Lecture4.pdf, Lecture notes of Economic statistics

Variance, standard deviation ... Range and Inter-quartile range are relatively easy to compute. ... Definition: The Sample Standard Deviation is defined by:.

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Measure of Variability
(Dispersion, Spread)
Variance, standard deviation
Range
Inter-Quartile Range
Pseudo-standard deviation
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0 5 10 15 20 25
Variability
Range
Definition
Let min = the smallest observation
Let max = the largest observation
Then Range =max -min
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0 5 10 15 20 25
Range
Inter-Quartile Range (IQR)
Definition
Let Q1= the first quartile,
Q3= the third quartile
Then the
Inter-Quartile Range
= IQR = Q3-Q1
pf3
pf4
pf5
pf8
pf9
pfa
pfd
pfe
pff

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Measure of Variability

(Dispersion, Spread)

  • Variance, standard deviation
  • Range
  • Inter-Quartile Range
  • Pseudo-standard deviation

0.02 0 0.040.

0.080.

0.120.

0 5 10 15 20 25

Variability

Range

Definition Let min = the smallest observation Let max = the largest observation Then Range =max - min

0.02 0 0.040.

0.080.

0.120.

0 5 10 15 20 25

Range

Inter-Quartile Range (IQR)

Definition Let Q 1 = the first quartile, Q 3 = the third quartile Then the Inter-Quartile Range = IQR = Q 3 - Q 1

0

0 5 Q 1 10 Q 315 20 25

25% 25%

50%

Inter-Quartile Range

Example The data Verbal IQ on n = 23 students arranged in increasing order is: 80 82 84 86 86 89 90 94 94 95 95 96 99 99 102 102 104 105 105 109 111 118 119

Example The data Verbal IQ on n = 23 students arranged in increasing order is: 80 82 84 86 86 89 90 94 94 95 95 96 99 99 102 102 104 105 105 109 111 118 119

min = 80 Q 1 = 89 Q 2 = 96 Q^3 = 105 max = 119

The numbers

are called deviations from the the mean

d (^) 1 = x 1 − x d (^) 2 = x 2 − x d (^) 3 = x 3 − x M d (^) n = xnx

The sum

is called the sum of squares of deviations from the the mean. Writing it out in full:

or

∑ ∑^ (^ )

= =

n i i

n i

di x x 1

2 1

2

2 2 3 2 2 2 d 1 (^) + d + d +L+ dn

( x 1 − x ) 2 +( x 2 − x )^2 +L+( xn − x )^2

The Sample Variance

Is defined as the quantity:

and is denoted by the symbol

1

2 1

2

= = n

x x n

d

n i i

n i i

s^2

Example Let x 1 , x 2 , x 3 , x 3 , x 4 , x 5 denote a set of 5 denote the set of numbers in the following table. (^) i 1 2 3 4 5

xi 10 15 21 7 13

Then = x 1 + x 2 + x 3 + x 4 + x 5 = 10 + 15 + 21 + 7 + 13 = 66 and

5 i 1 i

x

n

x x x x x n

x x n n

n

= ∑ i =^1 i^ =^1 +^2 +^3 +K+ −^1 +

  1. 2 5 =^66 =

The deviations from the mean d 1 , d 2 , d 3 , d 4 , d 5 are given in the following table.

i 1 2 3 4 5

xi 10 15 21 7 13

di -3.2 1.8 7.8 -6.2 -0.

Interpretations of s

  • In Normal distributions
    • Approximately 2/3 of the observations will lie within one standard deviation of the mean
    • Approximately 95% of the observations lie within two standard deviations of the mean
    • In a histogram of the Normal distribution, the standard deviation is approximately the distance from the mode to the inflection point

0

0 5 10 15 20 25

s

Inflection point

Mode

s

2/

s

2s

Example

A researcher collected data on 1500 males aged 60-65. The variable measured was cholesterol and blood pressure.

  • The mean blood pressure was 155 with a standard deviation of 12.
  • The mean cholesterol level was 230 with a standard deviation of 15
  • In both cases the data was normally distributed

Interpretation of these numbers

  • Blood pressure levels vary about the value 155 in males aged 60-65.
  • Cholesterol levels vary about the value 230 in males aged 60-65.

