Probability with Engineering Applications - Problem Set 9 Solutions | ECE 313, Assignments of Statistics

Material Type: Assignment; Class: Probability with Engrg Applic; Subject: Electrical and Computer Engr; University: University of Illinois - Urbana-Champaign; Term: Fall 2006;

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University of Illinois Fall 2006
ECE 413: Solutions to Problem Set 9
1. (a) Given X=n, it must be that Y+W=n. Therefore, whenever k+l6=n,
P[{Y =k} {W =l} {X =n}] = 0 P[{Y =k} {W =l}|{X =n}] = 0. When n=k+l,
P[{Y =k} {W =l}|{X =k+l}] = P[{Y =k}|{X =k+l}] = k+l
kpk(1 p)l.
(b) Yand Ware not conditionally independent given the event {X =n}. In fact, they are very much
dependent since their sum is n.
(c) P[{Y =k} {W =l}] =
X
n=0
P[{Y =k} {W =l}|{X =n}]P{X =n}
=k+l
kpk(1 p)lexp(λ)λk+l
(k+l)! = exp(λp)(λp)k
k!·exp(λ(1 p))(λ(1 p))l
l!
=P{Y =k} · P{W =l}.
(d) Yes, Yand Ware unconditionally independent, even though they are conditionally very much
dependent.
This particular result (called Poisson splitting) has many applications. For example, suppose
that packets arriving at a server are placed into one of two queues with probabilities pand
(1 p) respectively. If the number of packets arriving per unit time is modeled as a Poisson
random variable with parameter λ, then the numbers of packets in the queues can be modeled
as independent Poisson random variables with parameters λp and λ(1 p). Conversely, if the
numbers of packets arriving per unit time on different ports are modeled as independent Poisson
random variables with parameters λi, then the total number of packets is a Poisson random
variable with parameter Pλi.
2. (a) F(u) =
0u < 0,
u2,0u < 1,
1, u 1.
is a valid CDF. P{|X| >0.5}=P{X >0.5}= 1 F(0.5) = 3
4.
(b) F(u) =
0u < 1,
2uu2,1u2,
1, u > 2.
is not a valid CDF since F(1) = 1 > F (2) = 0.
(c) F(u) = 1
2exp(2u)u0,
11
4exp(3u), u > 0,is not a valid CDF since it is not right-continuous at 0.
(d) F(u) = 1
2exp(2u)u < 0,
11
4exp(3u), u 0,is a valid CDF.
P{|X | >0.5}= 1 P{|X | 0.5}= 1 (F(0.5) F(0.5)) = 1
2exp(1) 1
4exp(1.5).
3. (a) P{X = 2}=FX(2+)FX(2) = 1
4,P{X <2}=FX(2) = 1
2,P{X >2}= 1 FX(2) = 1
4,
P{1 X 3}=FX(3) FX(1) = 7
81
4=5
8, and P{X >2| X >0}=P{X >2}
P{X >0}=2
7.
(b) E[X] is the area between the CDF and the line at height 1 as shown in the figure below. Elementary
geometry gives E[X] = 1
2×1×7
8+6
8+1
2+1
2×2×1
4=22
16 = 1.375.
University Problem Set #8: Solutions ECE 313
