grateful for the scholarship. Above all, thanks to God for His grace, strengthVention Consortium and and sustenance.
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Declaration ......................................................................................................................ii Dedication ..................................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................ iv Table of contents ............................................................................................................. v List of tables .................................................................................................................viii List of figures ................................................................................................................. ix List of pictures ................................................................................................................ x Abbreviations and acronyms .......................................................................................... xi Abstract ......................................................................................................................... xii CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION .................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background information ............................................................................................ 1 1.2 The problem statement .............................................................................................. 4 1.3 Purpose of the study .................................................................................................. 5 1.4 Study objectives ........................................................................................................ 6 1.5 The Study was guided by the following research questions: ....................................... 7 1.6 Null Hypothesis ......................................................................................................... 7 1.7 Significance of the study (rationale) ........................................................................... 7 1.8 Scope of study and limitations ................................................................................... 7 1.9 Assumptions .............................................................................................................. 8 1.10 Conceptual framework ............................................................................................. 8 1.11 Theoretical framework ........................................................................................... 10 1.12 Operational definition of terms .............................................................................. 13 CHAPTER II: LITERATURE REVIEW ....................................................................... 16 2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 16 2.2 Nature of flood risks ................................................................................................ 16 2.3 Perception of flood risks to public health ................................................................. 18 2.4 Vulnerability to Flood Risks .................................................................................... 20 2.5 Behavioural response to flood risks ......................................................................... 21 2.5.1 Coping mechanism ............................................................................................... 22
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Photo 2.1: Showing the general state of roads at onset, during and soon after the flood season………………………………………………………... Photo 3.1: Selection of participants for FGD discussion (Chief‟s meeting)………...….. Photo 4.2 : Picture showing a house with a raised floor and a boat on stand by for evacuation of people and property during extreme flood conditions……. 58 Photo 4.3 : Picture shows harvesting of rainwater into a water tank; a coping mechanism to address water problems ……………………….…………...6 2 Photo 4.4: A woman in Ayweyo receives 2 Kgs. of maize as an incentive for digging/clearing a water channel. This is a government initiative: The Food for Work Program……………………...………………………...7 3
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APFM - Associated Program on Flood Management APELL - Awareness and Preparedness for Emergencies at the Local Level CHWs - Community Health Workers FGD - Focus Group Discussion GOK - Government of Kenya GWP - Global Water Partnership ICLR - Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IDNDR - International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction IRIN - Integrated Regional Information Network IRMED - Institute for Resource Management and Economic Development ISDR - International Strategy for Disaster Reduction IUCN - International Union for Conservation of Nature LVEMP - Lake Victoria Environnent Management Programme NGO - Non Governmental Organization SPSS - Statistical Package of Social Sciences TEK - Traditional Ecological Knowledge UNDP - United Nations Development Program UNEP - United Nations Environmental Program WHO - World Health Organization WMO - World Meteorological Organization
1.1 Background information Flooding is one of the most widespread of all the hydro meteorological hazards causing huge annual losses in terms of damage and disruption to economic livelihoods, businesses, infrastructure, services and public health (Few et al., 2004).
Table 2.1: Types of floods and their characteristic impacts
Type Duration Characteristic impacts Predictable regular flooding
Up to 3 months
Blocks access. Damage and displacement of population often relatively low depending on levels of protection Increased size of regular flooding
Up to 6 months
Blocks access to many areas. Greater potential for infrastructure damage, livelihoods impacts, and large displacement of populations. Flash flooding A few days to weeks
Rapid cresting often with little warning. High velocity flood flows can destroy infrastructure. Population displacement often localized. Urban flooding A few days to weeks
Can be rapid-onset, often coming flash floods in urban rivers or from saturation or blockage of urban drainage systems. Potential for infrastructure damage affecting larger service area. Population displacement often localized. Coastal flooding A few days Often combined with wind damage from storms -. Damage and displacement along coastline with extent depending on storm size. Slow-onset from sustained rainfalls
3 - 6 months Bock access. Depending on season, damage to crops may be significant. Population displacement limited and may be dependent on food security. Adopted from McCluskey, 2001, cited in ProVention (2008)
Flood disasters are on the rise and in the past decade, on average more than 140 plus million people have been affected each year with annual mortality estimated at 25, (World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2005). Of all natural disaster deaths, 97% occur in developing countries. Asia and Africa are the most affected continents with floods accounting for half of these disasters. Much of Africa is vulnerable to flooding with episodes of floods accounting for 26% of total disaster occurrences (Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction (ICLR), 2004).
In Kenya, many parts of the country experience unexpectedly heavy rainfall in mid-April which continues through the end of May and from September to November. The areas that are most prone to flood disasters are the Lake Victoria Basin, comprising of Nyando, Migori, Kisumu and Busia Districts; the Tana River plains and other parts of Eastern and Coastal provinces (Mungai, 2002).
