Financial Statement Analysis and Zeta Credit Risk, Study Guides, Projects, Research of Finance

Solutions to tutorial questions from an msc finance course. The first question focuses on adjusting the financial statements of the bowie company to account for off-balance sheet commitments. The second question discusses the zeta credit risk model and its limitations in predicting bankruptcy. Questions cover topics such as financial analysis, off-balance sheet financing, and credit risk.

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2010/2011

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FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS MSc Finance
SOLUTIONS
Tutorials week commencing 14th December 2009
1. The Bowie Company
The most simplistic approach to this question would involve adjusting Bowie’s debt by increasing it with respect
to the (present) value of obligations associated with each of the items mentioned in the notes.
Thus increase debt by 20 + 5 + 7 = £32 m (i.e. the present value of the obligations associated with the lease +
the amount of the loan guaranteed + the present value of the obligations to buy from supplier). Since there is no
effect on equity, the adjusted debt/equity ratio is 2.2 (rather than 0.6). Gearing appears much higher.
b) Reasons for entering into these off-balance sheet commitments:
1. Avoidance of or mitigation of the risk of violating debt covenant restrictions (i.e. lenders often put a clause in
their contracts which oblige borrowers to repay their loans in full if their debt/equity ratio rises above a specific
point).
2. In the case of operating leases, leased assets revert to lessor after eight years, limiting the risk of obsolescence
(i.e. having assets in the balance sheet which are depreciating and yet no longer have any value for the
company).
3. The decision to guarantee Crockett’s borrowing may lower the interest charged on this borrowing, thus
increasing the profitability of a subsidiary. These benefits could be passed on to Bowie through an advantageous
transfer pricing arrangement.
4. The long-term contract with PEPE may secure the supply of an integral component in Bowie’s operations and
give them the leverage to demand a better deal on price or quality. These advantages would be over and above
those already gained from bulk buying etc.
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FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS MSc Finance

SOLUTIONS

Tutorials week commencing 14 th December 2009

  1. The Bowie Company

The most simplistic approach to this question would involve adjusting Bowie’s debt by increasing it with respect to the (present) value of obligations associated with each of the items mentioned in the notes.

Thus increase debt by 20 + 5 + 7 = £32 m (i.e. the present value of the obligations associated with the lease + the amount of the loan guaranteed + the present value of the obligations to buy from supplier). Since there is no effect on equity, the adjusted debt/equity ratio is 2.2 (rather than 0.6). Gearing appears much higher.

b) Reasons for entering into these off-balance sheet commitments:

  1. Avoidance of or mitigation of the risk of violating debt covenant restrictions (i.e. lenders often put a clause in their contracts which oblige borrowers to repay their loans in full if their debt/equity ratio rises above a specific point).
  2. In the case of operating leases, leased assets revert to lessor after eight years, limiting the risk of obsolescence (i.e. having assets in the balance sheet which are depreciating and yet no longer have any value for the company).
  3. The decision to guarantee Crockett’s borrowing may lower the interest charged on this borrowing, thus increasing the profitability of a subsidiary. These benefits could be passed on to Bowie through an advantageous transfer pricing arrangement.
  4. The long-term contract with PEPE may secure the supply of an integral component in Bowie’s operations and give them the leverage to demand a better deal on price or quality. These advantages would be over and above those already gained from bulk buying etc.

c) Additional information which analysts would require to reach a more accurate decision on readjustment:

  1. (Lease) Useful life of leased assets, conditions under which lease can be cancelled, nature of leased assets (i.e. are they critical for Bowie’s operations, can they be leased elsewhere).
  2. (Bond guarantee) Financial situation of Crockett subsidiary, likelihood of default, existence of bond covenants.
  3. (Supply contract) Likelihood of finding alternative supplier, quantity to be purchased relative to total needs, price provisions of contract.

Q2 ZETA® CREDIT RISK

We are given information summarising the Zeta score, how it is arrived at and what it is meant to indicate (p1), then we are given a detailed report of the Zeta score for Pan Am airlines (p2) and finally a table of the Zeta scores of eleven other airlines in the industry, for the same time period, as a means of comparison (p3).

1) What distinctions are being made in this statement?

Mainly a clear distinction is drawn between providing information on past bankruptcies (which the Zeta score

does) and predicting future bankruptcies (which the Zeta score does not). Also, Zeta tells us it is not their intention to predict bankruptcy, making it clear that they have not failed in their goal by not doing so.

Why might Zeta not forecast failure or non-failure?

  • Can newspapers be trusted to fairly represent the parties they report on?
  • Can the release of sensitive information to investors create a bankruptcy where on may not have happened?
  • Does the public have a right to know all the available information even if they may base their decisions on information they don’t understand?
  • Is it better to have no information or misleading information?