What is Probability - Statistical Techniques | PSY, Study notes of Psychology

Chapter Six Notes Material Type: Notes; Professor: Pessoa; Class: STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES; Subject: Psychology; University: Indiana University - Bloomington; Term: Fall 2010;

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Uploaded on 12/16/2010

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Probability
Probability allows us to establish a
formal link between populations and
samples.
Helps answer the following question:
Which samples can be (likely)
obtained given a certain population.
Inferential statistics utilizes this
information to make inferences
about populations from samples.
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Probability allows us to establish a formal link between populations and samples. Helps answer the following question: Which samples can be (likely) obtained given a certain population. Inferential statistics utilizes this information to make inferences about populations from samples.

What is Probability?

Relationship between samples and populations: What kinds of samples are likely?

Defining Probability

What is the probability of selecting a king from a deck of cards? Can be restated as: What proportion of the whole deck consists of kings? In both cases, “4 out of 52”. p(king) = 4/ Probabilities can be expressed as fractions, decimals, or as percentages. 4/52 = .0769 = 7.69%

Probability: Range of Values

Probabilities range from 0 to 1. Probabilities must have positive values (or zero).

“Equal Chance”

  1. Each individual has an equal chance of being selected. For a population with N individuals, each individual must have the same probability. p = 1/N

“Constant Probability”

  1. If more than one individual is selected, there must be constant probability for each selection. Constant probability requires sampling with replacement Consider the selection of n = 2 cards. p(jack of diamonds) = 1/ Second draw (assuming you are holding the first card): What is the probability of obtaining the jack of diamonds? p(jack of diamonds) = 1/51 if first card was not jack of diamonds p(jack of diamonds) = 0 if it was.

The Normal Distribution

Diagram:

The Normal Distribution

Properties:

  1. Symmetrical and unimodal (mean = median = mode).
  2. Mean (= median) divides distribution in half.
  3. Most of the scores are found around the mean. Extreme scores are found in the two tails.

The Normal Distribution

The normal distribution is symmetrical. This means that the proportions on both sides of the mean are identical. All normal distributions have the same proportions.

The Normal Distribution

Body height has a normal

distribution, with  = 68 inches, and 

= 6. If we select one person at random, what is the probability of selecting a person taller than 80? p (X > 80) =? z =

X - 

p(z > 2.0) =? p(X > 80) = p(z > +2.0) = 2.28%

The Unit Normal Table

Given the standard proportions of normal distributions we can give probabilities for z-scores with whole number values. But what about fractional z-scores? Need to use the unit normal table.

The Unit Normal Table

How the table is organized:

The Unit Normal Table

How do we use the unit normal table? Example: Find the proportion of the normal distribution corresponding to a z- score greater than z=+1.00. Draw a sketch … Then look up the value in the table.

The Unit Normal Table

For a normal distribution, what is the probability of selecting a z- score value greater than z=+1.0?