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Problem set #2 for students enrolled in ece 313 at the university of illinois during the summer 2003 semester. The problem set covers various topics in probability theory, including events, sample spaces, and conditional probabilities.
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Assigned: Thursday, June 19 Due: Thursday, June 26 Reading: Ross Chapters 2.1-2.5, 4.1-4. Noncredit Exercises: (Do not turn these in) Ross Chapter 1: Problems 1-5,7,9; Theoretical Exercises 4,8,13; Self-Test Problems 1-15. Chapter 2: Problems 3,4,9,10,11-14; Theoretical Exercises 10,20; Self-Test Problems 1-
1. Ross, Problem 6, page 59 (6th^ edition),or page 62 (5th^ edition), or page 55 (4th^ edition). 2. Consider an experiment with a finite sample space containing n equally likely outcomes. Thus, there are 2n^ different events defined on this sample space. (a) Show that 2 n-1^ events are comprised of an odd number of outcomes while 2n–1^ events are comprised of an even number of outcomes. (Zero is an even number) (b) Find the “average probability” of an event by adding up the probabilities of all 2n^ events and dividing the resulting sum by 2 n^. (c) How many of the 2n^ different events have probability equal to the average probability that you found in part (b)? (d) It was noted in class that when a trial of the experiment is performed, exactly 2 n–1^ events occur while the other 2n–1^ events do not occur. What is the average probability of the 2 n– events that do occur on a given trial of the experiment? If you cannot solve this problem for general n, solve it (for 50% credit) for the case n = 3 and Ω = {a,b,c}. If you choose to solve only this special case, then, in part (d), assume that outcome b occurs. 3. The experiment consists of picking a student from the set of all UIUC students registered this semester. It is not necessary to assume that all students are equally likely to be picked, but you may make this assumption if it makes you feel happier and more confident. (a) Let A and B denote the events that the student picked has had respectively four years of science (FYS) and calculus in high school. Let P(A) = 0.45 and P(B) = 0.35. If the probability that the student had neither FYS nor calculus is 0.3, what is the probability that the student had both FYS and calculus? What is the probability that the student had FYS but not calculus? (b) Let C denote the event that the student is registered in ECE 313, and let A and B be as in part (a). Suppose that P(A∩B∩C)=0.002. What is the probability that the student picked is not registered in ECE 313, but did have both FYS and calculus? If the probability that the student picked is registered in ECE 313, and has had either FYS or calculus (but not both) is 0.004, and if students who had neither FYS nor calculus did not register in ECE 313, what is P(C)? (c) Using the data given in parts (a) and (b), which of the following probabilities can you compute? It is not necessary to actually compute each probability. P(A∪C), P(A∪B∪C), P(A∪B∪Cc), P(AcBcCc), P(AcBCc), P(ABCc) 4. An experiment consists of observing the contents of an eight-bit shift register. Assume that all 2^8 = 256 bytes are equally likely to be the contents of the shift register. (a) Let A denote the event that the least significant bit in the shift register is a 1. What is P(A)?
of Illinois Page 2 of 3 Summer 2003
(b) Let B denote the event that the shift register contains 4 0’s and 4 1’s. What is P(B)? (c) What is P(A ∪ B)? What is P(A ∩ B)? What is the probability that exactly one of the events A and B occurs, i.e. what is P(A ⊕ B)?
5. Your mother has bought three servings of broccoli and two servings of cauliflower for next week. She chooses the vegetable to be served each day (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday) at random (i.e. with equal probability) from those that she still has on hand that day. (On Friday, she has no choice; whatever didn’t get served previously is what you are going to get!) (a) Define an appropriate sample space Ω and state how many outcomes are in Ω. (b) What is the probability of having broccoli on Monday? (c) What is the probability of having broccoli on Monday and Friday? (d) What is the probability of having respectively broccoli, broccoli, cauliflower, broccoli, and cauliflower on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday?
6. The manufacturer of a cereal tests samples from the production line to see if the samples snap, crackle, and pop as advertised. Let A, B, and C denote respectively the events that the sample does not snap, does not crackle, and does not pop. The manufacturer’s tests show that P(A) = 0.2, P(B) = P(C) = 0.3, P(AB∪BC∪AC) = 0.3, P(ABC) = 0.05, P(AB) = 0.1, and P(BC) = 2P(AC). (a) Sketch the sample space and indicate on it the events A, B, and C. (b) What is the probability that the cereal snaps, crackles, and pops? (c) Cereal that fails exactly one test is sold to discount supermarket chains at lower prices to be marketed under the brand names Soggies, Blecchies, and Mushies. What is the probability of the sample failing the snap test only? the crackle test only? the pop test only?
7. The experiment consists of picking a letter at random from the word CHATTANOOGA. (a) Define a sample space with 11 equally likely outcomes. What is the probability that the letter picked is a vowel? (b) Another way of setting up a probability space is to take Ω = {A,C,G,H,N,O,T} with the outcomes having unequal probabilities. What should be the probabilities assigned to these outcomes so that the probabilities of the various letters are the same as in part (a)? Now consider picking three letters at random (choosing a subset of size 3) from the letters in the word CHATTANOOGA. (c) What is the probability that the letters chosen can be arranged to form one of the common words CAT, HAT, OAT, TAN and ANT? (Doesn’t matter which word is formed) (d) Repeat part (c) assuming that sampling with replacement is being used (e) Both for sampling with replacement and for sampling without replacement, find the probability that the letters, as they are picked , form one of the 5 words of part (c) (doesn’t matter which one) without having to be re-arranged.
8.(a) Fred, Wilma, Barney, and Betty take turns (in that order) tossing a coin that has P(Heads) = p, 0 < p < 1. The first one to toss a Head wins the game. Calculate the win probabilities P(F), P(W), P(Ba) and P(Be) of the players and show that (i) P(F) > P(W) > P(Ba) > P(Be). (ii) P(F) + P(W) + P(Ba) + P(Be) = 1.