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Overview of HR planning and forecasting techniques, including event-based, transaction-based, and process-based forecasting. Covers key concepts like HR demand/supply, forecasting methods, skills inventory, turnover costs, and HR technologies. Discusses the 5C model of HRM impact.
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Event-based forecasting - Forecasting concerned with changes in the external environment. Transaction-base Forecasting - Forecasting that focuses on tracking internal change instituted by the organization's management. Process-based Forecasting - Forecasting not focused on a specific internal event but on the flow or sequence of several work activities. HR Forecasting - The heart of the HR planning process; can be defined as ascertaining the net requirement for personnel by determining the demand for and supply of human resources now and in the future. Human Resources Demand - The organization's projected requirement for human resources. Human Resources Supply - The source of workers to meet demand requirements, obtained either internally or externally. Designated Groups - Groups deemed to require special attention due to persistent disadvantages they face in the labour market: aboriginals, women, visible minorities and person's with disabilities. Current forecast or short-term forecast - A forecast to meet the current needs of the organization (1 year). Short-run Forecast - A forecast looking just beyond the current forecast (1-2 years). Medium-run Forecast - A forecast that looks 2-5 years out. Long-run Forecast - Due to uncertainty and possible changes, this forecast must be flexible and usually only looks 5+ years out. Prediction - A single numerical estimate of HR requirements associated with a specific time horizon and set of assumptions. Projection - Several HR estimates based on a variety of assumptions. Envelope - An analogy in which one can easily visualize the corners of an envelope containing the upper and lower limits (or bounds) of the various HR projections extending into the future. External Supply Requirements - Replacement + Change Supply Components
Replacement - Hiring to replace all normal losses Change Supply - Increase (or Decrease) in the overall staffing level HR Surplus - That which occurs when the internal workforce supply exceeds the organizations's requirement or demand for personnel. Job Sharing - That which occurs when two or more employees perform the duties of one full-time position, each sharing the work activities on a part-time basis. Worksharing - A federal government program that aims to help organizations mitigate temporary layoffs through a redistribution of work, earnings and leisure time. Attrition - The process of reducing an HR surplus by allowing the size of the workforce to decline naturally because of the normal pattern of losses associated with retirements, deaths, voluntary turnover, etc. Hiring Freeze - A prohibition on all recruiting activities. Trend Analysis - A foecasting method that extrapolates from historical organization indices. Ratio Analysis - A quantitative method of projecting HR demand by analyzing the relationship between an operational index and the number of employees required. Regression Analysis - Presupposes that a linear relationship exists between one or more independent (causal) variables, which are predicted to affect the dependent (target) variable (i.e. HR demand). Envelope/Scenario Planning - Projections or multiple-predictor estimates of future HR demand based on a variety of differing assumptions about how future organizational events will unfold. Delphi Technique - A process which the forecasts and judgements of a selected group of experts are solicited and summarized in an attempt to determine the future HR demand. Disadvantages of Delphi Technique - Time and Cost Results cannot be statistically validated Too many experts from the same background/field may not be as innovative Delphi Technique Stages - 1. Define and refine the issue or question
The Soft Costs of Turnover - - Lost relationships and business contacts
Scripted Demo - An in-person demonstration of the product that follows a clear agenda that you have prepared for vendors. The 5C Model of HRM Impact - 1. Compliance