of Illinois Page 1 of 2 Spring 2003
1. (a) FX(1) = 1, FX(3/2) = 3/4. Thus, FX(u) is not a nondecreasing function and thus cannot be a valid CDF.
(b) Yes. FX(u) is a valid CDF, and is continuous except at u = 0.
P{|X| > 0.5} = 1 -–P{|X| 0.5} = 1 – (FX(0.5) – FX(–0.5)) = 1 – (FX(0.5) – FX(–0.5))
= 1 -–(1 – (1/4)exp(–3/2) – (1/2)exp(–1)) = (1/4)exp(–3/2) + (1/2) exp(–1).
(c) FX(u) is not right continuous at u = 0 and thus cannot be a valid CDF.
2.(a) P(works for exactly 2 hours) = P{X = 2} = FX(2+) – FX(2) = 1/4.
(b) P(works for more than 2 hours) = P{X > 2} = 1 – FX(2+) = 1/4.
(c) P(works for less than 2 hours) = P{X < 2} = FX(2) = 1/2.
(d) P(works for exactly 3 hours) = P{X = 3} = FX(3+) – FX(3) = 0.
(e) P(works for more than 1/2 but less than 3 hours) = P{1/2 < X < 3} = FX(3) – FX((1/2)+) = 7/8 – 3/16 =
11/16.
(f) P(works for more than 2 hours given that the student works at all) = P{X > 2|X > 0}
= P({X > 2}{X > 0})
P{X > 0} = P{X > 2}
P{X > 0} = 1 – FX(2+)
1 – FX(0+) = 1
4×8
7 = 2/7.
1
1234
F(u)
u
0.5
0.75
0.25
(g) The CDF is as shown, and as discussed in class, E[X] = shaded area between CDF and the line at height 1.
By elementary geometry, the shaded area is 1×(7/8 + 6/8)/2 + 1/2 + (1/2)×(2)×(1/4) = 22/16 = 1.375 hours.
Noncredit Exercise: How does this compare with the number reported by Eta Kappa Nu in their survey?
3.(a) E[X] =
0
P{X>u}du =
0
1
P{X>u}du +
1
2
P{X>u}du +
2
3
P{X>u}du + … But, X takes on only integer values.
Thus, for any given nonnegative integer k, it must be that for all u [k,k+1), P{X > u} = P{X > k}.
Hence,
k
k+1
P{X > u} du = P{X > k} and thus E[X] = P{X >0} + P{X >1} + … =
k=0
P{X > k}. This
is the CompE version: some spoilsport EEs insist on writing this result as E[X] =
k=1
P{X k} .
(b) If X is a geometric random variable with parameter p, then P{X > k} = P{first k trials ended in failure}
= (1–p)k. This formula holds even when k = 0, since obviously P{X > 0} = 1.
Hence, E[X] =
k=1
P{X k} =
k=0
P{X > k} =
k=0
(1–p)k = 1 + (1–p) + (1–p)2 + … = 1
1 – (1–p) = 1
p
4.(a) This is a valid pdf. (b) This is a valid pdf.
(c) This is not a valid pdf because the function is negative for 0 < u < 1. However,
0
1
ln u du = u ln u – u
1
0
= –1, so –ln u, u (0,1) is a valid pdf.
(d) This is not a valid pdf because the function is negative for u (0,1). Also, since the function is positive
for u (1,2), Cf(u) cannot be a valid pdf for any C.
(e) This is a valid pdf.
pf2

