Probability Analysis of Borrower Cohort: Experience, Degree, and Loan Amount - Prof. L. Da, Assignments of Mathematics

Data on a group of borrowers and uses set notation and a venn diagram to analyze the probabilities of borrowers having specific characteristics, such as more than 10 years of experience, an advanced degree, and borrowing at least $3 million. The document also calculates the total number of borrowers and the probabilities of various events.

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Pre 2010

Uploaded on 08/31/2009

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Worksheet # 2: Basic Probability
We have the following information about the borrowers:
1. 10 borrowers had at least 10 years experience, had an advanced degree and borrowed at least
$3 million.
2. 11 had an advanced degree and borrowed at least $3 million.
3. 30 had an advanced degree.
4. 17 had at least 10 years experience and had an advanced degree.
5. 3 had at least 10 years experience, borrowed at least $3 million and did not have any
advanced degrees.
6. 2 had less than 10 years experience, had no advanced degrees and borrowed at least $3
million.
7. 8 had less than 10 years experience, had no advanced degrees and borrowed less than $3
million.
8. 16 had at least 10 years experience and borrowed less than $3 million.
We will define our events as follows:
A: the event the borrower has at least 10 years experience
B: the event the borrower has an advanced degree
C: the event the borrower borrowed at least $3 million
# Description Set Notation Region
1ABCR(5)
2BCR(5) & R(6)
3BR(2), R(3), R(5) & R(6)
4ABR(2) & R(5)
5ABCCR(4)
6ACBCCR(7)
7ACBCCCR(8)
8ACCR(1) & R(2)
We will use a Venn diagram to summarize all of the above information by counting all the various
regions of our sample space. There are 8 regions total as shown below:
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Worksheet # 2: Basic Probability

We have the following information about the borrowers:

  1. 10 borrowers had at least 10 years experience, had an advanced degree and borrowed at least $3 million.
  2. 11 had an advanced degree and borrowed at least $3 million.
  3. 30 had an advanced degree.
  4. 17 had at least 10 years experience and had an advanced degree.
  5. 3 had at least 10 years experience, borrowed at least $3 million and did not have any advanced degrees.
  6. 2 had less than 10 years experience, had no advanced degrees and borrowed at least $ million.
  7. 8 had less than 10 years experience, had no advanced degrees and borrowed less than $ million.
  8. 16 had at least 10 years experience and borrowed less than $3 million.

We will define our events as follows: A: the event the borrower has at least 10 years experience B: the event the borrower has an advanced degree C: the event the borrower borrowed at least $3 million

Description Set Notation Region

1 A ∩ B ∩ C R(5) 2 B ∩ C R(5) & R(6) 3 B R(2), R(3), R(5) & R(6) 4 A ∩ B R(2) & R(5) 5 A ∩ BC^ ∩ C R(4) 6 AC^ ∩ BC^ ∩ C R(7) 7 AC^ ∩ BC^ ∩ CC^ R(8) 8 A ∩ CC^ R(1) & R(2)

We will use a Venn diagram to summarize all of the above information by counting all the various regions of our sample space. There are 8 regions total as shown below:

Figure 1: Borrower Venn Diagram

- R(5) = From our Venn Diagram we write the following set of equations: - R(5) + R(6) =
  • R(2) + R(3) + R(5) + R(6) = - R(2) + R(5) = - R(4) = - R(7) = - R(8) = - R(1) + R(2) =
    • R(1) = If we solve for all the unknown regions, we get the following:
    • R(2) =
    • R(3) =
    • R(4) =
    • R(5) =
    • R(6) =
    • R(7) =
    • R(8) =