EXPERIMENTAL ERRORS, Lecture notes of Statistics

Calculate the mean (x) and the relative standard deviation. (RSD). sample # ppm Fe. 1. 5.01. 2. 4.98. 3. 4.99. 4. 5.00.

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Chapter 3
EXPERIMENTAL
ERRORS
1
Other Common Analytical Terms
1. Precision refers to reproducibility of repetitive measurements
of equivalent analyte solutions (e.g. aliquots)
vs. Accuracy, which indicates how close the measured
analyte concentration is to the true analyte concentration
in the sample.
Often expressed as (absolute) standard deviation, s,
or relative standard deviation, RSD
Often expressed as bias (by comparison with standard
reference materials)
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Chapter 3

EXPERIMENTAL

ERRORS

1

Other Common Analytical Terms

  1. Precision refers to reproducibility of repetitive measurements of equivalent analyte solutions (e.g. aliquots)

vs. Accuracy , which indicates how close the measured analyte concentration is to the true analyte concentration in the sample.

 Often expressed as (absolute) standard deviation , s ,

or relative standard deviation , RSD

 Often expressed as bias (by comparison with standard

reference materials)

2

Neither A, but not P A & P P, but not A

Accuracy vs. Precision

 Results close together, but far from true value

 Results close together and close to true value

3

  1. Sensitivity (of an instrument) – The smallest amount of a substance that can be detected by an instrument

 However, the higher the precision , the greater is the

probability of obtaining the true value.

 It helps to get highly reproducible (highly precise)

replicate measurements

 Good precision does not assure accuracy

Analytical Terms – Cont.

4

Data handling and error analysis:

The results are back from the lab. Now what do we do?

Accuracy = closeness of result to the accepted or true value; measured with:

Precision refers to the reproducibility of results; measured with:

 standard deviation (s) , or

 relative standard deviation , RSD

 bias

7

Bias is a quantitative term describing the difference between the measured quantity (or its mean) and its true or known value.

Bias: A measure of accuracy

Bias = measured value – known value

8

Ways of expressing precision

  1. Relative standard deviation, RSD

where x = individual measurements; = mean of all measurements and n = total number of measurements

X

  1. ( Absolute ) standard deviation, s

s RSD = X

9

x = 5.00 4

Example : Determining the precision of a set of measurements

The following data were obtained for the determination of iron in a vitamin tablet using flame atomic absorption spectrometry. Calculate the mean (x) and the relative standard deviation (RSD).

sample # ppm Fe 1 5. 2 4. 3 4. 4 5. 5 5.

10

Accuracy is more difficult to measure

than precision. WHY?

 The true or accepted value is not always available.

 However, remember that the higher the precision, the greater is the probability of obtaining an accurate result

13

Chapter 4

STATISTICS

14

Scenario:

The presence of dissolved copper in drinking

water is typically due to corrosion of household

plumbing systems. Its levels in drinking water is

regulated by the EPA because of its health effects,

such as gastrointestinal distress and liver or kidney

damage

The maximum contaminant level for

Cu is 1.3 ppm (or 1300 ppb)

(http://www.epa.gov/safewater/contaminants/index.html#mcls).

15

The maximum contaminant level for Cu is 1.3 ppm. The following data were obtained from the analysis of water samples collected over a 5-day period.

Sample ID

Amount of Cu in mg/L Day 1 1. Day 2 1. Day 3 1. Day 4 1. Day 5 1.

Based on the 5-day mean copper l evels, is this water safe for drinking?

Mean ppm Cu = 1.

16

Distribution of Experimental Results

Scenario: Let’s say the analysis of the same sample of water for Cu was repeated 100 times by atomic absorption spectroscopy. Let’s also limit errors to random error.

Question: How would the results look like?

 Results will tend to cluster around the mean value for Cu levels

 Gaussian distribution (Figure 4-1, p. 69)  Increase repetitions, smoother curve

19

Gaussian Distribution

Figure 4-1, p. 69. Bar graph and Gaussian curve for lifetimes of hypothetical light bulbs

 Bell-shaped  Normal distribution of variation in expt’l data

20

Gaussian Distribution (Cont.)

In real life, we repeat experiments 3-4 times , not 100 times!

