a. Policy Scenarios Modeled in the Research
The paper analyzes three main alternative policy scenarios, compared to a baseline (BAU), for the
Honduran power sector:
1. Business-as-Usual (BAU)
o Based on the Honduran Secretary of Energy’s “Scenario 2” from its official long-term
energy expansion plan.
o Relies heavily on bunker fuel and natural gas with limited renewable growth and no
carbon mitigation strategies.
2. Unrestricted (Minimum-Cost) Scenario
o Prioritizes cost minimization with no emissions cap or renewable energy mandates.
o Allows continued use of fossil fuels if economically favorable.
o Leads to significant deployment of wind and natural gas, with system costs dropping
substantially.
3. Decarbonization Scenario
o Aligns with Honduras’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
o Imposes strict carbon emission caps: 9% of 2018 levels by 2030 and 100% reduction by
2050.
o Requires high deployment of solar PV, battery energy storage systems (BESS), and wind
power.
4. Low Carbon CCS Scenario
o Similar to the decarbonization pathway but allows Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
technology.
o Emissions capped at 0.05 MtCO₂e/year by 2050, accounting for storage leakages.
o Uses a mix of natural gas with CCS and renewables.
b. Description of the Figure
Figure 4 shows expected median and peak day electricity dispatch by 2050 for:
• Top panel: Unrestricted scenario
• Bottom panel: Decarbonization scenario
Key observations:
• Unrestricted Scenario (Top):
