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Solutions to tutorial questions from an msc finance course. The first question focuses on adjusting the financial statements of the bowie company to account for off-balance sheet commitments. The second question discusses the zeta credit risk model and its limitations in predicting bankruptcy. Questions cover topics such as financial analysis, off-balance sheet financing, and credit risk.
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The most simplistic approach to this question would involve adjusting Bowie’s debt by increasing it with respect to the (present) value of obligations associated with each of the items mentioned in the notes.
Thus increase debt by 20 + 5 + 7 = £32 m (i.e. the present value of the obligations associated with the lease + the amount of the loan guaranteed + the present value of the obligations to buy from supplier). Since there is no effect on equity, the adjusted debt/equity ratio is 2.2 (rather than 0.6). Gearing appears much higher.
b) Reasons for entering into these off-balance sheet commitments:
c) Additional information which analysts would require to reach a more accurate decision on readjustment:
We are given information summarising the Zeta score, how it is arrived at and what it is meant to indicate (p1), then we are given a detailed report of the Zeta score for Pan Am airlines (p2) and finally a table of the Zeta scores of eleven other airlines in the industry, for the same time period, as a means of comparison (p3).
1) What distinctions are being made in this statement?
Mainly a clear distinction is drawn between providing information on past bankruptcies (which the Zeta score
does) and predicting future bankruptcies (which the Zeta score does not). Also, Zeta tells us it is not their intention to predict bankruptcy, making it clear that they have not failed in their goal by not doing so.
Why might Zeta not forecast failure or non-failure?