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Download Probability with Engineering Applications - Problem Set 9 Solutions | ECE 313 and more Assignments Statistics in PDF only on Docsity!

University of Illinois Fall 2006

ECE 413: Solutions to Problem Set 9

  1. (a) Given X = n, it must be that Y + W = n. Therefore, whenever k + l 6 = n, P [{Y = k} ∩ {W = l} ∩ {X = n}] = 0 ⇒ P [{Y = k} ∩ {W = l}|{X = n}] = 0. When n = k + l,

P [{Y = k} ∩ {W = l}|{X = k + l}] = P [{Y = k}|{X = k + l}] =

k + l k

pk(1 − p)l.

(b) Y and W are not conditionally independent given the event {X = n}. In fact, they are very much dependent since their sum is n.

(c) P [{Y = k} ∩ {W = l}] =

∑^ ∞

n=

P [{Y = k} ∩ {W = l}|{X = n}]P {X = n}

k + l k

pk(1 − p)l^ exp(−λ)

λk+l (k + l)!

= exp(−λp)

(λp)k k!

· exp(−λ(1 − p))

(λ(1 − p))l l! = P {Y = k} · P {W = l}. (d) Yes, Y and W are unconditionally independent, even though they are conditionally very much dependent. This particular result (called Poisson splitting) has many applications. For example, suppose that packets arriving at a server are placed into one of two queues with probabilities p and (1 − p) respectively. If the number of packets arriving per unit time is modeled as a Poisson random variable with parameter λ, then the numbers of packets in the queues can be modeled as independent Poisson random variables with parameters λp and λ(1 − p). Conversely, if the numbers of packets arriving per unit time on different ports are modeled as independent Poisson random variables with parameters λi, then the total number of packets is a Poisson random variable with parameter

λi.

  1. (a) F (u) =

0 u < 0 , u^2 , 0 ≤ u < 1 , 1 , u ≥ 1.

is a valid CDF. P {|X | > 0. 5 } = P {X > 0. 5 } = 1 − F (0.5) = 34.

(b) F (u) =

0 u < 1 , 2 u − u^2 , 1 ≤ u ≤ 2 , 1 , u > 2.

is not a valid CDF since F (1) = 1 > F (2) = 0.

(c) F (u) =

2 exp(2u)^ u^ ≤^0 , 1 − 14 exp(− 3 u), u > 0 , is^ not^ a valid CDF since it is not right-continuous at 0.

(d) F (u) =

2 exp(2u)^ u <^0 , 1 − 14 exp(− 3 u), u ≥ 0 , is a valid CDF. P {|X | > 0. 5 } = 1 − P {|X | ≤ 0. 5 } = 1 − (F (0.5) − F (− 0 .5)) = 12 exp(−1) − 14 exp(− 1 .5).

  1. (a) P {X = 2} = FX (2+) − FX (2−) =

4 ,^ P^ {X^ <^2 }^ =^ FX^ (

−) =^1

2 ,^ P^ {X^ >^2 }^ = 1^ −^ FX^ (2) =

P { 1 ≤ X ≤ 3 } = FX (3) − FX (1−) =

8 −^

8 , and^ P^ {X^ >^2 | X^ >^0 }^ =^

P {X > 2 }

P {X > 0 } =

(b) E[X ] is the area between the CDF and the line at height 1 as shown in the figure below. Elementary geometry gives E[X ] =^1 2

× 1 ×

+^6

+^1

+^1

× 2 × 1

=^22

University Problem Set #8: Solutions ECE 313 of Illinois Page 1 of 2 Spring 2003

1. (a) F (^) X (1) = 1, F (^) X (3/2) = 3/4. Thus, F (^) X (u) is not a nondecreasing function and thus cannot be a valid CDF. (b) Yes. F (^) X (u) is a valid CDF, and is continuous except at u = 0. P{| X | > 0.5} = 1 -–P{| X | ≤ 0.5} = 1 – (F (^) X (0.5) – F (^) X (–0.5–)) = 1 – (F (^) X (0.5) – F (^) X (–0.5)) = 1 -–(1 – (1/4)exp(–3/2) – (1/2)exp(–1)) = (1/4)exp(–3/2) + (1/2) exp(–1). (c) F (^) X (u) is not right continuous at u = 0 and thus cannot be a valid CDF.

2.(a) P(works for exactly 2 hours) = P{ X = 2} = F (^) X (2+) – F (^) X (2–^ ) = 1/4. (b) P(works for more than 2 hours) = P{ X > 2} = 1 – F (^) X (2+) = 1/4. (c) P(works for less than 2 hours) = P{ X < 2} = F (^) X (2–^ ) = 1/2. (d) P(works for exactly 3 hours) = P{ X = 3} = F (^) X (3+) – F (^) X (3–^ ) = 0. (e) P(works for more than 1/2 but less than 3 hours) = P{1/2 < X < 3} = F (^) X (3–^ ) – F (^) X ((1/2)+) = 7/8 – 3/16 = 11/16. (f) P(works for more than 2 hours given that the student works at all) = P{ X > 2| X > 0}

= P({ X^ > 2}P{ X ∩> 0}{ X^ > 0})= P{P{ XX^ > 2}> 0} =

1 – F X (2+)

1 – F X (0+)

=^14 ×^87 = 2/7.