The sum of squares of deviations from the the mean can also be computed using the following identity:

n

x x x x

n i n i i i

n i i

2

1 1

2 1

2

= = =

To use this identity we need to compute:

1 2 and 1 n

n i

∑ xi^ = x + x + + x

=

L

12 22 2 1

n (^2) n i

∑ xi^ = x + x + + x

=

L

Then:

n

x x x x

n i n i i i

n i i

2

1 1

2 1

2

= = =

and

2

1 1

2 1

2 2 −

= = = n

n

x x n

x x s

n i n i i i

n i i

and 2

1 1

2 1

2

= = = n

n

x x n

x x s

n i n i i i

n i i

Example The data Verbal IQ on n = 23 students arranged in increasing order is: 80 82 84 86 86 89 90 94 94 95 95 96 99 99 102 102 104 105 105 109 111 118 119

= 80 + 82 + 84 + 86 + 86 + 89

  • 90 + 94 + 94 + 95 + 95 + 96
  • 99 + 99 + 102 + 102 + 104
  • 105 + 105 + 109 + 111 + 118
  • 119 = 2244 = 80^2 + 82^2 + 84^2 + 86^2 + 86^2 + 89^2
  • 90^2 + 94^2 + 94^2 + 95^2 + 95^2 + 96^2
  • 99^2 + 99^2 + 102^2 + 102^2 + 104^2
  • 105^2 + 105^2 + 109^2 + 111^2
  • 118^2 + 119^2 = 221494

=

n i

xi 1

=

n i

xi 1

2

A quick (rough) calculation of s

The reason for this is that approximately all (95%) of the observations are between and Thus

s ≈^ Range

x − 2 s x + 2 s. max ≈ x + 2 s and min≈ x − 2 s.

and Range =max−min≈ ( x + 2 s ) −( x − 2 s ).

= 4 s 4 Hence s ≈Range

Example Verbal IQ on n = 23 students min = 80 and max = 119

This compares with the exact value of s which is 10.782. The rough method is useful for checking your calculation of s.

s ≈^119 -^80 = =

The Pseudo Standard Deviation (PSD)

Definition: The Pseudo Standard Deviation (PSD) is defined by:

InterQuartile Range

  1. 35

PSD =IQR=

Properties

  • For Normal distributions the magnitude of the pseudo standard deviation ( PSD ) and the standard deviation ( s ) will be approximately the same value
  • For leptokurtic distributions the standard deviation ( s ) will be larger than the pseudo standard deviation ( PSD )
  • For platykurtic distributions the standard deviation ( s ) will be smaller than the pseudo standard deviation ( PSD )

Example Verbal IQ on n = 23 students Inter-Quartile Range = IQR = Q 3 - Q 1 = 105 – 89 = 16 Pseudo standard deviation

This compares with the standard deviation

=PSD = 1 IQR. 35 = 116. 35 = 11. 85

s = 10. 782

  • An outlier is a “wild” observation in the data
  • Outliers occur because
    • of errors (typographical and computational)
    • Extreme cases in the population
  • We will now consider the drawing of box- plots where outliers are identified
  • Observations that are between the lower and upper fences are considered to be non- outliers.
  • Observations that are outside the inner fences but not outside the outer fences are considered to be mild outliers.
  • Observations that are outside outer fences are considered to be extreme outliers.
  • mild outliers are plotted individually in a box-plot using the symbol
  • extreme outliers are plotted individually in a box-plot using the symbol
  • non-outliers are represented with the box and whiskers with - Max = largest observation within the fences - Min = smallest observation within the fences

Inner fences Outer fence

Mild outliers

Box-Whisker plot Extreme outlier representing the data that are not outliers

Measures of Shape

  • Skewness
  • Kurtosis

0.020.04 0 0.060.080.

0.120.140.

0 5 10 15 20 25 0.02^0 0.040.060.

0.120.140.

0.02 (^00 5 10 15 20 ) 0.040.060.

0.120.140. 0 5 10 15 20 25

0.020.04 0 0.060.080.

0.120. -3 -2 -1 00 1 2 3 0 5 10 15 20 25 -3 -2 -1 00 1 2 3

  • Skewness – based on the sum of cubes
  • Kurtosis – based on the sum of 4th^ powers

∑^ (^ )

=

n i

xi x 1

3

∑^ (^ )

=

n i

xi x 1

4