Introduction to Probability - Exceptions - Lecture Notes | MATH 5010, Study notes of Probability and Statistics

Material Type: Notes; Class: Intro To Probability; Subject: Mathematics; University: University of Utah; Term: Summer 2008;

Typology: Study notes

Pre 2010

Uploaded on 08/31/2009

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Lecture 15
1. Expectations
Theorem 15.1. Let gbe a real-valued function of two variables, and (X,Y)have
joint mass function f. If the sum converges then
E[g(X,Y)] = !
x
!
y
g(x,y)f(x,y).
Corollary 15.2. For all a,breal,
E(aX +bY) = aEX+bEY.
Proof. Setting g(x,y) = ax +by yields
E(aX +bY) = !
x
!
y
(ax +by)f(x,y)
=!
x
ax !
y
f(x,y) + !
x
!
y
byf(x,y)
=a!
x
xfX(x) + b!
y
y!
x
f(x,y)
=aEX+b!
y
fY(y),
which is aEX+bEY.!
2. Covariance and correlation
53
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Lecture 15

1. Expectations

Theorem 15.1. Let g be a real-valued function of two variables, and (X, Y) have joint mass function f. If the sum converges then

E[g(X, Y)] =

x

y

g(x , y)f(x , y).

Corollary 15.2. For all a, b real,

E(aX + bY) = aEX + bEY.

Proof. Setting g(x , y) = ax + by yields

E(aX + bY) =

x

y

(ax + by)f(x , y)

=

x

ax

y

f(x , y) +

x

y

byf(x , y)

= a

x

xfX (x) + b

y

y

x

f(x , y)

= aEX + b

y

fY (y),

which is aEX + bEY.!

2. Covariance and correlation

Theorem 15.3 (Cauchy–Schwarz inequality). If E(X 2 ) and E(Y 2 ) are finite, then |E(XY)| "

E(X 2 ) E(Y 2 ).

Proof. Note that (XE(Y 2 ) − YE(XY)) (^2)

= X^2 (E(Y 2 ))^2 + Y 2 (E(XY))^2 − 2 XYE(Y 2 )E(XY). Therefore, we can take expectations of both side to find that

E

[(

XE(Y 2 ) − YE(XY))^2

]

= E(X 2 ) (E(Y 2 ))^2 + E(Y 2 ) (E(XY))^2 − 2E(Y 2 ) (E(XY))^2

= E(X^2 ) (E(Y 2 ))^2 − E(Y 2 ) (E(XY)) 2.

The left-hand side is # 0. Therefore, so is the right-hand side. Solve to find that E(X 2 )E(Y 2 ) # (E(XY)) 2. [If E(Y 2 ) > 0, then this is OK. Else, E(Y 2 ) = 0, which means that P{Y = 0 } = 1. In that case the result is true, but tautologically.]!

Thus, if E(X 2 ) and E(Y 2 ) are finite, then E(XY) is finite as well. In that case we can define the covariance between X and Y to be Cov(X, Y) = E [(X − EX)(Y − EY)]. (12) Because (X − EX)(Y − EY) = XY − XEY − YEX + EXEY, we obtain the following, which is the computationally useful formula for covariance: Cov(X, Y) = E(XY) − E(X)E(Y). (13) Note, in particular, that Cov(X, X) = Var(X).

Theorem 15.4. Suppose E(X 2 ) and E(Y 2 ) are finite. Then, for all nonrandom a, b, c, d: (1) Cov(aX + b , cY + d) = acCov(X, Y); (2) Var(X + Y) = Var(X) + Var(Y) + 2Cov(X, Y).

Proof. Let μ = EX and ν = EY for brevity. We then have Cov(aX + b , cY + d) = E [(aX + b − (aμ + b))(cY + d − (cν + d))] = E [(a(X − μ))(c(Y − ν))] = acCov(X, Y).