Floods in Nyando are caused by rivers overflowing their banks due to their carrying flows in excess of their carrying capacity within their banks. This generally happens during the long and short rains, especially after spells of intense and heavy rainfalls in the catchments of the rivers. The upper reaches of Nyando are in Kericho and Nandi Districts where annual rainfall is high and it is this rain that causes the most devastating of the floods in the basin. The flat terrain reduced vegetation cover and predominantly black cotton soils found in the water sheds do not allow quick infiltration thus increasing surface runoff which causes flash floods. The situation is aggravated by gulley formation due to soil erosion, poor land use and deforestation (Onyango, 2005).
impact. Vulnerable people individually and collectively develop their own means, resources and strategies to cope with flooding. Social capital e.g. reciprocal support among neighbours, support from immediate family members and wider kinship networks is a vital safety net for people in coping with recurrent flooding. Shahaduzzaman, (1999) notes: “how people respond will be determined by their personal strengths, those of their families, friends and community, and the resources which they have or receive.
The fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007 predicts that heavy precipitation events, which are likely to increase in frequency, will augment flood risks. These floods will affect lives and in human settlements in all areas, e.g. coastal zones, river deltas and mountains. With increasing climatic variability ensuring that water related disasters will not abate any time soon, actions designed to strengthen resilience of communities living in flood-prone locations will be increasingly important in reducing the human burden from flooding. In this context, a focus on the role of community perceptions and responses is crucial in developing a comprehensive understanding of societal vulnerability and how social processes play a decisive role in shaping coping capacities (Few et al,. 2004).
1.2 The problem statement Flooding is a recurrent phenomenon in Nyando District. Population pressure, climate variability, and environmental degradation on flood plain have grown and the risks that floods pose have become increasingly evident. As per the assessment made after recent floods, in the Kano plains, the average annual damage is about US$ 850,000 with annual
relief and rehabilitation measures costing US$ 600,000 (Associated Programme on Flood Management (APFM), 2004).
In the study area, interventions to address the problem of flooding over the years have not produced desired results. This is partly because of the conventional conceptualization and analysis of the flood problem that has ignored local perceptions and experiences and historical processes that are the triggering factors of flood vulnerability.
There has been relatively little scientific research characterizing health outcomes of flood hazards and similarly, little social science research targeting how vulnerable populations perceive, respond to flood risks. There is also a growing frequency of small and medium scale disasters related to patterns of human environmental intervention, indicating that disaster risk is accumulating. These disasters have a larger cumulative impact but are generally ignored by both national and international disaster management or development policies and represent a challenge for disaster risk reduction.
1.3 Purpose of the study A major part of improving the management of flood disasters is by gaining a more detailed understanding of the issues at hand. Research is a vital element in this process. Much of the existing literature on flood management in Nyando District has explored the physical aspects of their nature and occurrence (Mungai et. al. , 2002; 2004 ; Walsh et al., ; 2004; the Integrated Regional Information Network (IRIN), 2005). However, there is also a growing literature that is examining the issue from a social perspective with calls in
1.5 The Study was guided by the following research questions: i. What is the existing traditional knowledge on flood forecasting and early warning of flood risks? ii. How do Nyando communities perceive flood risks? iii. What are the existing response mechanisms to flood risks? iv. What is the attitude of Nyando communities towards external support systems?
1.6 Null Hypothesis Level of exposure to risk does not influence awareness and use of traditional knowledge, perceptions of flood risks, response mechanisms and attitude towards external support of Nyando communities.
1.7 Significance of the study (rationale) The potential utility of the study is to reduce vulnerability; to strengthen capacity of the affected communities to respond more effectively to flood emergencies and to provide insights into possibility of a more integrated approach to flood prevention and coping with loss.. This study is envisaged to benefit the following groups of people: rural communities living in flood prone areas, disaster managers, policy makers, researchers and scholars, and funding agencies.
1.8 Scope of study and limitations i. Kenya has experienced several flood disasters that have occurred in different parts of the country but the present study concentrated on Nyando District with a
population of 332,137 (Kenya, 2002-2008). This was necessitated by the available resources and the time frame within which the project was to be completed. ii. The study was not connected to any concrete flood but to related flood experience/s by the respondents. iii. Conclusions are based on information elicited from the fieldwork. iv. Results obtained may not be generalized to other areas when assessing data and making interpretations that would be appropriate across broader scales.
1.9 Assumptions This study was based on the assumptions that:
1.10 Conceptual framework This study used a conceptual model adapted and modified from Handmer and Penning- Roswell, (1990). In this model, modifications were made to focus on the inter- relationships between human responses to a natural hazard and how the perceived threat influences subsequent actions.
This model helps to illustrate why people continue to live in risk-prone areas. How they assess risk is influenced by several factor; benefits of living in a flood plain, lack of