Small set of results

Estimate statistical parameters

Large set of results

Describes

Allows estimation of statistical behavior from a small number of repetitions (analysis) 21

Characteristics of the Gaussian Curve

(Smooth orange line)

 Sum of measured values, xi, divided by the number of measurements, n

1. Mean, x (also called average )

22

1

n i i

X

X

n

=^ =

25

Gaussian Distribution

Gaussian distribution. Image available at http://introcs.cs.princeton.edu/java/11gaussian/

Gaussian curve and standard deviation – Cont.

Practical significance

Method A Method B

 Comparing two methods (and two ) to measure % Fe in ore

s 0.8 1.

x 32.4 31.

Interpretation of results  About 68 % of measurements from Method A will fall between 31.6 - 33.2 (vs. 30.7 - 32.9 from Method B)

 95.5 % of measurements from Method A will fall between 30.8 - 34.0 (vs. 29.6 - 34.0 from Method B) 26

Parameters for Finite vs. Infinite Set of Data

Finite set Infinite set

Sample mean, x Standard deviation, s

Population mean, μ Population std. dev., σ

NOTE: μ and σ cannot be measured, but …

 … as the number of measurements increases values of x and s approach μ and σ

27

Other Statistical Parameters

Degrees of freedom, n – 1

 Used in the calc. of s

Variance, s^2 ( or σ^2 )

 Squared std. dev.

Relative standard deviation, RSD (or the coefficient of variation )  Std. dev. expressed as percentage of the mean

Confidence interval

 An expression which states that the true mean, μ, is likely to lie within a certain distance from the measured mean,

28

31

n – 1 =

mean (^) 0.15 (0.148) stdev 0.03 (0.028) deg. freedom 5.00 sqrt (n) = 2. t at 90 % CI 2. t at 99 % CI 4.

CI (90% ) = 0.148 +/- (2.0150.028)/sqrt(6) = 0.148 +/- 0. = 0.15 +/- 0. CI (99% ) = 0.148 +/- (4.0320.028)/2. = 0.148 +/- 0. = 0.15 +/- 0.

WORK:

95 % chance that the true mean lies within the range 0.12 % to 0.18 % (of additive) 99 % chance that the true mean lies within the range 0.10 % to 0.20 % (of additive) 32

Confidence Intervals -Cont.

 A closer look at the meaning of confidence interval

 50 % C.I: There is a 50 % chance that true mean, μ , lies between 12.4 to 12.7 % carbs

 90 % C.I: There is a 90 % chance that true mean, μ , lies between 12.1 to 12.9 % carbs

33

Comparing Means with Student’s t

 Allows for comparison of two sets of measurements (e.g. using 2 different methods) to decide whether or not they are the same

 Recall the following results for measuring % Fe in ore using two different methods

Method A Method B

s 0.8 1.

x 32.4 31.

 Are the results from the 2 methods different? (i.e. Are the two means different? )

 Perform a t-test

34

where

s 12 (n 1 –1) + s 22 (n 2 -1) n 1 + n 2 - 2

spooled =

NOTE: spooled is a pooled standard deviation from both sets of data

Step 2: Compare tcalc with tabulated t (Table 4-2) for n 1 + n 2 – 2 degrees of freedom.

 If tcalc is greater than ttable at the 95 % confidence level, the two results are considered to be different

37

Case 2 – Cont.

Exercise: Determine if the two means from the measurements below are significantly different. Assume that each method consisted of 5 replicate measurements.

Method A Method B

s 0.8 1.

x 32.4 31.

38

 Can be performed with Excel (Case 2 only) – read Section 4-5, p. 82, t tests with a spreadsheet”

Cases: The Student’s t – Cont.

3. Comparing individual differences (Paired t Test)

 Two different methods are used to make single measurements on several different samples (NOTE: There are no replicate measurements)

 Answers the question: Is method A systematically different from method B?

 Not as commonly used in chem labs as Case 2

 For more information on Case 3, read p. 78

39

Grubb’s Test for an Outlier

Outlier = a data point that is far from other points

Given twelve results for determining the mass % Zn in galvanized nail:

Outlier?

Q. Should the reading 7.8 be discarded?  We can’t simply discard bad data  But we can perform a Grubbs test to determine if an outlier can be discarded (^40)

Mass % Zn Mass % Zn 10.2 10. 10.8 9. 11.6 11. 9.9 9. 9.4 10. 7.8 11.