F(u)

u

(g) The CDF is as shown, and as discussed in class, E[ X ] = shaded area between CDF and the line at height 1. By elementary geometry, the shaded area is 1×(7/8 + 6/8)/2 + 1/2 + (1/2)×(2)×(1/4) = 22/16 = 1.375 hours. Noncredit Exercise: How does this compare with the number reported by Eta Kappa Nu in their survey?

3.(a) E[ X ] = ∫

0

P{ X >u}du = ∫

0

1

P{ X >u}du + ∫

1

2

P{ X >u}du + ∫

2

3 P{ X >u}du + … But, X takes on only integer values.

Thus, for any given nonnegative integer k, it must be that for all u ∈ [k,k+1), P{ X > u} = P{ X > k}.

  1. (a) We break the integral into a sum of integrals over the intervals [k, k + 1) to get

E[X ] =

0

P {X > u} du =

∑^ ∞

k=

∫ (^) k+

k

P {X > u} du.

But, for each u ∈ [k, k + 1), P {X > u} has the same value P {X > k}. The k-th integral thus has a constant integrand P {X > k} and therefore evaluates to P {X > k}. Furthermore, if i = k+1, then P {X > k} = P {X ≥ k + 1} = P {X ≥ i}. Hence E[X ] =

k=0 P^ {X > k}^ =^

i=1 P^ {X^ ≥^ i}. (b) For k = 0, 1 , 2 ,.. ., P {X > k} = qk^ where q = 1 − p. Therefore,

E[X ] =

∑^ ∞

k=

P {X > k} =

∑^ ∞

k=

qk^ = 1 1 − q

=^1

p

(c)

∑^ ∞

k=

k · P {X > k} =

∑^ ∞

k=

k

∑^ ∞

l=k+

pX (l). Now, for any given l, the term pX (l) will appear only in

the sums for k = 0, 1 ,... , l − 1. Hence, (using LOTUS backwards!) we can write the sum as ∑^ ∞

k=

k · P {X > k} =

∑^ ∞

l=

pX (l)

∑^ l−^1

k=

k =

∑^ ∞

l=

pX (l) ·

l(l − 1) 2

E[X (X − 1)].

  1. If f (u) is a nonnegative (or nonpositive) function with finite nonzero area A, then A−^1 · f (u) is a valid pdf. This does not work if f (u) takes on both positive and negative values. (a) f (u) = 2u, 0 < u < 1 is a valid pdf. (b) f (u) = |u|, |u| < 12 is not a valid pdf, but 4 · f (u) is. (c) f (u) = 1 − |u|, |u| < 1 is a valid pdf. (d) f (u) = ln u, 0 < u < 1 is not a valid pdf but −f (u) is. (e) f (u) = ln u, 0 < u < 2 is not a valid pdf, nor is C · f (u) a valid pdf for any choice of C. (f) f (u) = 23 (u − 1), 0 < u < 3 , is not a valid pdf, nor is C · f (u) a valid pdf for any choice of C. (g) f (u) = exp(− 2 u), u > 0 is not a valid pdf but 2 · f (u) is. (h) f (u) = 4e−^2 u^ − e−u, u > 0 , is not a valid pdf, nor is C · f (u) a valid pdf for any choice of C. (i) f (u) = exp(−|u|), |u| < 1 is not a valid pdf but e/[2(e − 1)] · f (u) is.
  2. (a) P {X > 20 } =

20

u^2

du =

u

20

(b) FX (u 0 ) =

∫ (^) u 0

−∞

fX (u) du =

∫ (^) u 0

10

u^2

du =

u

u 0

10

u 0

. Note that FX (20) = 12 ; it should be!

(c) P {X > 15 } = 1 − FX (15) =

. Assuming that the device failures are independent, the probability that at least 3 of the 6 last for 15 hours (i.e., at most 3 fail) is a binomial probability:

P {at least 3 of 6 devices work for 15 hours} = P {at most 3 failures} =

∑^3

i=

i

)i ( 2 3

) 6 −i .