Inflation - everything related, Study notes of Economics

Definition Measurement Target Causes Costs/Impact Interest rates

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INFLATION
Definition
Inflation is a sustained rise in the cost of living and average price level.
2 types of inflation and their main causes (Important for Section A and
Section B):
1. Demand-pull inflation
this occurs when the economy grows quickly and starts
to
overheat
Aggregate demand (AD) will be increasing faster than aggregate
supply (LRAS).
2. 2. Cost push inflation
this occurs when there is a rise in the price of raw
materials, higher taxes, etc.
What are the main causes of Demand-Pull Inflation?
1. A
depreciation of the exchange rate
increases the price of imports and reduces
the foreign price of a country's exports. If consumers buy fewer imports, while exports
grow, AD will rise
and there may be a multiplier effect on the level of demand and
output.
2.
Higher demand from a fiscal stimulus
e.g. lower direct or indirect taxes or higher
government spending. If direct taxes are reduced, consumers have more disposable
income causing demand to rise. Higher government spending and increased borrowing
creates extra demand in the circular flow.
What are the main causes of Cost-push Inflation?
3.
Higher indirect taxes
for example a rise in the duty on alcohol, fuels and
cigarettes, or a rise in Value Added Tax. Depending on the price elasticity of demand
and supply for their products, suppliers may choose to pass on the burden of the tax
onto consumers.
4.
Increase in the prices of raw materials and components:
An increase in the
prices of raw materials and other components might be a result of an increase in
commodity prices, such as oil and copper. A recent example is the price of wheat.
Costs of Inflation (with evaluation under some costs) (6 marks without
evaluation, 10 marks with evaluation)
1. Reduced international competitiveness
If a country has a relatively higher inflation rate than its trading partners, then its exports will
become less competitive, leading to a fall in demand and deterioration in the UK current account.
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INFLATION

Definition – Inflation is a sustained rise in the cost of living and average price level.

2 types of inflation and their main causes (Important for Section A and

Section B):

1. Demand-pull inflation – this occurs when the economy grows quickly and starts

to ‘overheat’ – Aggregate demand (AD) will be increasing faster than aggregate

supply (LRAS).

2. 2. Cost push inflation – this occurs when there is a rise in the price of raw

materials, higher taxes, etc.

What are the main causes of Demand-Pull Inflation?

1. A depreciation of the exchange rate increases the price of imports and reduces

the foreign price of a country's exports. If consumers buy fewer imports, while exports

grow, AD will rise – and there may be a multiplier effect on the level of demand and

output.

2. Higher demand from a fiscal stimulus e.g. lower direct or indirect taxes or higher

government spending. If direct taxes are reduced, consumers have more disposable

income causing demand to rise. Higher government spending and increased borrowing

creates extra demand in the circular flow.

What are the main causes of Cost-push Inflation?

3. Higher indirect taxes – for example a rise in the duty on alcohol, fuels and

cigarettes, or a rise in Value Added Tax. Depending on the price elasticity of demand

and supply for their products, suppliers may choose to pass on the burden of the tax

onto consumers.

4. Increase in the prices of raw materials and components: An increase in the

prices of raw materials and other components might be a result of an increase in

commodity prices, such as oil and copper. A recent example is the price of wheat.

Costs of Inflation (with evaluation under some costs) (6 marks without

evaluation, 10 marks with evaluation)

1. Reduced international competitiveness

If a country has a relatively higher inflation rate than its trading partners, then its exports will become less competitive, leading to a fall in demand and deterioration in the UK current account.

This is particularly a problem for a country in a fixed exchange rate. For example, countries in the Euro, such as Greece, Ireland and Spain experienced higher inflation than northern Eurozone, leading to record current account deficits. The uncompetitiveness also caused a fall in economic growth. However, if a country is in a floating exchange rate – then the high inflation can be offset by depreciation in the currency.

  1. Confusion and uncertainty When inflation is high, people are more uncertain about what to spend their money on. Also, when inflation is high, firms are usually less willing to invest – because they are uncertain about future prices, profits and costs. This uncertainty and confusion can lead to lower rates of economic growth over the long term. This is one of the main concerns about high inflation rates. Countries with low and stable inflation rates – tend to have improved economic performance over countries with higher inflation.
  2. Income redistribution Inflation will typically make borrowers better off and lenders worse off. Inflation reduces the value of savings, especially if the savings are in the form of cash or bank account with a very low-interest rate. Inflation tends to hit older people more. Often retired people rely on the interest from savings. High inflation can reduce the real value of their saving and real incomes. However, it does depend on the real rate of interest e.g. if a saver gets a higher rate of interest than the inflation rate, they will not lose out. This occurred in the period from 2003 to 2008. However, from 2008 to 2015, the inflation rate is higher than interest rates – and so savers were losing out in this period. The link between Money Supply and Inflation (Important for Multiple-choice questions) Increasing the money supply faster than the growth in real output will cause inflation. The reason is that there is more money chasing the same number of goods. Therefore, the increase in monetary demand causes firms to put up prices. If the money supply increases at the same rate as real output, then prices will stay the same. However, sometimes, even if money supply increases, there will be no inflation. This will be the case if the growth of real output will be equal to the growth of money supply. It is also difficult to measure money supply. Measuring Inflation – Consumer Price Index (usually 6 marks) Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a weighted measure of the average price level of goods and

Hyper-inflation: a period of very high rates of inflation, usually leading to a loss of confidence in a country’s currency.

How the exchange rate affects inflation:

 If there is depreciation in the exchange rate, it is likely to cause inflation to increase.

– (Import prices more expensive)

 An appreciation in the exchange rate will tend to reduce inflation. (Import prices

cheaper)

Why depreciation causes inflation

 Imported inflation: The price of imported goods will go up because they are more

expensive to buy from abroad

 Higher domestic demand: Cheaper exports increases demand for UK exports.

THere is also a reduction in demand for imported goods, shifting consumption to

domestic goods Therefore, there is an increase in domestic aggregate demand

(AD), and we may get demand pull inflation.

 Less incentive to cut costs: Manufacturers who export see an improvement in

competitiveness without making any effort. Some argue this may reduce their

incentive to cut costs, and therefore, we get higher inflation over the long term.

Therefore, a depreciation causes both cost-push inflation and demand pull

inflation.

Inflation and interest rates

Interest rates can influence the rate of inflation and the rate of economic growth.

The Bank of England changes the 'base' interest rate to try and target the

government's inflation rate of 2% +/-1. Generally, an increase in inflation leads to

higher interest rates. A fall in the inflation rate and lower growth leads to lower

interest rates.

Response to rising inflation regarding interest rates:

If inflation rises, generally, the Bank of England increases interest rates to reduce

inflationary pressures. Higher interest rates tend to reduce consumer spending.

This is because homeowners see an increase in the cost of their mortgage

payments and have less disposable income. Therefore, they spend less. Also,

higher interest rates increase the incentive to save and reduce the incentive to

borrow. Therefore, an increase in interest rates tends to reduce the rate of

economic growth and prevent inflationary pressures.

Response to a fall in the rate of inflation regarding interest rates:

If inflation falls below the target, there is likely to be a fall in the rate of economic

growth, and the Central Bank may fear a recession. Therefore, in response, they

may cut interest rates to try and boost economic growth.

 Lower interest rates increase motivation to borrow

 Lower interest rates mean cheaper mortgage payments and increase

disposable income – more spending, less saving.